Nickel prices fell on Monday as the dollar strengthened against most major currencies, with traders returning to Federal Reserve policy bets.

Bank forecasts on metals

Goldman Sachs said in a research note published last month that copper prices are expected to remain within a range of 10,000 to 11,000 dollars per metric ton in 2026 and 2027 due to a market surplus, although the long-term outlook for industrial metals remains positive.

The bank pointed to three key factors that could limit the upside potential for copper prices:

Chinese buyers may scale back purchases if prices rise above 11,000 dollars per ton, as occurred in the second quarter of 2024.

A surplus in U.S. inventories, which could quickly help rebalance the market if price spreads on the London Metal Exchange narrow.

An overestimation of data-center-related demand, which may have been lower than initial projections.

Goldman: Indonesian producers’ margins will dictate nickel’s path

On the nickel market, Goldman Sachs said Indonesian producers’ profit margins need to fall further in order to curb supply growth and reverse the ongoing market surplus.

The bank expects nickel prices to decline by 6% to reach 14,500 dollars per metric ton by December 2026.

Aluminum market seen in surplus, with prices returning to current levels only by 2030

The note added that Goldman Sachs expects an aluminum surplus as Indonesian supply begins to rise from mid-2026.

The bank projected aluminum prices at around 2,350 dollars per ton in the fourth quarter of 2026, with prices unlikely to return to current levels before 2030.

China to become net zinc exporter in 2026

Goldman Sachs said China is expected to shift from being a net importer of zinc to a net exporter in 2026, driven by rising domestic production.

The bank said: “We see higher local production in China shifting the country from deficit to surplus, while the market outside China moves into deficit. To balance the global market, Chinese producers will need to be incentivized to export.”

Cobalt supported by tighter supply, new Congo export quotas

In the cobalt market, Goldman Sachs said new export quotas imposed by the Democratic Republic of Congo—which supplies 70% of the metal globally—are likely to lead to a market deficit in 2026, supporting prices amid tightening supply.

Lithium to remain low-priced through 2026 due to supply glut

The bank also projected lithium prices to stay low for longer, with an average price of 8,900 dollars per metric ton in 2026, noting that persistent oversupply will keep the market heavily saturated.

Federal Reserve

Speculation and uncertainty surrounding Federal Reserve policy returned to the forefront as concerns grew over the expected size of the rate cut at the upcoming December meeting.

According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in December dropped to 53.6% from 94.4% a month ago, while the probability of holding rates steady rose to 46.4% from 5.5%.

In the same context, Jeffrey Schmid, president of the Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank, said Friday that his concerns about inflation—describing it as “far too hot”—far outweigh the narrower effects of tariffs, in remarks suggesting he may oppose further cuts at the December meeting if policymakers decide to lower short-term borrowing costs again.

Meanwhile, the dollar index rose 0.2% to 99.5 points as of 15:16 GMT, hitting a high of 99.5 and a low of 99.2.

In Monday’s trading, spot nickel prices fell 1.5% to 14,450 dollars per ton as of 15:27 GMT.

Bitcoin trimmed some of its losses after falling on Monday to its lowest level in more than six months, but it remained under pressure from declining expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut next month and growing caution ahead of delayed U.S. economic data following the government shutdown.

The world’s largest cryptocurrency was down 0.7% at 95,101.3 dollars as of 06:13 a.m. Eastern Time (1:13 GMT). It had dropped over the past 24 hours to 93,043.5 dollars, its lowest level since late April.

Bitcoin fell about 7% last week, marking a third consecutive weekly decline.

Bitcoin drops as rate-cut hopes fade

The decline comes as traders sharply reduced their bets on a Fed easing move in December. Futures pricing now reflects only about a 40% probability of a rate cut at the December 10–11 meeting, after odds had approached 90% earlier this month.

A growing number of Federal Reserve officials have expressed hesitation about proceeding with further cuts, citing unstable inflation trends and a labor market that remains firm.

Boston Fed President Susan Collins said last week she would be “reluctant to ease policy further” without clear evidence of economic deterioration.

Cryptocurrency markets, which had benefited earlier this year from strong rate-cut expectations, are now losing momentum.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs have also seen accelerating outflows, as investors unwind positions tied to expectations of a more accommodative monetary environment.

Sentiment was further weighed down by the blackout of U.S. economic data during the government shutdown, which left investors for weeks without key indicators.

The shutdown delayed Bureau of Labor Statistics releases, including the September nonfarm payrolls report scheduled for Thursday.

Japan considers classifying crypto assets as financial products – Asahi

The Asahi newspaper reported that Japan’s Financial Services Agency (FSA) is preparing to reclassify cryptocurrencies as financial products under the Financial Instruments and Exchange Act.

Under the proposed rules, around 105 crypto assets— including Bitcoin and Ethereum—would be subject to insider-trading legislation, prohibiting transactions based on undisclosed information.

The agency also aims to reduce the tax rate on cryptocurrency gains to a flat 20%, in line with taxes on equities, down from a current rate that can exceed 55%, according to Asahi.

Crypto prices today: strong performance for altcoins, Ethereum jumps more than 4%

Most altcoins trimmed earlier losses to trade slightly lower.

Ethereum—the world’s second-largest cryptocurrency—fell 0.3% to 3,188.13 dollars.

Ripple (XRP), the third-largest cryptocurrency globally, was largely steady at 2.226 dollars.

