Silver prices rose in the European market on Monday, extending gains for the third consecutive day and successfully breaking above the $39-per-ounce barrier for the first time since 2011. The metal is now strongly poised to surpass the $40 threshold in the near term, amid heavy inflows and robust demand for the white metal.

Commodity and metal prices have entered a bullish awakening, fueled by U.S. President Donald Trump’s threats of an expanded trade war and tariffs on copper and other metals, as China moves to boost its strategic reserves of key industrial materials.

The Price

Today’s Silver Price: Silver rose by 1.9% to $39.13 per ounce — the highest since September 2011 — from an opening level of $38.39, with the session low also at $38.39.

On Friday, Silver settled up by roughly 3.75%, marking its second straight daily gain, driven by Trump’s trade threats.

Last week, The metal rose 4.0%, its second consecutive weekly gain.

Strong Demand

Silver has jumped more than 8% since the start of July and is on track for a third straight monthly gain, supported by strong industrial demand as well as growing retail interest, with the metal seen as undervalued compared to gold, which continues to trade near historical highs.

Industrial Demand

Silver is widely used in green technology sectors such as solar panels, electric vehicles, and electronics, due to its excellent conductivity.

Some global forecasts suggest that the solar energy sector could consume up to 30% of the world’s annual silver production by 2030, as each solar panel typically requires about 20 grams of silver.

Global industrial demand has already hit record levels, with expectations of reaching 710 million ounces by 2025, potentially fueling further price increases in the second half of this year.

Chinese Demand

Recent positive data from Beijing has revived hopes of an economic rebound in China, which would boost demand for metals and commodities in the world’s largest consumer market.

Chinese authorities have recently rolled out a series of fiscal and monetary stimulus measures to support the world’s second-largest economy and steer it out of a prolonged slowdown.

Retail Demand

Retail investors, seeking financial assets to hedge against risks stemming from the global shift toward looser monetary policy, increasingly view silver as the most cost-effective and undervalued safe haven.

The current rally in silver is being driven in part by growing awareness among retail traders that the white metal remains significantly underpriced compared to gold, which continues to hover near its historic highs.

Oil prices rose on Monday, hitting a three-week high, as investors awaited further U.S. sanctions on Russia that could impact global supply. Strong Chinese crude imports also supported prices.

Brent crude futures climbed by 58 cents, or 0.8%, to $70.94 per barrel by 09:00 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gained 59 cents, or 0.9%, to $69.04 per barrel.

UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said: “Higher crude imports into China and market expectations surrounding an upcoming announcement from U.S. President Donald Trump on Russia are providing additional support to prices.”

Trump promises a “major announcement” on Russia

Trump said on Sunday that he would send Patriot missile systems to Ukraine and indicated that he would issue a “major statement” regarding Russia on Monday, expressing frustration with Russian President Vladimir Putin over the lack of progress in ending the war in Ukraine.

In an attempt to pressure Moscow into serious negotiations, a bipartisan U.S. bill to impose new sanctions on Russia gained momentum in Congress last week. At the same time, European Union representatives were close to reaching an agreement on the 18th package of sanctions against Russia, which is expected to include a reduction in the price cap on Russian oil, according to four European sources following a meeting on Sunday.

China drives the market with strong import support

Customs data released Monday showed that China’s crude oil imports rose by 7.4% year-on-year in June to reach 12.14 million barrels per day — the highest level since August 2023.

JPMorgan’s research team said in a client note: “China is likely to continue building its oil inventories, but with storage nearing 95% of the peak accumulation recorded in 2020, these stocks may begin to appear in visible Western market locations — critical zones in price formation — potentially putting downward pressure on prices.”

Weekly gains amid tightening market expectations

Brent crude posted a 3% weekly gain last week, while WTI rose by about 2.2%, following comments from the International Energy Agency that the global oil market may be tighter than it appears.

Investors are also closely watching developments in trade negotiations between the U.S. and its key partners, especially amid rising tensions from Washington’s recent protectionist policies and tariff announcements.

The euro briefly hit a three-week low on Monday morning before recovering some losses, while the U.S. dollar edged slightly higher after President Donald Trump threatened to impose 30% tariffs on imports from two of the United States’ largest trading partners, starting August 1.

Analysts pointed to what's known as the "TACO" trade (short for "Trump Always Chickens Out") as a factor in suppressing major moves in the foreign exchange markets, with investors now less responsive to his recurring threats.

Clearer Moves in the Crypto Market

In contrast, the cryptocurrency market saw sharper movements, with Bitcoin surging to a new record high above the $120,000 mark, driven by investor bets on long-awaited legislative breakthroughs in favor of the sector expected this week.

The world’s largest cryptocurrency jumped 2.9% to trade at $122,549.70, while Ether rose 1.5% to $3,039.48.

