Palladium prices rose on Thursday as the US dollar weakened against most major currencies and speculation increased that the Federal Reserve is moving toward a rate cut.

Sibanye-Stillwater, a US-listed miner, is seeking tariffs on Russian palladium imports, a step that could add volatility to the metal’s price.

The Johannesburg-based company said its petition adds further uncertainty to the outlook for platinum group metals (PGMs), following a rally since the start of the year driven by lower output in South Africa during the first half and thin liquidity in the spot market.

“We believe Russian palladium imports are being sold below market prices due to several factors, which began after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022,” CEO Neal Froneman said in a July 31 statement on the company’s website.

He added: “Securing protection against subsidized and dumped Russian imports will allow Sibanye-Stillwater, its employees, and the entire US PGM industry to compete in a fairer environment.”

A decision on the petition is expected within 13 months.

Norilsk Nickel, the Russian company that controls about 40% of global mined palladium output, declined to comment.

Sibanye-Stillwater, which operates production assets in South Africa and the US, reported a second consecutive annual loss last year after writing down 500 million dollars from its US palladium operations amid weaker prices.

Spot palladium prices have risen 31% so far in 2025, with positive expectations for the rest of the year. A July Reuters poll showed analysts expect palladium prices to climb in 2025 for the first time in four years, supported by gains in platinum.

However, Heraeus analysts cautioned that “tariffs on Russian metal may not change market balances, but could redirect global trade flows, increasing price volatility.”

According to Trade Data Monitor, Russia and South Africa are the main suppliers of palladium to the US, while China ranks second after the US as the largest buyer of Russian metal.

US imports of Russian palladium rose 42% year-on-year to over 500,000 troy ounces between January and May, according to Heraeus.

Palladium and PGMs are widely used in gasoline vehicle catalytic converters, and have so far avoided both US sanctions on Russian firms over the Ukraine war and any import tariffs announced by President Donald Trump.

Separately, according to CME’s FedWatch tool, markets currently see an 86% probability that the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points in September.

Meanwhile, the dollar index fell 0.3% to 97.9 points by 16:02 GMT, after hitting a high of 98.2 and a low of 97.8.

On the trading side, December palladium futures rose 2% to 1,125.5 dollars an ounce at 16:02 GMT.

Bitcoin traded higher on Thursday after touching a seven-week low earlier in the week, as investors balanced growing expectations of a US rate cut next month against uncertainty following President Donald Trump’s attempt to oust a Federal Reserve board member.

As of 02:04 a.m. Eastern Time (06:04 GMT), the world’s largest cryptocurrency rose 1.7% to 112,869.5 dollars.

The token had dropped below 109,000 dollars earlier this week to its lowest in seven weeks, but has rebounded slightly over the past two sessions. Still, Bitcoin remains more than 10% below its August record high above 124,000 dollars.

Rate cut bets in focus amid Fed independence concerns

Trump announced Tuesday that he had dismissed Fed governor Lisa Cook immediately over alleged mortgage fraud, accusing her of providing misleading information about property ownership in 2021 loan documents.

The claims were referred to the Justice Department by the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), but Cook denied them, saying her dismissal was illegal.

Her lawyer said he planned to sue the administration, arguing that the removal lacked legal grounds and violated the Federal Reserve Act.

In markets, attention shifted back to growing bets on a rate cut next month, with traders pricing in about an 85% probability of a 25-basis-point reduction in September.

Investors are also awaiting Friday’s release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index—the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge—which will play a key role in shaping expectations for monetary easing.

Canary Capital files for ETF tied to Trump digital token

Canary Capital has filed an application with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to launch an exchange-traded fund (ETF) tracking the performance of the $TRUMP meme coin, a digital asset linked to US President Donald Trump.

The proposed fund aims to provide a regulated vehicle for investors to gain exposure to the token, which was launched in January 2025 and has gained significant traction across social media platforms.

However, the filing noted that approval remains uncertain due to the lack of a futures market for the $TRUMP coin—a prerequisite for such products under current SEC rules.

