Silver prices rose in the European market on Monday, extending gains for a third consecutive session and continuing to smash record highs, especially after breaching the psychological $100-per-ounce level and reaching $110 for the first time ever. The rally has been driven by strong buying from retail investors, alongside broad weakness in the US dollar against a basket of currencies.

Recent decisions by US President Donald Trump have deepened the loss of confidence in the US administration and in dollar-denominated assets, after adding to political confusion and economic uncertainty.

Price overview

• Silver prices today: Silver surged 6.6% to $110.13 per ounce, the highest level on record, from an opening level of $103.29, which also marked the session low.

• At Friday’s settlement, silver prices jumped 7.4%, recording a second consecutive daily gain after breaking above the $100-per-ounce level for the first time in history.

• Silver prices climbed 14.5% last week, marking a third straight weekly gain, driven by strong demand for the white metal.

US dollar

The US dollar index fell by more than 0.5% on Monday, extending losses for a third consecutive session and hitting a four-month low at 96.95 points, reflecting continued weakness in the US currency against a basket of major and secondary currencies.

As widely known, a weaker US dollar makes dollar-priced bullion more attractive to buyers holding other currencies.

The decline comes amid accelerating dollar selling, fueled by growing concerns over potential intervention by monetary authorities in both the United States and Japan to curb volatility and stabilize exchange rates.

This is compounded by rising political and economic risks in the United States, alongside waning confidence in dollar-denominated assets and expanding global uncertainty.

Trump threats

Over the weekend, US President Donald Trump sharply escalated his trade threats, announcing plans to impose 100% tariffs on Canada if it proceeds with a trade agreement with China.

He also threatened to levy 200% tariffs on French wine and champagne. This move was not merely economic in nature, but a clear attempt to pressure French President Emmanuel Macron to join Trump’s new initiative known as the “Peace Council” for Gaza.

US interest rates

• The Federal Reserve’s first monetary policy meeting of the year begins tomorrow, Tuesday, with decisions due on Wednesday. Expectations remain firmly anchored around keeping interest rates unchanged.

• According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of leaving US interest rates unchanged at the January 2026 meeting stands at 97%, while the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut is priced at 3%.

• Investors are currently pricing in two US rate cuts over the coming year, while Federal Reserve projections point to a single 25-basis-point cut.

• To reassess these expectations, investors are closely monitoring upcoming US economic data.

Silver outlook

HSBC noted in a report last week that the recent surge in gold and silver prices has been driven by geopolitical tensions related to Greenland.

Gold prices rose on Monday at the start of the week, extending gains for a sixth consecutive session and continuing to shatter record highs after breaching the historic psychological $5,000-per-ounce level for the first time ever.

Prices are now moving sharply closer to $5,100 per ounce, supported by strong demand for the metal as a safe haven amid rising global geopolitical risks, alongside a broad and sustained decline in the US dollar.

Recent decisions by US President Donald Trump have deepened the loss of confidence in the US administration and in dollar-denominated assets, after increasing political confusion and economic uncertainty.

Price overview

• Gold prices today: Gold rose 2.15% to $5,093.13 per ounce, marking a new all-time high, from an opening level of $4,986.45, which also represented the session low.

• At Friday’s settlement, the precious metal gained about 1.0%, recording a fifth consecutive daily advance, supported by weaker US dollar levels.

• Gold prices climbed 8.5% last week, posting a third straight weekly gain and the strongest weekly rise since March 2020, during the outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic.

US dollar

The US dollar index fell by more than 0.5% on Monday, extending losses for a third straight session and hitting a four-month low at 96.95 points, reflecting continued weakness in the US currency against a basket of major and secondary currencies.

As widely known, a weaker US dollar makes dollar-priced gold bullion more attractive to buyers holding other currencies.

The decline comes amid an acceleration in dollar selling, driven by growing concerns over potential intervention by monetary authorities in both the United States and Japan to curb volatility and stabilize exchange rates.

This is compounded by rising political and economic risks in the United States, alongside waning confidence in dollar-denominated assets and expanding global uncertainty.

Trump threats

Over the weekend, US President Donald Trump sharply escalated his trade threats, announcing plans to impose 100% tariffs on Canada if it proceeds with a trade agreement with China.

He also threatened to levy 200% tariffs on French wine and champagne. This move was not merely economic in nature, but a clear attempt to pressure French President Emmanuel Macron to join Trump’s new initiative known as the “Peace Council” for Gaza.

US interest rates

• The Federal Reserve’s first monetary policy meeting of the year begins tomorrow, Tuesday, with decisions due on Wednesday. Expectations remain firmly anchored around keeping interest rates unchanged.

• According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of leaving US interest rates unchanged at the January 2026 meeting stands at 97%, while the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut is priced at 3%.

• Investors are currently pricing in two US rate cuts over the coming year, while Federal Reserve projections point to a single 25-basis-point cut.

