As trading in 2025 draws to a close, analysts and investors across global markets agree on one clear conclusion: this was, without question, the year of silver.

While other assets captured headlines early in the year, silver quietly built a historic launch base that ultimately delivered extraordinary annual gains exceeding 150%, marking the metal’s strongest performance in more than four decades, specifically since 1979.

Breaking Historical Barriers

The year 2025 was not a typical rally, but rather a period of genuine price liberation. In October, silver decisively broke above the $49.76 per ounce level, the long-standing record high that had held since April 2011.

Following that breakout, silver entered a powerful and uninterrupted upward phase, repeatedly setting new records and ultimately reaching an all-time high of $83.97 per ounce on December 29, 2025.

Key Drivers Behind the Rally

While global attention focused on record highs in gold, silver delivered the year’s biggest surprise, posting gains that stunned markets. This explosive move was fueled by a rare convergence of structural challenges and investment opportunities during 2025, restoring silver’s status as a strategic metal. The main drivers included:

1. Retail Investor Demand

Silver saw an unprecedented surge in demand from retail investors and individual buyers, particularly for physical bullion and coins.

This momentum was driven by silver’s prolonged undervaluation relative to gold, whose prices had already reached historic highs. As a result, silver bullion emerged as a more accessible and attractive option for investors seeking to preserve wealth against the erosion of fiat currency purchasing power.

2. Strong Industrial Demand

Silver solidified its role as a critical input for future technologies, with industrial demand reaching a historic peak in 2025 amid rapid expansion in solar energy and electric vehicle production.

In addition, silver became increasingly embedded in infrastructure linked to artificial intelligence technologies, sectors that consume large volumes well beyond what current supply can comfortably meet.

3. Global Supply Deficit

Supply pressures intensified as the silver market entered its fifth consecutive year of structural deficit.

Declining output from major mines and the depletion of available global inventories made it impossible for supply to keep pace with surging demand, propelling prices to unprecedented levels.

4. Global Monetary Policy Shifts

The year 2025 marked a turning point in global monetary policy, with the US Federal Reserve and other major central banks continuing a cycle of interest rate cuts.

This environment sharply reduced the opportunity cost of holding precious metals, prompting large investment funds to channel substantial liquidity into both gold and silver markets.

Additional Supporting Factors

Safe-haven demand increased sharply amid escalating geopolitical tensions throughout 2025, driving capital flows into precious metals as protection against economic instability.

The decline in the US dollar, driven by rate cuts, enhanced silver’s appeal to international buyers by lowering its cost in non-dollar terms and boosting global demand.

Aggressive price forecasts and extensive media coverage also played a role, as bold projections from prominent analysts attracted widespread attention, reinforcing speculative demand and helping turn expectations into reality before year-end.

Silver Outperforms Gold

Spot silver prices surged by roughly 150% in 2025, far outperforming gold, which gained more than 70%. This outperformance was supported by strong investment demand, silver’s inclusion among US critical minerals, and sustained buying by major funds.

Kiyosaki’s Call and the 2026 Outlook

Financial author Robert Kiyosaki, best known for Rich Dad Poor Dad, was among the most vocal proponents of silver’s rally, accurately predicting a move to $70 per ounce before the end of 2025.

With the year now closing at record levels, attention has shifted to his more ambitious 2026 forecast, which envisions silver reaching $200 per ounce.

While such a target may appear extreme, current market dynamics suggest that silver’s price floor has permanently shifted higher. With ongoing erosion in fiat currency purchasing power and rising industrial dependence, silver appears to have left behind its long-standing status as an underappreciated metal, entering a new era of price leadership in global markets.

Bullish Expectations for 2026

Forecasts for 2026 vary between cautious optimism and strong bullish conviction. Although most institutions stop short of Kiyosaki’s $200 target, there is broad consensus that silver will remain on an upward trajectory. Key institutional outlooks include:

Goldman Sachs expects silver to be the primary strategic metal for the green transition, projecting an average price range of $85–$100 per ounce in 2026, supported by AI-related demand and solar expansion. The bank believes the structural supply deficit will make sustained moves below $70 increasingly difficult.

UBS anticipates continued outperformance versus gold in 2026, targeting around $95 per ounce, citing ongoing Federal Reserve easing, a weaker dollar, and increased institutional allocations to silver.