Oil prices fell on Monday after loading operations resumed at Russia’s Novorossiysk export hub, following a two-day suspension at the Black Sea port that had been hit by a Ukrainian attack.

Brent crude dropped 45 cents, or 0.7%, to 63.94 dollars a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell 46 cents, or 0.8%, to 59.63 dollars.

Both benchmarks had risen more than 2% on Friday to end the week with modest gains, after exports were halted at Novorossiysk and at a facility operated by the Caspian Pipeline Consortium, affecting the equivalent of 2% of global supply. Novorossiysk resumed oil loading on Sunday, according to industry sources and LSEG data.

Even so, Ukraine’s attacks on Russia’s oil infrastructure remain a central focus. Ukrainian forces said on Saturday they had struck the Ryazan oil refinery in Russia, while Ukraine’s General Staff said on Sunday that the Novokuibyshevsk refinery in Russia’s Samara region had also been hit.

Toshitaka Tazawa, an analyst at Fujitomi Securities, said: “Investors are trying to assess how Ukraine’s attacks will impact Russian crude exports in the long run.”

Investors are also monitoring the effect of Western sanctions on Russian supply and trade flows. The United States has imposed sanctions banning transactions with Russian oil companies Lukoil and Rosneft after November 21, in an effort to push Moscow into peace talks over Ukraine.

U.S. President Donald Trump said on Sunday that Republicans are working on legislation to sanction any country that engages in trade with Russia, adding that Iran may be added to the list. Meanwhile, OPEC+ agreed this month to raise production targets in December by 137,000 barrels per day, the same level set for October and November.

The group also agreed to halt increases in the first quarter of next year. A report by ING noted that the oil market is expected to remain in large surplus until 2026, but warned of rising supply risks from Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian facilities, while also pointing to Iran’s seizure of an oil tanker in the Gulf of Oman after it crossed the Strait of Hormuz, a vital passageway for about 20 million barrels per day of global oil flows.

The latest trader-positioning data shows that speculators increased net long positions in ICE Brent futures by 12,636 contracts last week, bringing the total to 164,867 contracts as of last Tuesday.

ING said the increase was driven mainly by short-covering, adding that some participants are hesitant to hold short positions given the supply risks linked to uncertainty around sanctions.

At the same time, UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo expects oil prices to continue receiving support. “Rising oil-on-water levels have not yet translated into higher onshore inventories,” he said in a note. “While we expect prices to ease toward the lower end of the trading range in the coming months, we take a more constructive view for the second half of 2026.”

Global currency markets began the week cautiously, with the dollar edging slightly higher against the euro, yen, and sterling as traders adjusted their positions ahead of what is expected to be a busy week, with U.S. economic data set to return after a long pause.

Market reaction was limited after U.S. President Donald Trump reversed his decision to impose tariffs on more than 200 food products, with some analysts noting that the move was not surprising given the pressure the tariffs had placed on living costs.

Market attention this week will center on a series of U.S. economic releases that may offer signals on the health of the world’s largest economy, including the September nonfarm payrolls report due Thursday.

Despite further signs of weakness in the U.S. economy based on recent private-sector data, investors reduced their expectations for a rate cut next month, suggesting that the gaps in economic data could slow—or even hinder—further monetary easing.

Markets are now pricing a little over a 40% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in December, compared with more than 60% earlier in the month.

In a “Weekly Outlook” note, currency strategists at Goldman Sachs warned that this week’s upcoming data—despite its importance—may not be the most informative. The note stated: “Although the government shutdown has ended, it will naturally take some time before the data becomes relevant again. For example, Thursday’s jobs report offers a snapshot from two months ago, and is therefore unlikely to settle any debate about the economic outlook.”

Over the medium term, the bank’s analysts expect upcoming data to show “enough downside risks facing the labor market to resolve the ongoing debate within the FOMC,” adding that such developments would be negative for the dollar.

Market moves remained limited on the eve of the data. The euro fell 0.2% against the dollar to 1.5977 dollars, while the pound slipped slightly to 1.3168 dollars and the yen edged marginally lower to 154.73 per dollar.

Yen Under Watch

The yen showed little reaction to Monday’s data, which indicated that Japan’s economy contracted at an annualized rate of 1.8% over the three months to September, driven by falling exports under U.S. tariffs and marking the first contraction in six quarters.

Even so, the yen remains near its weakest level in nine months against the dollar, keeping traders alert to the possibility of Japanese authorities intervening to slow the currency’s decline. Japan last intervened in July 2024 when the yen fell to its lowest level in 38 years at around 161.96 per dollar, after the weaker currency caused a sharp rise in food and fuel prices.

As for the British pound, despite its relative stability on Monday, it remained a focal point for FX traders after a volatile session on Friday amid rising speculation surrounding the upcoming November 26 budget. This sensitivity is expected to continue, with the pound also likely to react to UK economic data this week, particularly monthly inflation figures.

September’s inflation reading, which came in below expectations, had prompted markets to adjust their outlook on Bank of England policy, causing the pound to weaken when the data was released last month.

The Swiss franc—seen as a safe haven—pulled back from the one-month high it hit last week, settling at 0.7954 per dollar after benefiting from last week’s global market turmoil. It also stood at 0.7948 against the euro, slightly below the more-than-ten-year high it reached last week.