Oil prices fell on Thursday after gains in the previous session, pressured by expectations of weaker US fuel demand as the summer driving season draws to a close, along with the resumption of Russian supplies to Hungary and Slovakia via the Druzhba pipeline.

Crude had risen on Wednesday after official data showed US inventories fell by 2.4 million barrels in the week ending August 22, compared with analysts’ expectations in a Reuters poll for a 1.9 million barrel drop, a sign of strong demand.

However, market participants noted that the upcoming US Labor Day holiday next week marks the unofficial end of the summer driving season, signaling a decline in gasoline demand.

Brent crude futures fell 28 cents, or 0.4%, to 67.77 dollars a barrel at 10:33 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures slipped 21 cents, or 0.3%, to 63.94 dollars.

John Evans of oil brokerage PVM said: “The US bank holiday this week marks the end of the driving season, and gasoline has hardly been the cure-all for demand. Any short-term reasons for optimism on oil prices are fading,” pointing to the resumption of Druzhba flows.

Hungarian oil company MOL and Slovakia’s economy minister said Thursday that Russian crude supplies to Hungary and Slovakia via the Druzhba pipeline had resumed after being disrupted by a Ukrainian attack inside Russia last week.

Traders are also watching how New Delhi responds to Washington’s pressure to halt Russian oil purchases, after US President Donald Trump doubled tariffs on Indian imports to 50% on Wednesday.

Tony Sycamore, analyst at IG Markets, said: “India is expected to continue buying Russian crude at least in the near term, which may limit the impact of the new tariffs on global supply.”

Developments in the Russia-Ukraine conflict offered some support to prices, as both Moscow and Kyiv intensified attacks on each other’s energy infrastructure.

Russia launched a massive drone strike on energy and gas transport facilities across six Ukrainian regions late Tuesday into Wednesday, cutting power to more than 100,000 people, according to Ukrainian officials.

The US dollar was little changed on Thursday as traders increased bets on a Federal Reserve rate cut next month, after New York Fed President John Williams suggested that a reduction was possible.

The greenback came under renewed pressure from President Donald Trump’s escalating push to exert greater influence over monetary policy decisions, amid his attempts to remove Fed board member Lisa Cook and replace her with an ally.

The dollar held steady against the euro, even after France’s prime minister unexpectedly announced on Monday a confidence vote next month that could bring down his fragile government.

Williams told CNBC on Wednesday that interest rates were likely to come down at some point, but policymakers needed to watch incoming data to determine whether a cut would be appropriate at the September 16–17 meeting.

Among the key releases due before that meeting are Friday’s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index—the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge—followed by the monthly jobs report a week later.

Markets are currently pricing an 89% chance of a 25-basis-point cut next month, with cumulative easing of 55 basis points by year-end already factored in, according to LSEG data.

This has pushed two-year Treasury yields—sensitive to monetary policy expectations—to their lowest since May 1, adding to pressure on the dollar.

Trump’s efforts to install carefully chosen dovish candidates on the Fed’s decision-making committee also weighed on short-term yields, though his move against Cook could spark a protracted legal battle after she filed a lawsuit to remain in her post.

Chris Turner, head of global markets at ING, said: “Short-dated US yields remain close to recent lows, and most analysts would conclude that this week’s attempt by President Trump to remove Lisa Cook has been a negative factor for the dollar.”

The dollar index, which measures the greenback against six major peers, rose 0.1% to 98.225 after two straight days of declines.

The euro was little changed, down 0.07% at 1.1630 dollars.

Against the yen, the dollar slipped 0.03% to 147.34.

In another development, Japan’s chief trade negotiator Ryusei Akazawa canceled a trip to Washington at the last minute on Thursday, delaying the announcement of details of a 550 billion dollar Japanese investment pledge in the US tied to a tariff agreement.

A government spokesman said the decision came after talks with the US side revealed “administrative-level” issues that required further discussion.

The dollar also fell to its lowest level against the offshore Chinese yuan since November, down 0.2% at 7.1360 in offshore trade.