Citigroup has raised its outlook, flagging the potential for prices to reach $110 per ounce in the second half of 2026, driven by explosive demand from the electric vehicle sector and the risk of acute shortages in deliverable physical silver.

The Silver Institute refrained from assigning a specific price target but warned that the supply-demand gap could reach critical levels in 2026. It suggested that prices above $120 per ounce may be required to incentivize higher mine output or encourage investors to release holdings to meet industrial demand.

Commerzbank takes a more conservative stance, expecting prices to stabilize around $80–$85 per ounce. The bank cautioned that the sharp gains of 2025 could trigger profit-taking early in 2026 before the broader uptrend resumes.

US stock indexes declined in Wednesday’s session amid thin liquidity in the final trading day of 2025, while Wall Street still posted strong gains for the year.

Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s latest meeting, released on Tuesday, revealed a sharp split among policymakers over the decision to cut interest rates earlier this month.

The minutes also showed that policymakers broadly supported continuing to ease policy if inflation slows over time, in line with expectations.

Projections from the 19 officials who attended the December meeting – including 12 voting members – pointed to the possibility of one additional rate cut in 2026 followed by another in 2027, which could bring the policy rate close to 3%, a level officials consider “neutral,” meaning it neither restrains nor significantly stimulates economic growth.

At the close of trading, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.6%, or 303 points, to 48,306 points. Despite the decline, the index posted annual gains of 12.5% and a monthly increase of 0.7% in December, after hitting an intraday high of 48,394 points and a low of 48,050 points.

The broader S&P 500 declined by 0.7%, or 50 points, to 6,845 points. The index recorded annual gains of about 16.4% in 2025, its strongest performance since 2020, while posting a monthly loss of roughly 0.1%. It reached a high of 6,901 points and a low of 6,844 points during the session.

The Nasdaq Composite also fell by 0.7%, or 177 points, to 23,242 points. The index surged 20.4% on an annual basis, but posted a monthly decline of 0.5%. It touched a session high of 23,445 points and a low of 23,237 points.

The global investment landscape in 2026 is marked by sharply diverging paths between precious metals and cryptocurrencies. While gold and silver continue to benefit from supportive macroeconomic tailwinds, Bitcoin and other digital assets face headwinds stemming from liquidity constraints, regulatory uncertainty, and shifting investor risk appetite. This divergence underscores the importance of recalibrating investment portfolios in line with evolving macroeconomic conditions and changing risk profiles.

Precious metals: a macro-driven safe haven

Gold has emerged in 2026 as a core pillar of macroeconomic resilience. According to a report by FX Empire, gold prices rose by 65% in 2025, with forecasts pointing to a potential move toward $6,000 per ounce in 2026. This performance is underpinned by persistent inflation risks, liquidity injections by the Federal Reserve, and a weakening labour market, all of which bolster demand for safe-haven assets. Central bank purchases, particularly in emerging markets, further reinforce gold’s structural appeal.

Silver, despite its higher volatility, has also shown strong momentum, posting gains of 142.6% in 2025. Its dual role as an industrial commodity and a speculative asset creates a unique dynamic, although its price trajectory remains more sensitive to economic cycles in industrial demand and speculative positioning than gold, according to market analyses.

The macroeconomic environment in 2026—characterised by rising geopolitical tensions, a weaker dollar, and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve—positions gold as a primary hedge against systemic risks. Taken together, these factors suggest that precious metals will remain a strategic asset class for investors seeking to mitigate downside risks in a fragmented global economy.

Cryptocurrencies: correction, uncertainty, and a path to recovery

Bitcoin’s performance in 2025 was notably weaker, with prices correcting by 22% in the fourth quarter, trading near $87,000 in December 2025, well below the October peak of $125,000. This underperformance highlights Bitcoin’s sensitivity to liquidity conditions and regulatory developments. According to analysts on the StockTwits platform, the correction reflects a broader adjustment phase driven by changing investor behaviour and tighter monetary conditions.

Risks surrounding the cryptocurrency market remain elevated in 2026. Regulatory uncertainty, particularly in the United States, continues to weigh on institutional adoption, while speculative positioning leaves the market vulnerable to further volatility. That said, the outlook is not without optimism. Grayscale’s 2026 forecasts suggest a resolution of the four-year market cycle, with the possibility of Bitcoin reaching a new record high in the first half of 2026, supported by a clearer regulatory framework and rising institutional capital inflows.

