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Chinese demand concerns and dollar's strength weigh on nickel and other main metals

Economies.com
2023-11-09 16:57PM UTC

Most industrial metals lost ground on Thursday amid uncertainty about economic recovery in China, while the dollar lost ground.

 

Copper three-month futures fell 0.5% at the London Metals Exchange to $8099.5 a tonne as of 10:55 GMT. 

 

Copper, used heavily in construction and energy, fell 0.9% so far this week, with analysts noting that weak Chinese data are contributing to the decline.

 

Copper breached the recent upward trend, and is now trading near the support of the 50-day SMA. 

 

Chinese consumer prices recently slowed down again, while manufacturing took a dip, hurting the outlook of a proper recovery. 

 

The data painted a mixed picture of Chinese economic performance, as exports and manufacturing slowed down in October, while imports unexpectedly grew. 

 

Citibank said in a research paper that China's recovery from the Covid 19 fallout is very gradual amid continued weakness in the real estate sector and damaged confidence. 

 

The dollar index rose today following bullish remarks by Fed officials, hurting dollar-denominated commodity futures. 

 

At the London Metals Exchange, aluminium prices fell 1.1% to $2239 a tonne, while nickel fell 1.4% to $17845, as Zinc fell 0.7% to $2592, while lead settled at $2190. 

 

Otherwise, the dollar index fell 0.1% as of 16:44 GMT to 105.5, with a session-high at 105.7, and a low at 105.3.

 

Nickel spot prices rose 1.6% as of 16:55 GMT to $17.9 thousand a tonne. 

Oil prices hold ground above four-month lows under negative pressures

Economies.com
2023-11-09 13:50PM UTC

Oil prices rose on Thursday for the first session in three days, holding above four-month lows on active short-covering.

 

The gains came despite mounting negative pressure on the oil market as US and Chinese demand weakens while the dollar gains ground.

 

Global Oil Prices

 

US crude rose 0.9% to $76.26 a barrel, while Brent added 1.1% to $80.50 a barrel.

 

US crude lost 2% on Wednesday, marking a four-month trough at $74.96, while Brent shed 2.1% to $79.24 a barrel, the lowest since July 20.

 

US Stocks 

 

Initial data from the American Petroleum Institute showed US commercial crude stocks rose 12 million barrels in the week ending November 3, the second weekly increase in a row.

 

Thus total stocks rose to 444 million barrels, the highest since mid August.

 

Now traders await official EIA data on inventories, expected to show a buildup of 1.5 million barrels.

 

Chinese Demand

 

Earlier Chinese data showed producer prices shrank in October, as consumer prices also shrank for the first time in three months in another sign of economic contraction in China.

 

Recent official data showed Chinese imports contracted faster than expected in October, another sign of slower economic growth in the world's second largest fuel consumer.

 

The data also showed growth in China's crude exports, but such growth might not be sustained as demand is expected to taper off.

 

Traders expect refinery operations to slow down in China during November and December, which could hurt crude demand.

 

The Dollar

 

The dollar index rose 0.15% on Thursday on track for the fourth profit in a row against a basket of major rivals, pressuring dollar-denominated commodities. 

 

The gains came following a spate of bullish remarks by several Fed officials, which bolstered the case for another 0.25% interest rate hike next month.

Jamie Dimon: The World is heading for worst crisis since World War 2

Economies.com
2023-11-09 12:06PM UTC

JPMorgan Chase Chairman Jamie Dimon warned that conflicts in East Europe and the Middle East threaten the world economy with its worst crisis since World War 2.

 

In an interview with the Sunday Times, Dimon said the Russian war in Ukraine and the Israel war in the Middle East are making the world more unstable and unpredictable. 

 

Dimon added that US economy remains strong, due to extensive financial and monetary stimulus, but he described current geopolitical tensions as the most dangerous since 1938 when Nazi Germany annexed parts of Czechoslovakia. 

 

Earlier remarks in September, Dimon said in a financial conference in New York that despite flourishing environment experienced by the US economy, it would be a heavy mistake to assume that will go on for years. 

 

The US largest bank's chairman said that concerns about financial markets were be useless with the world heading for such risks. 

 

He said the concepts such as freedom, democracy, energy, food, and immigration will take forefront status and push aside concerns about financial markets.

 

These are not new remarks by JPMorgan Chase chairman about the conflicts in Europe and the Middle East, as he reasserted such remarks last month during the bank's financial results report. 

Dollar maintains gains ahead of Powell's remarks

Economies.com
2023-11-09 11:16AM UTC

Dollar rose in European trade on Thursday against a basket of major rivals, maintaining gains for the fourth straight session following bullish remarks by Fed officials.

 

Such remarks boosted the chase of another US interest rate hike next month with investors now awaiting a crucial speech by Fed Chair Jerome Powell later today. 

 

The Index

 

The dollar index rose 0.15% to 105.69, with a session-low at 105.47, after closing up 0.1% yesterday, the third profit in a row.

 

Fed Remarks 

 

Minneapolis Fed President Neil Kashkari said the Fed might still have some work to do to control inflation.

 

Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker said the decision on interest rates will depend on upcoming data.

 

US Rates

 

Odds for a 0.25% interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve in December currently stands at 10%. 

 

Powell

 

Now investors await Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech later today in Washington DC, which could hold clues on the likely path ahead for US policies. 

 

Additionally, US unemployment claims are expected up slightly to 218 thousand in the week ending November 4, from 217 thousand in the previous week.