Silver regains footing as dollar loses ground
Silver prices rose in European trade on Monday for the first time in four days, holding above two-week lows as the dollar loses ground.
The gains are also boosted by hopes of improving actual demand in China, especially from retailers looking for high-value investments.
The Price
Silver prices rose 0.8% today to $33.30 an ounce, with a session-low at $32.95.
On Friday, silver lost 1.65%, the third loss in a row, hitting a two-week trough at $32.66 under pressure from the dollar and US treasury yields.
Silver lost 2.35% last week, the first weekly loss in three weeks on profit-taking away from a five-month high at $34.08.
US Dollar
The dollar index fell 0.3% on Monday away from a two-week high at 104.22, on track for the first loss in four days against a basket of major rivals.
The dollar is also hurt by renewed concerns about the US economy as President Donald Trump prepares a new round of tariffs next week.
The odds of a Fed 0.25% interest rate cut at the May meeting stood at 12% according to the Fedwatch tool.
The odds of such a cut in June stood at a stronger 63%, with investors now waiting for a batch of important US data later today to gather more clues.
Chinese Demand
Recently released positive data from Beijing renewed hopes of a rebound in Chinese economic activities, which could boost demand in the world’s largest metals consumer.
Recently, Chinese authorities executed a series of strong fiscal and monetary stimulus plans to support the economy and bring it out of its recent slowdown.
Gold resumes gains as dollar dips
Gold prices rose in European trade on Friday and resumed the gains after a two-day hiatus, while holding above the historical barrier of $3000 as the dollar lost ground.
Now investors await important US data later today for March, expected to provide fresh pricing for the odds of a May interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve.
The Price
Gold prices rose 0.25% today to $3031 an ounce, with a session-low at $3013.
On Friday, gold lost 0.7%, the second loss in a row on profit-taking away from a record high at $3057.
Gold prices rose 1.3% last week, the third weekly profit in a row on strong haven demand amid mounting geopolitical tensions.
US Dollar
The dollar index fell 0.3% on Monday away from a two-week high at 104.22, on track for the first loss in four days against a basket of major rivals.
The dollar is also hurt by renewed concerns about the US economy as President Donald Trump prepares a new round of tariffs next week.
US Rates
Fed Chair Jerome Powell said last week the Fed won’t rush into rate cuts, and will wait for economic clarity amid mounting uncertainty on tariffs.
The odds of a Fed 0.25% interest rate cut at the May meeting stood at 12% according to the Fedwatch tool.
The odds of such a cut in June stood at a stronger 63%, with investors now waiting for a batch of important US data later today to gather more clues.
SPDR
Gold holdings at the SPDR Gold Trust rose 20.08 tons yesterday, the third rise in a row and the largest since February 21, to a total of 930.43 tons, the highest since June 2023.
Yen under pressure after grim data
The Japanese yen fell in European trade on Monday against a basket of major rivals, extending the losses against the dollar for the third straight session and about to trade below 150 amid concerns about a Japanese GDP contraction following grim data.
Yen is also pressured by higher US 10-year treasury yields following the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting, at which it asserted it won’t rate rate cuts.
The Yen
The USD/JPY rose 0.4% to 149.95, with a session-low at 149.33.
The yen lost 0.35% on Friday against the dollar, the second loss in a row as Japanese inflation slows down.
The yen lost 0.45% last week against the dollar as the odds of a Japanese rate hike in May retreated.
Weak Data
Earlier Japanese data showed factory activities fell by the fastest pace in a year during March as production and new orders dropped in a worrisome sign for the economy.
Japan’s manufacturing PMI fell to 48.3 in March, a year low, from 49 in February, remaining below the 50 barrier which separates growth from contraction for the ninth straight month.
Japanese Rates
The odds of a Bank of Japan interest rate hike at the May meeting are now below 50%.
Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said last week that there’s no specific predetermined schedule for rate hikes, with each decision dependent on new data and economic developments.
US Yields
US 10-year treasury yields rose 0.9% on Monday, offering more support to the dollar.
It comes as the Fed asserted it won’t rush into rate cuts and policy easing during its latest periodic meeting.
According to the Fedwatch tool, the odds of a May 0.25% Fed interest rate cut stood at just 12%.
Wall Street declines on track for weekly losses
US stock indices marked heavy losses on Friday while heading for a weekly decline amid renewed concerns about US inflation and recession.
The Fed decided to maintain interest rates at below 4.5%, but still expected two rate cuts this year.
The Fed raised its inflation forecasts this year and the next, while reducing its growth forecasts, triggering concerns about a potential recession.
On trading, Dow Jones fell 0.4%, or 140 points as of 15:11 GMT to 41,773 points, while S&P 500 fell 0.4% to 5637 points, as NASDAQ dropped 0.3% to 17,632 points.