Aluminum prices jumped on Monday after Iranian strikes disrupted key production facilities in the Middle East over the weekend, as investors brace for the possibility of further supply and logistics constraints.

Three-month aluminum on the London Metal Exchange rose 3.85% to $3,420.00 per metric ton, trading near its highest level in four years. Earlier in the day, prices climbed to $3,492 per metric ton.

Shares of Alcoa surged 10%, while Century Aluminum shares rose 11% in pre-market trading.

Bitcoin’s recent decline has revived one of the most troubling questions facing the cryptocurrency market this year.

Investors are now seriously asking whether this is just another bad week or the beginning of a deeper losing streak.

What is clear is that pressure has been building over recent weeks.

Bitcoin fell below the $68,000 level late last week and briefly dropped to around $65,112 on March 30, before recovering above $67,000 at the start of Asian trading.

However, this rebound has not eased broader concerns. Market focus is now on whether March will close at a sufficiently weak level to extend an already unusual سلسلة of monthly declines.

A market analysis published in late February had already pointed to five consecutive monthly red candles through February, making the March close a critical turning point in determining the market’s next direction.

Monthly trend outweighs short-term rebound

Bitcoin’s daily movements remain highly volatile, but the stronger signal currently comes from the monthly trend.

The temporary rebound from the March 30 low does not change the fact that the world’s largest cryptocurrency has spent much of recent weeks under selling pressure.

The leading cryptocurrency fell to $65,112 before recovering above $67,000, as renewed weakness late last week coincided with resumed ETF outflows and increasing macroeconomic pressure.

For this reason, talk of a “six-month downturn” should be viewed as a possibility rather than a confirmed outcome.

February was widely described in market commentary as the fifth consecutive month of losses.

March, however, had not yet recorded a final monthly close at the time of the latest sell-off.

Iliya Kalchev of Nexo Dispatch summarized market sentiment, noting that a week that began with cautious optimism ended on a more defensive tone amid renewed ETF outflows and rising macroeconomic pressure.

Sell-off driven by economic concerns

Bitcoin is often promoted as being separate from the traditional financial system.

In reality, it has recently traded more like a high-risk, high-volatility asset.

The same forces pressuring equity markets and weakening investor confidence elsewhere are now directly impacting the cryptocurrency market.

Investors are closely monitoring rising concerns over the war in the Middle East, higher oil prices, a stronger dollar, and a broader retreat from speculative investments.

The escalation of the conflict in the Middle East has driven oil prices sharply higher, strengthened the dollar, and weighed on major equity indices.

The mechanism is straightforward: when war concerns rise and oil prices surge, inflation fears tend to increase.

As inflation concerns rise, investors become less willing to hold highly volatile assets.

In Bitcoin’s case, this caution is amplified by crypto-specific factors such as ETF flow volatility, derivatives positioning, and forced liquidation pressures.

The recent weakness has been linked to renewed ETF outflows, alongside a risk-off economic environment ahead of the expiry of options contracts worth about $14 billion.

Potential for a sixth consecutive monthly decline

The bearish scenario is easy to outline.

Technical analysis published by FXStreet indicated that the short-term tone remains fragile, with immediate support around the mid-$60,000 range, and that a daily close below $65,000 could open the door to a deeper decline toward $60,000.

This places Bitcoin in a critical position, as the price is close enough to support levels to attract dip buyers, yet not far enough from a breakdown point to ease investor concerns.

Reuters quoted Cynthia Murphy of TMX VettaFi as saying that Bitcoin may be approaching a price bottom, even if it remains a “highly volatile journey” for investors.

Oil prices extended gains on Monday, with Brent crude heading for a record monthly increase after Yemen’s Houthis expanded the Iran war by launching their first attacks on Israel.

Brent crude futures rose by $2.26, or 2%, to $114.83 per barrel as of 13:20 GMT, after closing Friday’s session up 4.2%.

Meanwhile, US West Texas Intermediate crude rose by $1.49, or 1.5%, to $101.13 per barrel, following a 5.5% gain in the previous session.

Brent has surged about 58% this month, marking its largest monthly increase on record according to data from the London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG) dating back to 1988, surpassing gains recorded during the 1990 Gulf War. At the same time, US crude has climbed 51%, posting its biggest monthly gain since May 2020.

These gains have been driven by the effective closure imposed by Iran on the Strait of Hormuz, a vital passage through which around one-fifth of global oil and gas supplies flow.

The conflict began on February 28 with US and Israeli strikes on Iran, before expanding across the Middle East, raising concerns about shipping routes around the Arabian Peninsula and the Red Sea.

In a move that supported prices, US President Donald Trump issued a new warning on Monday urging Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face the risk of US attacks on its oil wells and power plants.

Trump wrote in a social media post: “Significant progress has been made, but if an agreement is not reached soon for any reason — which will likely be the case — and if the Strait of Hormuz is not immediately reopened for business, we will end our nice stay in Iran by blowing up and destroying all power plants, oil wells, and Kharg Island entirely.”

As more US forces arrive in the Middle East, Trump said earlier that the United States and Iran are holding meetings “directly and indirectly,” adding that Iran’s new leaders were “very reasonable.”

