Nickel prices fell during trading on Friday amid ongoing concerns about disruptions to metal supplies across the Middle East due to the escalating war between the United States and Iran.

Nickel prices could rise further during the current year as the global market may shift into a supply deficit, following production restrictions imposed by Indonesia — the world’s largest producer — according to Macquarie Group.

The Indonesian government announced in December 2025 stricter quotas and tighter regulation of nickel supplies to address the global surplus and support prices that had been under pressure. Since then, nickel prices as well as related products such as nickel pig iron, nickel sulfate, and nickel ore have risen.

With global supply continuing to tighten, Macquarie strategists led by Jim Lennon expect nickel prices to continue rising amid higher prices for end products and increasing production costs. The bank noted that the rise in the local premium for nickel ore in Indonesia led to an increase of nearly $3,000 in nickel pig iron prices, which supported gains on the London Metal Exchange.

Bank analysts believe that nickel traded on the London Metal Exchange could find support between $17,000 and $18,000 per ton, a range close to the level at which the metal is currently trading.

Production decline risks

The Australian bank also indicated that nickel prices could rise further, as production may not increase this year due to Indonesian restrictions, which could push the global market into a supply deficit compared with previous expectations of a surplus of about 90,000 tons.

Japan’s Sumitomo Metal Mining had previously expected the global nickel surplus to reach 256,000 tons by 2026.

A shortage of limonite ore and the collapse of a mining tailings dam in Indonesia’s Morowali region also negatively affected production of MHP (Mixed Hydroxide Precipitate) extracted from laterite ores.

The bank added that any prolonged disruptions in sulfur supplies from the Middle East could also affect future production plans, along with the possibility of delays in some expansion projects for new production capacity.

During January and February, estimates indicate that nickel pig iron production fell about 10% year-on-year, partly due to lower ore quality and also because some furnaces were converted to produce nickel matte, which offers higher returns compared with NPI.

In trading, nickel spot contracts fell 2.1% to $17,100 per ton at 17:14 GMT.

Bitcoin rose on Friday, extending its recent gains and recording its highest level in a week, supported by hopes for more supportive regulation of the cryptocurrency sector in the United States, which helped markets move past ongoing concerns about the war between the United States, Israel, and Iran.

The world’s largest cryptocurrency rose about 3% to $71,529.7 as of 01:49 Eastern Time (05:49 GMT) and is heading for weekly gains, while the recent pause in rising oil prices helped provide some support to markets.

Bitcoin is expected to record weekly gains of about 6.5%, outperforming most high-risk assets despite pressure stemming from the war with Iran.

Gains in cryptocurrencies came mainly after the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission announced on Wednesday that they would cooperate to establish a more comprehensive regulatory framework for US markets.

Under the agreement, the two agencies indicated they would work together to present a federal policy that includes an “appropriate regulatory framework for crypto assets and emerging technologies.” The initiative is called the “Joint Coordination Initiative” and aims to establish formal protocols for data sharing, streamline reporting requirements, and end separate regulatory procedures related to cryptocurrencies between the two agencies.

Although the agreement is not legally binding, it has boosted optimism about the possibility of establishing a clearer regulatory framework for the digital asset sector. This aligns with US President Donald Trump’s pledges to provide greater regulatory clarity for the industry after appointing crypto-friendly leadership at both agencies.

War concerns weigh on risk appetite

Despite the rise, Bitcoin’s gains still appear fragile, especially after the currency experienced sharp volatility following a series of sudden market collapses in late 2025.

Risk appetite in global markets also remained weak, with stock markets facing heavy selling pressure due to investor concerns about the consequences of the war between the United States, Israel, and Iran.

The inflationary impact of the war is one of the main concerns, as continued disruptions in oil markets could push crude prices higher, supporting a rise in global inflation. This could prompt major central banks to adopt tighter monetary policies, a scenario that typically does not favor cryptocurrencies and speculative assets.

Altcoins rise alongside Bitcoin

Other cryptocurrencies also rose alongside Bitcoin. Ethereum, the world’s second-largest cryptocurrency, climbed 3.9% to $2,109.48, while Ripple rose about 3.6% to $1.4218.

Oil prices fell on Friday after an Indian oil tanker passed through the Strait of Hormuz and as the United States moved to ease supply concerns. However, prices remain on track for weekly gains as disruptions linked to the conflict in the Middle East persist.

Brent crude futures for May delivery fell by 92 cents, or 0.9%, to $99.54 per barrel at 12:34 GMT, but are heading for a weekly gain of about 8%. US West Texas Intermediate crude for April delivery dropped $1.64, or 1.7%, to $94.09 per barrel, with prices expected to rise about 4% over the week.

An Indian government official said an Indian-flagged oil tanker left the eastern side of the Strait of Hormuz carrying a cargo of gasoline bound for Africa. However, analysts warned that the passage of some shipments does not mean the sea route has fully reopened.

Tamas Varga, oil analyst at brokerage PVM Oil Associates, said that some oil is passing through the strait but that does not mean it will be fully reopened, adding that the current decline in prices may be temporary.

In an attempt to ease pressure on markets, the United States issued a 30-day license allowing countries to purchase Russian oil and oil products stranded at sea. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the move aims to stabilize global energy markets affected by the war between the United States, Israel, and Iran.

According to Kirill Dmitriev, the Russian presidential envoy, the decision could involve around 100 million barrels of Russian oil, roughly equivalent to one day of global oil production.

Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodities analyst at Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken, said Russian oil was already on its way to buyers, but the decision helps reduce some market obstacles. He added that the main concern for markets is the possibility that the war could last longer, especially if oil infrastructure suffers major damage that could lead to a permanent loss of supply.

The announcement regarding Russian oil came one day after the US Department of Energy said Washington would release 172 million barrels from its strategic petroleum reserve in an attempt to curb rising prices. The move was coordinated with the International Energy Agency, which approved the release of a record 400 million barrels from strategic reserves.

However, the temporary calm created by the announcement quickly faded as tensions escalated in the Middle East, according to Tony Sycamore, market analyst at IG Group.

Iran’s new Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei confirmed that Iran will continue fighting and will keep the Strait of Hormuz closed as leverage against the United States and Israel. Iraqi security officials also reported that two fuel tankers in Iraqi waters were attacked by Iranian explosive-laden boats, while Iraqi authorities announced a complete halt to oil port operations.

US President Donald Trump had said that the United States could make significant profits from higher oil prices resulting from the war with Iran, but stressed that preventing Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon remains the top priority.

Benchmark crude prices surged more than 9% on Thursday, reaching their highest levels since August 2022.

Goldman Sachs expects Brent crude to average more than $100 per barrel in March and $85 in April, as energy markets remain volatile due to the war with Iran, damage to energy infrastructure in the Middle East, and disruptions to navigation in the Strait of Hormuz.

Analysts believe Brent crude has stronger support compared with West Texas Intermediate because Europe is more exposed to energy security risks, while the United States can mitigate those risks thanks to its domestic production, according to Imreel Jamil, analyst at London Stock Exchange Group.

In a sign that disruptions could last longer, sources told Reuters that Iran has deployed around 12 naval mines in the strait, which could complicate reopening the vital shipping route.

In the same context, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in an interview with Sky News that the US Navy may escort ships through the Strait of Hormuz, possibly as part of an international coalition, when that becomes militarily feasible.

The US dollar is heading toward its second consecutive weekly gain on Friday as investors turn to safe-haven assets amid the escalating war in the Middle East, while energy-sensitive currencies such as the euro and the yen fell to their lowest levels in several months.

The sharp and prolonged rise in oil prices is expected to significantly affect the economies of Japan and the eurozone, both of which rely heavily on crude oil imports, while the United States remains relatively less affected as it has been a net exporter of oil for nearly a decade.

At the same time, economists are expressing caution about tightening monetary policy in those economies, as their heavy dependence on fuel imports means that rising energy costs could weigh on economic growth.

The euro fell to its weakest level since August, while Japan warned that it is ready to take action to protect its currency after the yen dropped to a 20-month low.

As oil prices rise, the United States has allowed the sale of some Russian oil products that had been under sanctions due to the war in Ukraine. Meanwhile, Iran has intensified attacks on oil and transportation facilities across the Middle East, while the new Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei pledged to keep the shipping route through the Strait of Hormuz closed.

Volkmar Baur, currency strategist at Commerzbank, said that recent statements by the US administration about the possibility of a quick end to the war now appear closer to attempts to push oil prices lower again, adding that markets are responding to such signals less and less.

Markets have also increased bets on tighter monetary policy on both sides of the Atlantic, with higher oil prices expected to intensify inflationary pressures.

Brent crude futures rose on Friday as the United States sought to calm supply concerns by issuing a 30-day license allowing countries to purchase Russian oil and oil products stranded at sea. Earlier this week, the International Energy Agency approved the release of a record 400 million barrels from strategic reserves.

However, some analysts believe that emergency measures to address supply disruptions could send a subtle negative signal to markets, suggesting that global leaders see little room for a quick de-escalation.

The dollar index, which measures the performance of the US currency against a basket of major currencies, rose to its highest level since November 28, supported by its safe-haven appeal and by the United States being a net energy exporter. The index rose 0.51% to 100.22 and is heading for a weekly gain of about 1.4%.

Euro at a seven-and-a-half-month low

The euro fell to $1.1438, its lowest level since August, down 0.62%. Investors are awaiting the European Central Bank’s monetary policy meeting next week, while traders are betting that higher oil prices could push the bank to raise interest rates later this year.

Economists believe that a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz would be necessary to justify tightening monetary policy by the European Central Bank to combat inflation.

However, analysts at Citi said that two precautionary interest rate hikes cannot be ruled out, although their base scenario remains that policy will stay unchanged due to the prevailing uncertainty.

The dollar also rose to its highest level since January against the Swiss franc at 0.7894.

Yen approaches intervention zone

The yen fell to 159.69 against the dollar, its weakest level since July 2024. Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said the country is ready to take the necessary steps to address currency movements that affect people’s lives, adding that Japan is in close contact with US authorities regarding foreign exchange market issues.

The yen’s weakness toward the 160 level against the dollar in January prompted the United States to conduct what are known as interest rate checks, which often precede market intervention, helping support the Japanese currency at the time. However, some analysts believe that the recent hesitation by officials to verbally support the yen could push it down to 165 against the dollar.

Chris Turner, head of currency strategy at ING, said that potential joint intervention with the US Federal Reserve could be more effective and sustainable, but noted that the main issue is that the dollar/yen pair will not decline sustainably unless energy prices fall.

The Australian dollar also fell 0.70% to $0.7027.