Strategic implications for investors

The divergent trajectories of precious metals and cryptocurrencies call for a nuanced approach to portfolio positioning. For investors prioritising macroeconomic stability, gold offers a reliable hedge against inflation, currency depreciation, and geopolitical shocks. Its role as a store of value is reinforced by central bank demand and technical breakouts in price trends.

By contrast, cryptocurrencies remain high-risk, high-reward assets. While Bitcoin’s long-term potential has not disappeared, its short- to medium-term outlook remains clouded by liquidity constraints and regulatory challenges. Investors with higher risk tolerance may consider selective exposure to cryptocurrencies, particularly as institutional infrastructure matures—such as exchange-traded funds and stablecoins—according to market expectations, but only within a strict risk management framework.

Conclusion

The 2026 investment landscape highlights a critical contrast between macro-driven opportunities in precious metals and the corrective pressures facing cryptocurrencies. Gold’s enduring appeal as a safe haven stands in clear contrast to Bitcoin’s cyclical volatility and regulatory hurdles. For investors, the optimal path lies in aligning asset allocation with macroeconomic fundamentals while maintaining disciplined risk management. As the year unfolds, the interaction between these asset classes will remain a defining feature of global markets.

Bitcoin versus gold: which asset could outperform in 2026?

Gold has clearly outperformed Bitcoin this year, although both are currently undergoing corrective phases. Bitcoin consolidation risks a downside break, while gold awaits a renewed surge in momentum. With expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, both assets remain positioned for strength over the longer term.

Gold and Bitcoin are often viewed as competitors for investor capital, but it is important to highlight several fundamental differences, most notably volatility and the prevailing perception of Bitcoin as a high-risk asset. Looking at full-year returns, gold has been the clear winner, rising by more than 65%, while Bitcoin continues to struggle with its current 5% decline. The broad correction in Bitcoin and the local, dynamic pullback in gold create compelling conditions for long-term repositioning at more attractive price levels. Against this backdrop, an analysis of the current technical setup for both assets and their outlook for the coming year is warranted.

Bitcoin awaits a breakout from its consolidation range

When comparing Bitcoin’s recent behaviour with its historical cycles over more than a decade, many analysts point to a recurring pattern suggesting the market is currently in a corrective phase that could extend through much of the coming year. This scenario becomes more likely if Bitcoin breaks below its current consolidation range between $80,000 and $94,000 per coin. Such a downside break could open the door to selling pressure toward the $74,000 level.

In the short term, demand is clearly struggling to regain control, largely due to continued outflows from exchange-traded funds, which alone saw around $780 million in assets under management exit during the holiday period.

Accordingly, the base-case scenario assumes further deepening of the correction, while maintaining the view that the long-term trend remains upward and that deeper pullbacks may offer opportunities to build long positions at more favourable prices.

Gold pulls back into year-end

The holiday period was marked by a continuation of gold’s broader uptrend, peaking with a breakout to new highs just below $4,600 per ounce. These levels proved short-lived, however, as a sharp pullback erased all Christmas-period gains and pushed prices back toward the $4,300 per ounce area.

The start of the new year does not materially alter the medium-term constructive outlook for gold, given expectations of further interest rate cuts and fiscal expansion in the United States, alongside persistent geopolitical tensions, particularly related to Taiwan. Under a conservative target scenario, assuming supportive growth conditions persist, gold could move toward the psychologically important $5,000 per ounce level.

When compared with Bitcoin, gold currently appears more likely to maintain its upward trajectory. However, should Bitcoin’s correction deepen further, its percentage upside potential could become significantly higher, provided bullish momentum returns. In both markets, a dovish Federal Reserve stance— with markets pricing in at least two rate cuts over the next twelve months—would generally favour buyers.

What will drive currency markets in 2026?

1. The direction of interest rates, not their speed

By 2026, major central banks are no longer in a race to raise interest rates. Instead, markets are pricing in gradual and conditional easing, with timing differences across regions. The key institutions shaping foreign exchange expectations include the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, and the European Central Bank. What matters now is relative positioning: who cuts first, who pauses longer, and who signals caution. Small differences here can move exchange rates more than headline news.

2. Capital flows and yield preference

In calmer market conditions, investors tend to favour predictable policy paths, stable yields, and clear settlement frameworks. This supports major currencies but limits sharp moves unless new risks emerge.

