Let’s start with the conclusion: the wave of cancellations hitting large-scale hydrogen projects is not a catastrophe—it’s a sign of progress. The sector is maturing quickly, shedding glossy proposals and players unwilling to adapt, while leaving space for quiet, effective pioneers.

The Hype Bubble Has Burst—And That’s a Good Thing

Between 2021 and 2023, demand for low-carbon hydrogen remained marginal—under one million tonnes compared with total global hydrogen demand of 97 million tonnes, still mostly fossil-based. At the same time, the “Hydrogen Insights 2024” report noted a seven-fold increase in global electrolysis capacity that passed final investment decision (FID) over four years, though still modest at around 20 GW.

In Europe, 3 GW of electrolyser capacity has cleared FID, expected to deliver about 415,000 tonnes of renewable hydrogen annually. By contrast, blue hydrogen projects have seen over 1.4 million tonnes per year cancelled, with only ~400,000 tonnes per year surviving to FID. The lesson is clear: oversized ideas that fail basic economics don’t survive.

This correction is healthy. Projects moving forward are smaller, better designed, and directly tied to decarbonisation needs.

Real Hydrogen: Focused and Practical Projects

Take Engie’s Yuri project in Western Australia: Phase 1 involves a 10 MW electrolyser powered by 18 MW of solar and backed by an 8 MW battery. It will supply ~640 tonnes of renewable hydrogen annually to Yara’s ammonia production. Unflashy, but effective—demand is clear, production is underway.

In Europe, Engie has also greenlit its share of the mosaHYc hydrogen pipeline between France and Germany, while the H2Med/Barmar corridor between Barcelona and Marseille is targeting up to 2 million tonnes a year by 2030. Germany’s Lubmin ammonia-to-hydrogen terminal aims for final approval by end-2025, targeting costs near $3–3.50/kg by 2027—well below current European levels of $8–10/kg.

These are not megaprojects chasing headlines. They are industrially anchored solutions, fitting into hard-to-abate sectors such as ammonia, methanol, refining, and steelmaking.

Why Smaller is Smarter

Failed megaprojects often lacked clear offtake, relied on unproven technologies, or pursued unrealistic scale. By contrast, today’s survivors are embedded in existing industrial demand, with clear economics. Blue hydrogen, for instance, can be produced in Europe at €3.8–4.4/kg—far cheaper than most green hydrogen.

This shift means fewer projects overall, but stronger, more sustainable ones—designed to deliver real industrial decarbonisation rather than speculative hype.

Policy Support Becomes More Targeted

Policy frameworks are also maturing. The EU’s Hydrogen Bank is directing funds to projects with genuine emission-reduction value. Germany’s KfW is financing import terminals rather than forcing uneconomic domestic production. Public money is being channelled where hydrogen is needed most.

A Smaller, Better Hydrogen Economy

The hydrogen economy will likely be smaller than early, exaggerated forecasts suggested. But that is a strength, not a weakness.

A leaner sector that displaces fossil-based hydrogen, cuts emissions in heavy industry, and builds on solid engineering is far preferable to a sprawl of doomed giga-projects. What matters now is not thousands of ideas, but a handful of excellent ones. Let the bad ones die. Let the noise fade. What remains is real.

US stock indexes declined during Thursday’s trading, with the S&P 500 posting its fifth consecutive drop, as investors awaited Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium.

Markets are closely watching Powell’s remarks on Friday, with expectations pointing to a 25-basis-point rate cut at the Fed’s September meeting.

Meanwhile, government data released today showed initial jobless claims in the US rising by 11,000 to 235,000 in the week ending August 16, the highest level in two months. Analysts had expected claims to increase to 226,000, compared with the unrevised prior week’s figure of 224,000.

As for trading performance, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.2% (95 points) to 44,844 points as of 15:27 GMT. The broader S&P 500 slipped 0.1% (5 points) to 6,391 points, while the Nasdaq Composite edged up 0.1% (10 points) to 21,183 points.

Nickel prices fell during Thursday’s trading amid a stronger US dollar against most major currencies, as well as an increase in global supply of the industrial metal.

While base prices remain steady for now, nickel overall continues to show weakness, keeping stainless steel surcharges capped at limited levels. Although prices have moved sideways in recent months, the broader multi-year trend still points to the downside.

At the same time, nickel inventories remain exceptionally high. Indonesia has maintained robust output, with nickel surpassing coal as the country’s largest export in 2025. However, domestic demand there has already peaked, forcing some smelters to temporarily halt operations amid weak prices.

Although any slowdown in Indonesian supply could lend some support, the sizeable global surplus remains intact. This means smelters would need to cut production for an extended period before prices see any meaningful improvement.

