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Silver rebounds from early 2016 lows, dollar ekes out gains

Economies.com
2018-11-15 20:18PM UTC

Silver futures rallied over one percent in American trade away from January 2016 lows, while the dollar index barely inched up for the day, following a stream of US data and after speeches by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. 

 

As of 07:54 GMT, silver futures due in December rose 1.49% to $14.29 an ounce away from early 2016 lows, while the dollar index inched up 0.06% to 97.06 against a basket of major rivals. 

 

US Labor, Retail Data 

 

Earlier US data showed retail sales rose 0.8% in October, passing estimates of a 0.6% increase, and sharply higher from September's 0.1% increase. 

 

Core sales, excluding transportation, rose 0.7%, besting estimates of 0.5%, and compared to September's 0.1% dip. 

 

The Philly Manufacturing Index slowed down to 12.9 in November, missing estimates of 20.1, and compared to October's 22.2. 

 

Unemployment claims for the week ending last Saturday rose to 216 thousand from 214K in the previous reading, missing estimates of a dip to 213K, while continuing claims for the week ending November 3 rose to 1.676 million from 1.630 million. 

 

Wholesale inventories rose 0.3% as expected in September, slowing down from a 0.5% increase in August. 

 

In his speech in Dallas earlier, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said every periodic policy meeting is open for raising interest rates, while crediting the bank for putting the economy "in a good place". 

 

At a later speech today in Dallas as well, Powell expressed his content with the the economy's current strength and his opposition to trade protectionism due to its harmfulness to the economy.   

 

Powell noted how the pace of interest rates hikes is one of the main future challenges facing the Federal Reserve, especially as the global economy is expected to slow down slightly soon. 

Oil powers up, shrugging off US inventory surge

Economies.com
2018-11-15 20:04PM UTC

Oil futures rose in American trade, shrugging off a spike in US crude inventories for the eighth week in a row, amid reports that OPEC and allies are considering a 1.4 million bpd cut in 2019.

 

As of 07:15 GMT, US crude futures due in December rose 1.14% to $56.64 a barrel, while Brent January futures rallied 0.91% to $66.72 a barrel, as the dollar index inched up 0.09% to 97.10. 

 

US Labor, Retail Data 

 

Earlier US data showed retail sales rose 0.8% in October, passing estimates of a 0.6% increase, and sharply higher from September's 0.1% increase. 

 

Core sales, excluding transportation, rose 0.7%, besting estimates of 0.5%, and compared to September's 0.1% dip. 

 

The Philly Manufacturing Index slowed down to 12.9 in November, missing estimates of 20.1, and compared to October's 22.2. 

 

Unemployment claims for the week ending last Saturday rose to 216 thousand from 214K in the previous reading, missing estimates of a dip to 213K, while continuing claims for the week ending November 3 rose to 1.676 million from 1.630 million. 

 

Wholesale inventories rose 0.3% as expected in September, slowing down from a 0.5% increase in August. 

 

In his speech in Dallas earlier, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said every periodic policy meeting is open for raising interest rates, while crediting the bank for restoring momentum in the economy and staving off recession. 

 

At a later speech today in Dallas as well, Powell expressed his content with the the economy's current strength and his opposition to trade protectionism due to its harmfulness to the economy.   

 

Powell noted how the pace of interest rates hikes is one of the main future challenges facing the Federal Reserve, especially as the global economy is expected to slow down slightly soon. 

 

US Inventory Surge 

 

The Energy Information Administration released its report on US crude stocks, showing a build of 10.3 million barrels in the week ending November 9, adding to the 5.8 million build in the previous week, while analysts expected just 2.9 million, with total stocks now up to 442 million barrels, making them 5% above five-year averages. 

 

Gasoline stocks rose 1.4% million barrels, making them 7% above averages, while distillate stocks, including heating fuel, fell 3.6 million barrels, making them 8% below averages. 

 

On another note, US President Donald Trump issued financial sanctions against 17 major Saudi nationals in response to the death of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, after the Saudi authorities officially sought the death penalty for 11 individuals accused of murder, rattling the market to a certain degree. 

 

OPEC President and UAE energy minister Suhail Al Mazroui expressed his confidence that OPEC and its allies will work on preventing an inventory buildup next year, noting how output has surpasses expectations recently, requiring a change in strategy. 

 

Otherwise, Russian energy minister Alexander Novak said long-term prices should be taken into consideration when taking decisions, adding that prices are averaging $70 a barrel this year, but the market continues to be highly volatile after US sanctions on Iran last week. 

 

Similarly, OPEC Secretary General Muhammad Barkindo noted that current price volatility is natural as investors grow weary of OPEC's impending decisions alongside allies on output and worries about oversupplies and weaker demand. 

 

OPEC's monthly report 

 

OPEC released its monthly report on global demand and supply outlook for 219, at which it cut estimates for demand on its own oil by 250 thousand to 31.54 million bpd next year. 