• To reassess these expectations, investors are closely monitoring upcoming US economic data.

Gold outlook

Kyle Rodda, analyst at Capital.com, said the latest catalyst is effectively a crisis of confidence in the US administration and US assets, exacerbated by a series of erratic decisions taken by the Trump administration last week.

Rodda added that the Trump administration has created a lasting fracture in how things operate, prompting investors to turn to gold as the only viable alternative.

HSBC noted in a report last week that the recent surge in gold and silver prices was driven by geopolitical tensions related to Greenland.

Analysts at UBP said gold prices have been supported by sustained demand from both institutional and retail investors. They added that they expect another strong year for gold, reflecting continued investment demand from central banks and individuals, with a year-end price target of $5,200 per ounce.

Goldman Sachs raised its December 2026 gold price forecast on Thursday to $5,400 per ounce from $4,900 previously.

SPDR

Holdings of the SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, rose by about 6.87 metric tons on Friday, marking a second consecutive daily increase and lifting total holdings to 1,086.53 metric tons, the highest level since May 3, 2022.

The Japanese yen rose broadly in Asian trading on Monday at the start of the week against a basket of global currencies, extending its gains for a second consecutive day against the US dollar and hitting a two-month high. The move was supported by continued selling pressure on the US currency, as well as growing speculation about possible intervention by US and Japanese monetary authorities in the foreign exchange market.

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York conducted a review of the dollar/yen exchange rate with market participants, a step widely viewed as a strong signal of potential intervention, amid ongoing and intensified coordination between US and Japanese authorities to address sharp market volatility.

Price overview

• Japanese yen exchange rate today: The dollar fell 1.25% against the yen to 153.81, its lowest level since last November, from Friday’s close at 155.74. The dollar recorded an intraday high at 155.34.

• The yen ended Friday’s session up 1.65% against the dollar, marking the first loss for the US currency in three days and the yen’s largest daily gain since last August, driven by rising speculation over foreign exchange intervention.

• The yen gained 1.5% against the dollar last week, recording its first weekly gain in a month, supported by an acceleration in the unwinding of yen carry trades.

US dollar

The US dollar index fell by more than 0.5% on Monday, extending its losses for a third consecutive session and hitting a four-month low at 96.95 points, reflecting continued weakness in the US currency against a basket of major and secondary currencies.

The decline comes alongside an acceleration in dollar selling, amid rising concerns over possible intervention by monetary authorities in both the United States and Japan to curb volatility and stabilize price movements.

This is in addition to increasing political and economic risks in the United States, accompanied by declining confidence in dollar-denominated assets and a widening state of uncertainty across global markets.

Joint US–Japan intervention

Sources told Reuters that the Federal Reserve Bank of New York had reviewed dollar/yen exchange rate levels with market participants, a move seen as a strong signal of potential intervention, amid continued and intensive coordination between US and Japanese authorities to counter sharp market fluctuations.

Senior Japanese officials, including the finance minister and top diplomats, confirmed on Monday that they are in “close coordination” with the United States on foreign exchange issues, based on a joint statement issued in September 2025.

Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi warned that the government would “take necessary action” against any abnormal or speculative movements in the market.

Japanese interest rates

• In line with most market expectations, the Bank of Japan left its benchmark interest rate unchanged on Friday at 0.75%, the highest level since 1995.

• The decision to hold rates was approved by an 8–1 vote, with one board member calling for a 25-basis-point hike to 1.0%. The bank opted to pause in order to assess the impact of the rate increase implemented in December 2025.

• The Bank of Japan raised its economic growth and inflation forecasts for the fiscal year ending March 2026, signaling readiness to continue tightening monetary policy and gradually raise borrowing costs.

• Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said the central bank would continue to raise interest rates if economic conditions and prices evolve in line with expectations, stressing the importance of inflation trends in policy decisions.

• Market pricing for a 25-basis-point rate hike at the Bank of Japan’s March meeting remains below 20%.

• Expectations for a 25-basis-point hike at the April meeting have risen to above 50%.

• To reassess these expectations, investors are awaiting further data on inflation, employment, and wage growth in Japan.

Gold and silver prices rose sharply during Friday’s trading, as escalating geopolitical tensions and market uncertainty pushed investors toward safe-haven assets, driving both precious metals to unprecedented record highs.

The gains came amid ongoing disputes between the United States and NATO over Greenland, as well as growing concerns surrounding the independence of the Federal Reserve.

Separately, media reports indicated that the administration of US President Donald Trump is considering a plan to impose a naval blockade around Cuba in an effort to control its oil flows.

In trading activity, February gold futures settled up 1.35%, or $66.3, at $4,979.70 per ounce, marking the sixth record close in 2026. The precious metal also posted a weekly gain of 8.4%, its strongest weekly performance since the onset of the pandemic crisis in 2020.

Meanwhile, March silver futures surged 5.2% to $101.33 per ounce, closing above the $100 level for the first time ever and recording weekly gains of 14.45%.