Nickel inventories on the London Metal Exchange have climbed by around 40,000 tons since the start of the year, reaching 195,000 tons, boosted by strong refining capacity from Chinese firms operating in Indonesia. Despite attempts to curb supply, overall sentiment in the market remains cautious, with any recovery dependent on a significant rebound in end-user demand.

Indonesia’s Nickel Market Faces Ongoing Surplus

Indonesia’s nickel sector continues to be under pressure, as government-set production quotas have outpaced actual demand, reinforcing the supply glut. Prices of nickel ore used in pyrometallurgy have fallen, while ore used in hydrometallurgy has held steady. High-grade nickel pig iron prices also remained stable, but smelter profit margins stayed tight. Policymakers are considering interventions, yet abundant supply and weak demand are likely to limit any near-term price upside.

Chinese Nickel Market Holds Firm Despite Surplus

In China, nickel and stainless steel markets showed some resilience, even as overall demand stayed soft and supply remained abundant. Government efforts to curb excess industrial capacity, along with expected seasonal changes in Philippine mining, could influence supply and pricing trends in the coming months.

Outlook

Markets are closely monitoring US interest rate policy, Chinese stimulus measures, and seasonal shifts in Indonesian supply as potential catalysts for nickel prices going forward.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index rose by 0.3% to 98.5 points at 15:07 GMT, hitting an intraday high of 98.5 and a low of 98.1.

In spot trading, nickel contracts slipped by 0.3% to $14,800 per ton as of 15:18 GMT.

Bitcoin maintained trading above the $113,600 level as traders awaited Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium on Friday, an event that could set the market’s course heading into the fall.

The world’s largest cryptocurrency by market value rose about 1% on Thursday, recovering from a two-day decline earlier in the week. However, Bitcoin remains far below its record high of more than $124,000 set on August 14.

Ethereum (ETH-USD), the second-largest cryptocurrency, also posted gains of nearly 3%. Solana (SOL-USD) and Dogecoin (DOGE-GBP) led the rally among major tokens, jumping 4%, while Ripple (XRP-USD) and Tron (TRX-USD) moved more cautiously, rising 1.1% and 1.5%, respectively.

Investors will evaluate Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole as a potential market-moving event. The annual symposium, hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City in Wyoming, brings together central bankers, policymakers, and economists to discuss long-term challenges facing the global economy.

Markets often react sharply to every word spoken by the Fed chair at this event, as any signal of a more hawkish or dovish stance can ripple across currencies, bonds, equities, and cryptocurrencies.

For Bitcoin, a hawkish message underscoring inflation risks could pressure risk assets, potentially dragging the token back toward $110,000. A more dovish tone could revive hopes for a September rate cut, providing support for digital assets.

Although the causal link is not always direct, past Jackson Hole speeches that surprised markets have been followed by sharp moves across asset classes, making this year’s gathering closely watched by crypto traders.

Expectations for Two Rate Cuts Before Year-End

Rate traders are now pricing in two Federal Reserve rate cuts by the end of 2025, with the CME FedWatch tool signaling a 25-basis-point cut in September followed by another in December.

On the positive side, optimism remains that monetary easing will eventually arrive, while strong demand for spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) continues to attract institutional inflows.

On the negative side, ongoing macro uncertainty and a strong US dollar ahead of Powell’s remarks could trigger another wave of liquidations if Bitcoin falls below $110,000.

Developments in Asset Tokenization

Beyond short-term trading dynamics, the digital asset sector is closely monitoring a major development in “asset tokenization.” SkyBridge Capital, founded by Anthony Scaramucci, announced plans to tokenize two of its hedge funds—Digital Macro Master Fund Ltd and Legion Strategies Ltd—in a move that could make investment products once reserved for the elite accessible to a broader audience.

The concept of tokenization refers to the process of converting ownership rights in assets—ranging from real estate and commodities to stocks and funds—into digital tokens recorded on the blockchain. This makes assets more liquid, easily divisible, and potentially accessible to a wider range of investors.

Ben Elvidge, Head of Commercial Applications at Trilitech and Product Director at Uranium.io, said: “SkyBridge’s move to tokenize $300 million worth of hedge funds represents a landmark in the evolution of tokenization. Wrapping multi-asset, complex strategies into on-chain instruments makes these exclusive funds more liquid and accessible.”

Elvidge added that institutional interest in tokenization is accelerating. Research from Trilitech shows that 90% of institutions are now familiar with the concept, and around 80% are either trading or planning to trade tokenized real-world assets. US firms, in particular, are showing strong demand, with 72% exploring the potential for tokenized commodities.