However, the Israeli military said on Monday it is targeting Iranian government infrastructure across the capital, Tehran.

Trump had previously stated that he would suspend attacks on Iran’s energy network until April 6.

Market seeks concrete signs of de-escalation

SEB research said in a note that Trump’s extension of the deadline to April 6 — the date when US attacks on Iran’s energy infrastructure could resume — “has not had a calming effect.”

The note added: “The market is now looking for concrete signs of de-escalation, not just statements.”

The Israeli military said on Monday that Iran launched multiple waves of missiles toward Israel, while an attack from Yemen was carried out for only the second time since the start of the war.

Analysts at JP Morgan, led by Natasha Kaneva, said in a note: “The conflict is no longer confined to the Arabian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz, but has now expanded to the Red Sea and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait — one of the world’s most critical chokepoints for crude oil and refined product flows.”

Data from analytics firm Kpler showed that Saudi crude exports rerouted from the Strait of Hormuz to the Red Sea port of Yanbu reached 4.658 million barrels per day last week.

JP Morgan analysts added that if exports from Yanbu are disrupted, Saudi crude would need to be redirected to Egypt’s SUMED pipeline to reach the Mediterranean.

Attacks in the region escalated over the weekend, damaging the Salalah oil terminal in Oman, despite ongoing efforts to initiate ceasefire talks.

Iran: prepared for a US ground attack

Iran said it is prepared to respond to a US ground attack, accusing Washington on Sunday of preparing for a land operation while simultaneously seeking negotiations.

Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar said his country discussed potential ways to end the war early and permanently, including the possibility of hosting talks between the United States and Iran in Islamabad.

In a separate development, Vietnam’s Binh Son Refining and Petrochemical said on Monday it is in talks with Russian partners to purchase crude oil. The company also said it will increase its crude purchases from Africa, the United States, and Southeast Asia.

A European Union briefing document showed that the bloc does not face an immediate supply shortage, but is experiencing tighter diesel and jet fuel markets, while EU energy ministers are set to hold talks on Tuesday to coordinate their response to supply disruptions.

The US dollar hovered near a 10-month high on Monday and is on track to post its largest monthly gain since July, as mixed signals from Iran and the United States weakened hopes for a swift end to the conflict in the Middle East.

US President Donald Trump said that Iran’s new leaders were “very rational,” as additional US forces arrived in the region, while Tehran warned that it would not accept humiliation.

Meanwhile, the Japanese yen hovered near the critical ¥160 per dollar level after hitting its weakest level since July 2024, a threshold at which Tokyo previously intervened to support its currency. The euro, on the other hand, found some support from expectations of interest rate hikes by the European Central Bank.

Hormuz tensions support the dollar

Markets have experienced sharp volatility this month after the conflict with Iran effectively led to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway through which about one-fifth of global oil and gas flows pass, while Brent crude futures continued to gain after Yemen’s Houthi group launched its first attacks on Israel.

The dollar has benefited from its safe-haven status since early March, as economies such as Japan and the eurozone have been hurt by rising oil prices, while the United States has relatively benefited as a net exporter of crude oil.

Barclays noted that market sentiment toward the dollar is approaching “extreme optimism” levels based on its indicators, which rely on traditional measures including growth expectations, interest rate differentials, and risk indicators.

The dollar index rose 0.1% to 100.28 points, after reaching 100.54 in mid-March, the highest level since May 2025, and is heading for its largest monthly gain since July 2025.

Chris Turner, Head of Global Foreign Exchange Strategy at ING, said: “Unless clear and conciliatory messages come from the Iranian side, it will be difficult for the dollar to give up its gains achieved this month anytime soon.”

US jobs data in focus

Investors are closely watching US employment data due later this week, which could influence expectations for the Federal Reserve’s policy path.

Bob Savage, Head of Market Macro Strategy at BNY, said: “In the midst of the storm, this week delivers a critical set of US labor market data.”

He added: “After a weak February jobs report and a full month of conflict in the Middle East, we are keen to see how labor market conditions have been affected.”

European interest rate outlook

The euro traded near $1.15 and is heading for a decline of about 2.5% in March, its largest monthly drop since July.

Thu Lan Nguyen, Head of FX and Commodity Research at Commerzbank, said the euro would have declined further against the dollar were it not for market expectations of a more hawkish stance from the European Central Bank.

She added that downside risks for the euro/dollar pair will remain limited as long as expectations of tighter European monetary policy persist.

Before the outbreak of the conflict, markets were pricing more than a 50% probability of rate cuts in Europe, but are now pricing in the possibility of a rate hike before the end of the year.

Yen nears intervention level again

The Japanese yen rose 0.40% to ¥159.65 against the dollar after hitting ¥160.47 during Asian trading, its weakest level since July 2024.

The move came after Japan intensified warnings of intervention to support the currency, noting that further depreciation could justify a near-term interest rate hike. The yen had fallen more than 2% during March due to concerns over rising oil prices.

Among other currencies, the Australian dollar fell 0.3% to $0.6851 and is heading for a monthly loss of 3.8%, its largest since December 2024. The New Zealand dollar also declined 0.4% to $0.57275, recording a drop of about 4.4% during March.