Silver prices fell by 3.5% in the European market on Monday at the start of the week’s trading, approaching again a one-week low, amid thin trading due to the closure of major markets in the United States and China, and under negative pressure from a stronger US dollar.

Strong US labor market data reduced the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will cut US interest rates in March, as investors await more evidence on the policy path later this year.

Price overview

•Silver prices today: Silver fell by 3.5% to ($74.67), from the session opening level at ($77.40), and recorded a high at ($78.19).

•At Friday’s settlement, silver prices rose by 2.9%, after hitting a one-week low earlier in the session at $74 per ounce.

•The white metal silver lost 0.6% last week, marking its third consecutive weekly loss.

Global markets

US markets are closed today for Presidents’ Day, while markets in China and several other Asian countries are closed for the Lunar New Year holiday until February 23.

The US dollar

The dollar index rose on Monday by more than 0.1%, reflecting stronger US currency levels against a basket of major and minor currencies.

Strong US labor market data released last week reduced the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in March.

US interest rates

•Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee said on Friday that interest rates could decline, but noted that inflation in the services sector remains elevated.

•According to the CME FedWatch tool: pricing for keeping US interest rates unchanged at the March meeting stands at 90%, while pricing for a 25 basis point cut stands at 10%.

•To reprice those expectations, investors are closely watching further US economic data releases, in addition to comments from Federal Reserve officials.

Silver outlook

Zain Vawda, analyst at MarketPulse by OANDA, said: As a more cycle-sensitive metal, any sign of economic strength reduces silver’s appeal as a safe haven compared with gold, and strong jobs data points to less immediate need for safe-haven assets.

Gold prices fell by 1.5% in the European market on Monday at the start of the week’s trading, amid thin activity due to the closure of major markets in China and the United States, and under negative pressure from a stronger US dollar.

Strong US labor market data reduced the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will cut US interest rates in March, with investors waiting for further evidence on the policy path later this year.

Price overview

•Gold prices today: Gold fell by 1.5% to ($4,964.84), from the session opening level at ($5,042.22), and recorded a high at ($5,042.22).

•At Friday’s close, gold prices rose by 2.45% after US consumer price data came in below expectations.

•The precious metal gold recorded a 1.6% gain last week, marking its second consecutive weekly advance.

Global markets

US markets are closed today for Presidents’ Day, while markets in China and several other Asian countries are closed for the Lunar New Year holiday until February 23.

The US dollar

The dollar index rose on Monday by more than 0.1%, reflecting stronger US currency levels against a basket of major and minor currencies.

As is known, a stronger US dollar makes dollar-denominated gold bullion less attractive to buyers holding other currencies.

Strong US labor market data released last week reduced the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in March.

US interest rates

•Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee said on Friday that interest rates could decline, but noted that inflation in the services sector remains elevated.

•According to the CME FedWatch tool: pricing for keeping US interest rates unchanged at the March meeting stands at 90%, while pricing for a 25 basis point cut stands at 10%.

•To reprice those expectations, investors are closely watching upcoming US economic data, in addition to comments from Federal Reserve officials.

Gold outlook

UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said: Gold is trading in a soft range around $5,000 per ounce this week, with liquidity reduced due to holidays.

Zain Vawda, analyst at MarketPulse by OANDA, said: I suggest lowering my medium-term gold price target from $5,500 to a range between $5,100 and $5,200 for now, but conditions remain highly volatile.

Vawda added: As a more cycle-sensitive metal, any sign of economic strength reduces silver’s appeal as a safe haven relative to gold, and strong jobs data points to less immediate need for safe-haven assets.

SPDR fund

Gold holdings at SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold-backed ETF, increased on Friday by about 0.86 metric tons, bringing the total to 1,077.04 metric tons, rebounding from 1,076.18 metric tons, which was the lowest level since January 15.

The euro declined in the European market on Monday against a basket of global currencies, extending its losses for the fifth consecutive day against the US dollar, as investors focused on buying the US currency after the odds of a near-term US Federal Reserve interest rate cut retreated.

