Ongoing geopolitical conflicts—including an active war—alongside market instability, declining steel demand in some global regions, and rising protective tariffs on exporting countries, have pushed several steel-producing nations, including China, to reassess and refocus their steel industry supply chains.

Faced with weak domestic demand for steel due to slowing economic growth, China’s steel industry has revised its export roadmap. For example, the value of its alloy exports to Russia rose by about 16% in the first five months of 2025, compared to just 1.3% in 2024. According to the report, the export list mainly includes types of stainless and specialized steel not manufactured in Russia. However, imports of standard construction steel from China have started gaining momentum in several regions.

Steel production in Russia declines

Media reports indicate that Russia’s steel production is in decline due to sanctions imposed following its invasion of Ukraine. According to a report by World Steel, Russian steel output fell 7% year-on-year to just over 70 million tons in 2024. Within the Russian steel sector, companies cut production by between 8% and 14%.

When sanctions were first imposed, Russia redirected its steel supply toward the Middle East, North Africa, China, and even India in an attempt to offset the loss of EU and U.S. markets. However, in the years that followed, the Chinese market also began to slip away from the Russian Federation. By 2024, shipments of ferrous metals to China had nearly halved.

At the same time, Russian steel mills found themselves grappling with cheap steel that China began shipping to Russia to offload its own industry’s surplus. Now, China’s attempts to export steel to MENA countries are also starting to fade.

The Chinese game

While this clearly affects Russia, the bigger story here is about China. Viewed from another angle, both countries are competing for position in the global steel industry. Yet the Kremlin is at a disadvantage due to sanctions. China, on the other hand, enjoys the upper hand as the world’s largest steel producer and consumer.

At present, China is making a concerted effort to find new buyers, especially as local buyers and former export partners are no longer purchasing steel at the same rate as in previous years. Recently, Beijing turned to Asian and Southeast Asian markets to flood them with steel—until some responded with tariffs, much like the United States did.

So far, this strategy has maintained China’s steel output levels. However, some industry experts believe that total Chinese steel consumption—including exports—will eventually decline either by the end of 2025 or sometime next year. The Chinese steel industry continues to prioritize exports.

According to Reuters, China’s steel product exports rose by 1.15% between April and May, and by about 10% year-on-year. This helped push steel output to a seven-month high of 10.58 million tons. The reasons for this export surge varied, including fears of upcoming tariff hikes.

Between January and May 2025, Chinese steel exports hit a record high of around 48 million metric tons, an 8.9% increase year-on-year. At the same time, imports fell by about 16% year-on-year in the first five months of 2025, reaching just 2.55 million metric tons.

Russia remains one of the few destinations where China markets its steel at low prices, hoping export conditions continue to improve. Contributing factors to the export rise include weak local demand in China, Russia’s limited expertise in producing specialized steel products, and, of course, low Chinese steel prices. Some countries are growing tired of China’s game.

It remains to be seen how long China’s export maneuver will stay competitive in the steel market. Even countries like Vietnam and India have already imposed or are planning to impose additional tariffs. Others, like Japan, are considering the idea. For instance, in late 2024, Japan’s leading steelmaker Nippon Steel made a public request for the Japanese government to impose safeguard tariffs on Chinese steel exports.

U.S. stock indices declined during Monday trading as markets assessed the latest developments in trade talks between the United States and other countries.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in an interview with CNBC that the administration will issue several trade-related announcements within the next 48 hours, though he did not specify the countries involved. He added that the coming days will be packed with new trade proposals.

President Donald Trump warned countries aligning with BRICS alliance policies that run counter to U.S. interests that they would face an additional 10% tariff.

Trump wrote on social media: “Any country siding with BRICS’ anti-America policies will face an additional 10% tariff. There will be no exceptions to this policy.”

Trump has long criticized the BRICS group, which includes China, Russia, and India among its members.

The U.S. had initially set July 9 as the deadline for countries to reach trade agreements, but American officials now say that the tariffs will begin on August 1. Trump said he will send letters to the countries informing them of the tariff rates if no agreement is reached.

As for market performance, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.7% (310 points) to 44,519 points as of 16:36 GMT. The broader S&P 500 index declined by 0.6% (38 points) to 6,241 points, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.7% (145 points) to 20,456 points.

Copper and other base metal prices declined on Monday after U.S. President Donald Trump announced that the United States is close to finalizing several trade agreements in the coming days.