New Tariff Threats and European Accusations of Unfairness

Trump announced the new tariffs on Saturday in two separate letters addressed to European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum, both posted on his Truth Social platform.

The European Union and Mexico both described the tariffs as “unfair” and “destabilizing.” The EU said it would extend its suspension of retaliatory tariffs against the U.S. through early August and would continue pushing for a negotiated resolution.

Could Trump’s Success in Pressuring Trade Partners Support the Dollar?

Analysts at Commerzbank wrote in a morning note: “If Trump is actually able to extract major concessions from America’s trading partners through tariff threats, that could be seen as a positive for the dollar — especially if the concessions involve lower tariffs on American goods.”

However, they also warned that the high level of uncertainty facing American businesses, with constant tariff threats, is dampening investment appetite.

Markets Largely Ignore the New Threats

Despite the threats, the reaction in currency markets was relatively muted:

The euro fell 0.1% to $1.168175 after touching its lowest level in three weeks before partially recovering.

The British pound declined 0.1% to $1.3475.

The Japanese yen inched up to 147.33 per dollar.

The U.S. dollar climbed 0.3% against the Mexican peso to 18.683 pesos.

Carol Kong, a currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, said: “Financial markets seem desensitized to Trump’s tariff threats after months of repetition... The muted reaction this time suggests the market views it as a negotiation tactic aimed at extracting further concessions.”

Moves in Other Currencies and Concerns Over Trump Interfering with the Fed

The Australian dollar fell 0.11% to $0.65665, while the New Zealand dollar dropped 0.36% to $0.5988.

Outside the tariff news, Trump said on Sunday that it would be “great” if Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell resigned — a fresh jab at the central bank’s independence, as he again called for interest rate cuts.

Markets Turn Toward Inflation Data

Markets now turn their attention to U.S. inflation data for June, due Tuesday, which may offer clearer signals on the interest rate path. Investors currently price in a bit more than 50 basis points of rate cuts by December.

Recovery in Chinese Exports

In Asia, data released Monday showed that Chinese exports regained momentum in June, while imports also rebounded, as exporters rushed to ship goods ahead of a potentially short-lived tariff truce between Beijing and Washington, with the Trump administration’s August deadline approaching.

Gold prices rose in European markets on Monday, extending gains for the fourth consecutive day and reaching a three-week high, as safe-haven buying intensified amid fears of an escalating global trade war following Trump’s threat to impose tariffs on the European Union and Mexico.

Gains in the precious metal were capped by the strength of the U.S. dollar in the foreign exchange market, as investors await key U.S. inflation data this week, which will offer strong clues about the likelihood of interest rate cuts in the second half of the year.

The Price

• Gold prices today: Gold rose by more than 0.55% to $3,375.01, up from the opening level of $3,355.72, after touching a session low of $3,353.84.

• On Friday, gold prices settled with a 0.95% increase, marking a third straight daily gain, driven by Trump’s tariff announcements.

• Over the past week, gold rose by 0.55%, its second consecutive weekly gain.

Trump’s Trade Threats

On Saturday, U.S. President Donald Trump announced new tariff measures in separate letters addressed to European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum, both published on his "Truth" social media platform.

Trump threatened to impose 30% tariffs on the EU and Mexico — two of the U.S.'s largest trading partners — starting August 1.

Both the EU and Mexico described the tariffs as unfair and disruptive. The EU said it would extend its suspension of retaliatory measures on U.S. tariffs until early August and would continue pressing for a negotiated settlement.

U.S. Dollar

The U.S. dollar index rose by 0.25% on Monday, extending gains for the third consecutive session and hitting a three-week high of 98.10 points, reflecting continued dollar strength against a basket of major and minor currencies.

Carol Kong, currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, commented that financial markets appear increasingly indifferent to President Trump’s tariff threats, which have become a repeated theme in recent months.

Separately, Trump stated on Sunday that it would be “great” if Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell resigned, once again threatening central bank independence as he called for rate cuts.

U.S. Interest Rates

• According to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool, markets currently price in a 7% chance of a 25 basis-point rate cut at the July meeting, with a 93% chance of no change.

• For September, odds of a 25 basis-point cut are steady at 61%, with the probability of no change at 39%.

• Investors are closely watching this week’s release of U.S. consumer and producer price data for June to reassess these expectations.

Gold Outlook

• Kelvin Wong, market analyst for the Asia-Pacific region at OANDA, said: “We’re seeing a resurgence in safe-haven demand amid uncertainty over the implementation of U.S. global trade tariff policy.”

• Wong added that the short-term outlook for gold appears positive, and if gold closes above $3,360, it could rise toward the next resistance level at $3,435.

SPDR Fund

Holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, fell by approximately 1.17 metric tons on Friday, bringing the total to 947.64 metric tons.