With inflation pressures easing on European Central Bank policymakers, the probability of at least one European rate cut this year has improved, and markets are awaiting more economic data from the eurozone to reprice those expectations.

Price overview

•Euro exchange rate today: The euro fell against the dollar by more than 0.1% to (1.1859$), from today’s opening level at (1.1873$), and recorded a session high at (1.1875$).

•The euro closed Friday’s trading down by less than 0.1% against the dollar, marking its fourth consecutive daily loss.

The US dollar

The dollar index rose on Monday by more than 0.1%, reflecting stronger US currency levels against a basket of major and minor currencies.

Strong US labor market data released last week reduced the likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting US interest rates in March.

According to the CME FedWatch tool: pricing for keeping US interest rates unchanged at the March meeting currently stands at 90%, while pricing for a 25 basis point rate cut stands at 10%.

European interest rates

•Recent data released in Europe showed a slowdown in headline inflation levels during December, highlighting easing inflation pressures on the European Central Bank.

•Following that data, money markets raised pricing for a 25 basis point European Central Bank rate cut in February from 10% to 25%.

•Traders have adjusted their expectations from keeping European Central Bank rates unchanged throughout this year to at least one 25 basis point cut.

•To reprice the above probabilities, investors are awaiting more economic data from the eurozone on inflation, unemployment, and wages.

The Japanese yen declined in Asian trading on Monday at the start of the week against a basket of major and minor currencies, pulling back from a two-week high against the US dollar, due to correction and profit-taking activity, and after weaker-than-expected data on Japan’s economic growth in the final quarter of last year.

This decline comes ahead of an anticipated meeting between Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda to discuss the central bank’s policy direction and the outlook for interest rates.

Price Overview

• Japanese yen exchange rate today: The US dollar rose against the yen by 0.4% to ¥153.25, from today’s opening level at ¥152.66, and recorded a low of ¥152.58.

• The yen ended Friday’s session up by less than 0.1% against the dollar, marking its fifth consecutive daily gain, and recorded a two-week high at ¥152.27 in the previous session, supported by easing financial concerns in Japan.

• The Japanese yen gained 2.9% against the US dollar last week, marking its largest weekly gain since November 2024, amid a strong buying wave following the ruling party’s landslide victory in Japan.

Japanese Economy

Official data released today in Tokyo showed that the Japanese economy, the world’s fourth-largest economy, returned to growth “with difficulty,” posting figures that came in well below market expectations.

The Japanese economy grew by 0.1% in the fourth quarter of 2025, below expectations for 0.4% growth. However, this reading allowed Japan to avoid a technical recession — defined as two consecutive quarters of contraction — after a 0.7% contraction in the third quarter.

These weak figures represent the first serious economic test for the government of Sanae Takaichi following her sweeping election victory, and may strengthen the case for increased stimulus spending.

Takaichi – Ueda Meeting

The expected meeting between Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda is scheduled for today at 5:00 pm Tokyo time (08:00 GMT).

The meeting comes at a highly sensitive time for several reasons:

• First meeting after the landslide: It is their first bilateral meeting since Takaichi’s historic general election victory on February 8. Markets are watching whether she will pressure the central bank to maintain an accommodative monetary stance to support her stimulus plans.

• Weak growth data: The meeting comes hours after GDP data showed very modest growth in the final quarter of last year, potentially giving Takaichi additional justification to call for delaying any rate hike.

• Rate expectations: Markets are currently pricing roughly an 80% chance that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates again by April, especially with inflation still above target.

• New appointments: Takaichi has the authority to fill two vacant seats on the central bank’s board this year, which could be a key topic in discussions with Ueda regarding the future path of monetary policy.

Japanese Interest Rates

• Money markets are currently pricing the probability of a quarter-point rate hike by the Bank of Japan at the March meeting at below 10%.

• To reprice those expectations, investors are awaiting more data on inflation, unemployment, and wages in Japan.