Trump said the U.S. will notify other countries of higher tariff rates by July 9, with those rates taking effect on August 1. He added that any country aligning with the "anti-America" policies of the BRICS group of developing nations will face an additional 10% tariff.

Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange (LME) fell 0.5% to $9,815 per metric ton during official open-outcry trading. Technically, the contract remains supported by the 21-day moving average at $9,767.

Dan Smith, managing director at Commodity Market Analytics, said: “Everyone’s doing some profit-taking amid the threat of additional tariffs, especially since a lot of optimism was already priced into the market over the past month.”

Copper, which is widely used in energy and construction, reached a three-month high of $10,020.5 per ton last week.

Meanwhile, as Washington continues its investigation into potential new tariffs on copper imports, the premium of copper contracts on the U.S. COMEX exchange over benchmark LME contracts remains elevated. Data shows COMEX copper inventories have reached their highest levels in seven years, up 120% since mid-February.

“That copper is basically stuck inside the United States right now,” Smith added, “which is creating a kind of supply bottleneck. A lot of the stock is in the wrong place and is hard to access.”

Copper stocks in LME-registered warehouses currently stand at 97,400 tons, up slightly since early July but still down 64% since mid-February.

Elsewhere, aluminum prices on the LME fell 1.0% to $2,564 per ton. Zinc dropped 1.1% to $2,695, lead declined 1.0% to $2,038, tin fell 0.6% to $33,495, and nickel slid 1.2% to $15,100.

Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar index rose 0.1% to 97.3 at 16:15 GMT, after reaching a high of 97.4 and a low of 96.8.

In U.S. trading, copper futures for September delivery dropped 2.3% to $5.02 per pound as of 16:14 GMT.

Institutional and corporate demand remains strong

Bitcoin closed at $109,203 on Sunday, marking the highest weekly close on record, driven by strong institutional demand.

According to SoSoValue data, spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $769.60 million in inflows last week, the fourth consecutive week of positive flows since mid-June. If this pace continues or accelerates, Bitcoin may be able to reach or surpass its previous all-time highs.

Corporate demand also remains strong. Japanese investment firm Metaplanet announced on Monday the purchase of an additional 2,205 BTC, bringing its total holdings to 15,555 BTC. Meanwhile, Blockchain Group confirmed the acquisition of 116 BTC, bringing its total to 1,904 BTC.

Trump administration may extend tariff freeze to August 1

Markets began the week in risk-off mode as investors assessed the latest developments surrounding U.S. tariff policy.

According to The Kobeissi Letter on Sunday, Treasury Secretary Scott Besant said President Donald Trump will impose “April 2-level” tariffs on countries that have not signed trade agreements with the U.S., starting August 1. This suggests a possible extension of the current tariff freeze from July 9 to August 1.

This news may have a mixed impact on risk assets like Bitcoin: while a delay may relieve immediate pressure, it also prolongs market uncertainty.

Meanwhile, U.S. macroeconomic data last week showed non-farm payrolls (NFP) increased by 147,000 in June, beating expectations of 110,000 and up from 144,000 in May. Unemployment also fell unexpectedly to 4.1%, compared to expectations of 4.3% and May’s reading of 4.2%.

This data weakened expectations of an imminent and aggressive rate cut by the Federal Reserve, reinforcing a cautious outlook for upcoming policy moves.

Traders now await the release of the Fed’s June meeting minutes on Wednesday for clearer signals on the next monetary policy step.

Musk’s “America Party” embraces Bitcoin

Elon Musk announced that his new political party, the America Party, will support Bitcoin.

When asked on X whether the party would embrace Bitcoin, Musk responded: “Fiat currency is hopeless, so yes.”

Bitcoin price outlook: Will new highs follow?

Bitcoin rebounded on Sunday after retesting the upper edge of a previous consolidation zone at $108,355. On Monday, BTC is trading near the $109,000 mark.

If upward momentum continues, the rally may extend toward the all-time high of $111,980 recorded on May 22.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart shows a reading of 57, above the neutral 50 mark, signaling bullish momentum.

The MACD also displays a bullish crossover, with rising green histogram bars above the neutral level, reflecting a positive trend.

However, if Bitcoin faces a pullback and closes below the $108,355 support, the decline may extend to test the lower boundary of the previous consolidation zone at $105,333, which aligns closely with the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $105,158—making this area a key support zone for Bitcoin.