3. Trade, energy, and supply chains

Energy prices and trade routes continue to influence currencies, particularly in Europe, but these factors now play more of a background role rather than acting as primary drivers compared with previous years.

US dollar outlook for 2026

The US dollar enters 2026 from a position of strength, supported by deep capital markets, strong demand for US assets, and its continued role as the world’s reserve currency. However, upside momentum appears more limited than in recent years.

Dollar outlook for 2026:

– Gradual depreciation is possible if US interest rates fall faster than those of peers.

– A sharp decline is unlikely without a policy shock.

– The dollar remains attractive during periods of uncertainty.

For buyers of sterling and the euro, favourable windows may emerge, but they could close quickly.

Sterling outlook for 2026

Sterling’s role in 2026 is more about relative value than domestic debate. The UK benefits from a mature financial system, clear political communication, and sustained demand for UK assets. Challenges remain, but they are largely understood and already priced in.

Sterling outlook for 2026:

– Likely to trade within defined ranges against the dollar and the euro.

– More sensitive to changes in interest rate expectations than to news headlines.

– Opportunities tend to arise around central bank meetings.

For property-related transactions, planning is likely to be more effective than speculation in 2026.

Euro outlook for 2026

The euro’s prospects improve as interest rate differentials narrow, though its performance remains selective. Strengths include a large trading bloc, improved fiscal coordination, and reduced energy cost pressures compared with previous years. Constraints persist due to uneven growth among member states.

Euro outlook for 2026:

– More stable performance against the dollar.

– Range-bound trading versus sterling.

– Stronger gains linked to policy clarity rather than surprises.

What does this mean for large currency transfers in 2026?

For individuals and businesses transferring £50,000 or more, currency movements become more significant than general forecasts. The biggest risks in 2026 include waiting without a plan, relying on last-minute spot rates, and ignoring downside protection tools.

Smarter approaches include monitoring prices using conditional orders, forward contracts to lock in known costs, and staged transfers to reduce timing risk. These strategies aim to protect outcomes rather than chase peaks.

Short-term versus long-term currency planning

Short term, over weeks to months, markets are likely to see calm ranges punctuated by occasional spikes, with central bank messaging as the main catalyst. Over the longer term, six to eighteen months, trends will be driven by relative policy paths, with major moves requiring structural changes rather than temporary noise.

Final takeaway: a practical view of currencies in 2026

Currency markets in 2026 reward preparation more than prediction. Rather than asking whether a currency will rise or whether today is the best day, the more relevant question becomes how to manage exposure effectively in an environment shaped by relative policy paths, disciplined risk management, and clear planning.

Sterling edged slightly lower against the dollar on Wednesday, but it remains on track to post its biggest annual gain in eight years.

However, the pound has underperformed the euro in 2025 and is expected to finish the year as the weakest major European currency.

Sterling was last down 0.2% against the dollar at $1.3436. Over the course of the year, the pound has gained 7.5%, marking its largest annual rise since a 9.5% increase in 2017.

By contrast, the euro, Swiss franc, and Norwegian and Swedish krona have all risen between 13% and 19% against the dollar this year.

Against the euro, sterling slipped 0.1% on Wednesday and is down more than 5% over 2025 to 87.24 pence, its largest annual decline versus the single currency since 2020.

Fiscal concerns cap gains

Despite sterling’s strength against a broadly weaker dollar, domestic political uncertainty, concerns over UK public finances, and stagnant growth weighed on the currency during the second half of the year.

The key event for currency traders was the autumn budget, but November’s fiscal announcement passed without major controversy, easing some of the pressure that had built up on the pound in the latter part of the year.

Sterling’s performance in 2026 is expected to hinge on monetary policy moves by the Bank of England. The central bank cut borrowing costs four times in 2025, including in December, although the Monetary Policy Committee remains divided, with policymakers signalling that the pace of rate cuts could slow further.

Money market traders have yet to fully price in another potential rate cut before June. Markets are currently pricing around 40 basis points of easing by year-end, implying roughly a 60% chance of a second rate cut.

Kevin Thozet, a member of the investment committee at Carmignac, said: “With the budget behind us, slowing economic growth, a weakening labour market, and rising bond yields will allow the Bank of England to cut interest rates further.”

He added: “The dilemma facing policymakers has eased, at least in the short term.”