Aluminum prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME) rose 1.7% to $2,895 per ton, supported by optimism over a potential reopening of the US government. The gains came after a group of Democratic senators expressed support for a deal to end the federal shutdown, boosting overall investor confidence.

Aluminum remains resilient after recently hitting a three-year high, driven by production cuts in China and sustained global demand. Analysts expect a supply deficit of around 1.8 million tons this year, as production outside China continues to decline. However, despite the upbeat sentiment, high producer margins may limit further price increases.

Alcoa: A major global player in the aluminum market

Alcoa Corp (AA) is a vertically integrated aluminum producer with operations spanning bauxite mining, alumina refining, and primary aluminum manufacturing. The company is the world’s largest bauxite miner and alumina refiner by output, and the eighth-largest aluminum producer globally. Its profitability is closely tied to commodity prices across the aluminum supply chain.

Alcoa was the world’s first mass aluminum producer, pioneering the Hall-Héroult smelting process in the 1880s, which made aluminum an affordable material worldwide. It became a publicly listed company in 1925. In 2016, Alcoa spun off its automotive and aerospace components division to focus on its core mining, smelting, and refining businesses. By mid-2024, the company acquired the remaining 40% stake in AWAC, giving it near-full ownership of its refining assets, alongside full control of its smelting operations.

Alcoa currently has a market capitalization of $10.06 billion and operates within the basic materials sector, specifically in metals and mining, positioning it as a key strategic player in the global aluminum market.

Bitcoin rose on Monday, tracking gains across risk assets as US lawmakers made progress toward ending the longest government shutdown in the nation’s history.

The world’s largest cryptocurrency climbed 4.3% to $106,330.9 by 12:06 a.m. Eastern Time (05:06 GMT).

Monday’s rally extended a weekend rebound driven by opportunistic buying after sharp losses in October and early November.

The token had entered bear-market territory last week, having fallen more than 20% from its record high set in early October. Bitcoin also led the broader crypto market sell-off and has repeatedly failed to break above the $110,000 level since mid-October.

Still, improving risk sentiment helped fuel its recovery, especially after the US and China reached a trade deal in late October.

US Senate makes progress on bill to end federal shutdown

Risk appetite strengthened Monday after the US Senate voted to advance a bill funding the government through January 30, 2026.

The motion passed 60-40 after eight Democratic senators agreed to a deal with Republicans.

The full Senate vote on the bill is expected soon.

Ending the shutdown — the longest in US history — is seen as boosting sentiment toward the world’s largest economy, particularly as the government resumes publishing key economic data.

It could also ease fears over the shutdown’s economic toll, which is estimated to have cost the US tens of billions of dollars last month.

Ripple surges on optimism over new funding round

Ripple’s token was among the top-performing altcoins, jumping more than 8% to $2.4570.

The gains followed optimism surrounding Ripple Labs’ successful $500 million funding round that valued the company at $40 billion.

The round came after Ripple denied recent rumors about plans for a public listing.

Investors also bet the company might use part of the new capital to repurchase its own token — a move viewed as bullish for prices.

Oil prices were little changed on Monday as investors assessed progress in negotiations to end the US government shutdown, while persistent concerns over abundant global crude supply kept gains in check.

Brent crude futures rose 11 cents, or 0.17%, to $63.74 a barrel by 10:51 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures added 13 cents, or 0.22%, to $59.88 a barrel.

The US Senate on Sunday took a procedural step toward advancing legislation to reopen the federal government and end the shutdown, now in its 40th day, which has frozen government operations, delayed food assistance, and disrupted air travel.

Tamas Varga, an analyst at PVM, said the initial move by US lawmakers toward ending the shutdown helped revive risk appetite in markets.

Analysts expressed concern over the impact of widespread flight cancellations on US jet fuel demand, as airlines canceled more than 2,800 domestic flights and delayed over 10,200 on Sunday — the worst day of disruption since the government closure began.

Both Brent and WTI fell about 2% last week, marking their second consecutive weekly loss amid fears of a supply glut.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) agreed to a modest production increase for December but paused any further hikes through the first quarter of next year.

In the United States, crude inventories have risen, while the volume of oil stored on ships in Asian waters has doubled in recent weeks as tighter Western sanctions curbed China and India’s crude imports.

Varga of PVM noted a clear divergence between the buildup of floating crude storage and the decline in available Russian oil products, which continues to support fuel demand.

Meanwhile, Russia’s Tuapse refinery on the Black Sea has suspended fuel exports following drone attacks earlier this month, according to two industry sources and vessel-tracking data from LSEG.

Russian oil major Lukoil is also facing growing operational disruptions as the November 21 deadline approaches for US sanctions that will force companies to end dealings with it, after a potential sale of its assets to Swiss trader Gunvor failed to materialize.

The Australian dollar rose on Monday while the Japanese yen weakened, as growing optimism that the US government could soon reopen reduced demand for the yen as a safe haven and supported growth-linked currencies, while European currencies remained broadly stable.

The US dollar gained 0.5% against the yen to 154.22, nearing a nine-month high reached earlier this month.

The Australian dollar climbed 0.55% against the US dollar to 0.6532 and advanced more than 1% against the yen. The AUD/JPY pair is often seen as a barometer of global risk appetite and growth prospects, typically moving in tandem with equity markets, which were also higher on Monday.

Kit Juckes, chief FX strategist at Société Générale, said, “The textbook trade right now in a ‘risk-on’ environment is long the Australian dollar versus the Japanese yen.”

The US Senate took a step late Sunday toward advancing legislation to reopen the federal government and end the longest shutdown in the country’s history. While the vote was procedural, several Democratic lawmakers reached a deal with Republicans, and President Donald Trump said things looked “very close to ending the shutdown.”

On prediction markets such as Polymarket, the implied probability of the shutdown ending before November 15 jumped to 92%.

If the shutdown is lifted, attention will shift back to US economic data, particularly the nonfarm payrolls report, which has not been released in over a month due to the government closure.

Markets currently price in roughly a 60% chance that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in December, though those expectations could shift sharply once new data are published.

“I fear that, at least initially, when we finally get the data, the numbers may disappoint for the US economy,” Juckes said.

Uncertainty kept the dollar steady against European currencies, with the euro at 1.1558, the pound at 1.3163, and the Swiss franc at 0.8062 — little changed on the day.

Local factors also influenced the yen and Australian dollar.

Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said Monday she would set a new multi-year fiscal target allowing for more flexible spending, marking a step away from Japan’s long-standing fiscal discipline.

Separately, the Bank of Japan’s Summary of Opinions released Monday noted that “the fog surrounding Japan’s economic outlook has started to lift compared with July,” potentially paving the way for a rate hike in December that could support the yen.

Salman Ahmed, head of global macro and strategic asset allocation, said, “There’s too much optimism about whether this policy will be a full continuation of Abenomics, but we do expect another rate increase from the BOJ.”

Meanwhile, Reserve Bank of Australia Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser said in a speech that financial conditions in Australia are now near the neutral rate — the level that neither stimulates nor restrains the economy.

“The speech, which carried a relatively hawkish tone, helped lift the Australian dollar,” analysts at Westpac wrote in a note.

In Europe, the only notable mover was the Norwegian krone, which strengthened after data showed core inflation rose unexpectedly in October, reducing the likelihood of further rate cuts by the central bank.

The US dollar fell 0.44% against the krone to 10.11, while the euro declined by a similar margin to 11.7.