 

Conversely, OPEC expects an increase in global supplies 2019 outside OPEC in particular, with global demand growth overall estimated to fall by 70 thousand bpd to 1.29 million bpd. 

 

OPEC reported its output rose 127 thousand bpd in October to 32.90 million bpd despite the drop in Iranian supplies. 

 

Otherwise, Saudi Arabia oil minister Khalid Al Falih said Sunday that his country plans to cut crude supplies for global markets by 500 thousand bpd in December due to lower seasonal demand. 

 

US President Donald Trump called on Saudi Arabia and OPEC to not cut output, believing that prices should be lower based on demand and supply foundation, which comes a week after the US reinstated sanctions on Iranian oil exports, with the Trump's administration counting back then on Saudi Arabia to fill Iran's void in the market.

 

Iran Sanctions 

 

Otherwise, as US sanctions went into effect on Iranian oil exports starting November 4, eight countries were granted waivers for 180 days, mainly China, India, South Korea, Japan, Italy, Greece, Taiwan, and Turkey, already the largest importers of Iranian oil. 

 

In Russia, output rose to a new record of 11.41 million bpd in October, after averaging 11.36 million bpd in September. 

 

US Oil Rig Count 

 

Baker Hughes, a US oil services company, reported an increase of 12 rigs in the rig count to a total of 886, the highest since March 2015. 

Sterling plunges 2% after Brexit minister's resignation

Economies.com
2018-11-15 18:46PM UTC

Sterling slumped nearly two percent in American trade to October 31 lows versus the greenback, following earlier data from Britain and the US, while the UK Brexit minister Dominic Raab resigned from Theresa May's government in protest of the current initial exit agreement with the EU following similar resignations in the Conservative party and the government. 

 

As of 06:33 GMT, GBP/USD fell 0.53% to 1.2908, with an intraday low at 1.2882, and a high at 1.3036. 

 

Earlier UK data showed retail sales fell 0.5% m/m in October, compared to a 0.4% drop in September, while analysts expected a 0.2% increase, as core sales, excluding fuel, fell 0.4%, sharpening a 0.3% drop in September. 

 

On a yearly basis, retail sales rose 2.2%, slowing down sharply from 3.3% in September, and missing estimates of 2.8%, as core sales slowed down as well to 2.7% from 3.6%. 

 

US Labor, Retail Data 

 

Otherwise, earlier US data showed retail sales rose 0.8% in October, passing estimates of a 0.6% increase, and sharply higher from September's 0.1% increase. 

 

Core sales, excluding transportation, rose 0.7%, besting estimates of 0.5%, and compared to September's 0.1% dip. 

 

The Philly Manufacturing Index slowed down to 12.9 in November, missing estimates of 20.1, and compared to October's 22.2. 

 

Unemployment claims for the week ending last Saturday rose to 216 thousand from 214K in the previous reading, missing estimates of a dip to 213K, while continuing claims for the week ending November 3 rose to 1.676 million from 1.630 million. 

 

Wholesale inventories rose 0.3% as expected in September, slowing down from a 0.5% increase in August. 

 

In his speech in Dallas earlier, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said every periodic policy meeting is open for raising interest rates, while crediting the bank for restoring momentum in the economy and staving off recession. 

 

At a later speech today, Powell passed any opportunity to indicate that current volatility in the stock market would have any impact on monetary policies, paving the way for continued policy tightening and gradual rate hikes. 

Euro extends recovery from early 2017 nadir versus greenback

Economies.com
2018-11-15 17:59PM UTC

Euro inched higher from January 2017 lows against the greenback following a basket of data from the euro zone and the US today.

 

As of 05:48 GMT, EUR/USD rose 0.11% to 1.1323, with an intraday high at 1.1351, and a low at 1.1271. 

 

Earlier euro zone data showed the trade surplus down to 13.4 billion euros from 16.8 billion in August, missing estimates of 16.4 billion. 

 

Otherwise, earlier US data showed retail sales rose 0.8% in October, passing estimates of a 0.6% increase, and sharply higher from September's 0.1% increase. 

 

Core sales, excluding transportation, rose 0.7%, besting estimates of 0.5%, and compared to September's 0.1% dip. 

 

The Philly Manufacturing Index slowed down to 12.9 in November, missing estimates of 20.1, and compared to October's 22.2. 

 

Unemployment claims for the week ending last Saturday rose to 216 thousand from 214K in the previous reading, missing estimates of a dip to 213K, while continuing claims for the week ending November 3 rose to 1.676 million from 1.630 million. 

 

Wholesale inventories rose 0.3% as expected in September, slowing down from a 0.5% increase in August. 

 

In his speech in Dallas earlier, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said every periodic policy meeting is open for raising interest rates, while crediting the bank for restoring momentum in the economy and staving off recession.