Palladium prices rose on Friday amid positive expectations for continued gains in the industrial metal and stronger investment inflows.

UBS said in a note to clients on Friday that it had raised its palladium price forecast by $300 per ounce to $1,800, citing a sharp increase in investment flows into the metal.

Analyst Giovanni Staunovo said UBS made the revision “driven by the strength of investment demand in recent months,” adding that the relatively small size of the palladium market “often leads to sharp price swings.”

The bank explained that the recent price momentum was not driven by traditional industrial uses, but rather by investor positioning in anticipation of lower US interest rates, a weaker dollar, and rising geopolitical uncertainty.

Staunovo noted that “if investment demand remains strong, prices could rise further,” but warned that “in the absence of investment demand, we see the market as largely balanced,” which explains UBS’s preference for exposure to gold.

Demand for palladium has shifted in recent years after its use in automotive catalytic converters peaked in 2019, the same year prices surged above platinum, triggering substitution away from the metal.

The spread of electric vehicles, which do not use catalytic converters, has also weighed on palladium demand.

However, the bank said palladium has risen alongside platinum and silver since mid-2025, and with palladium now “significantly cheaper than platinum,” UBS expects catalytic converter manufacturers to “switch back to using it… in due course.”

Investment activity in palladium has picked up notably, with UBS pointing to rising exchange-traded fund holdings since mid-2025, alongside a sharp increase in speculative positions in the futures market, after being net short for most of last year.

China may also be supportive of demand. Staunovo said the launch of yuan-denominated platinum futures in Guangzhou “is likely to have supported demand for palladium,” as part of broader trading activity across the platinum group metals.

In trading, March palladium futures jumped 4.1% to $2,007 per ounce by 14:45 GMT.

Bitcoin fell on Friday, wrapping up a weak week, as easing tensions between the United States and Greenland, along with a large purchase by Strategy, failed to revive investor appetite for cryptocurrencies.

Risk appetite during the Asian trading session remained limited, weighed down by a meeting of the Bank of Japan, as well as a warning from US President Donald Trump about the possibility of military action against Iran.

By contrast, safe-haven assets such as gold and other precious metals surged to record highs, driven by increased demand for physical assets, while Bitcoin significantly lagged the performance of the yellow metal.

The world’s largest cryptocurrency slipped 0.5% to $89,517.3 by 00:53 US Eastern Time (05:53 GMT).

Bitcoin heads for a 5% weekly loss, ignoring positive signals

Although Bitcoin posted some gains after President Trump softened his tone on Greenland earlier this week, the cryptocurrency quickly reversed course and moved back toward one-month lows.

Bitcoin was on track to record a weekly loss of around 5%, receiving little support from an announcement by Strategy Inc, the largest institutional holder of Bitcoin, that it had purchased $2.1 billion worth of the cryptocurrency.

In recent months, Strategy has also emerged as a source of concern for Bitcoin markets, as investors have questioned the long-term viability of the company’s strategy of holding Bitcoin on its balance sheet, particularly amid the cryptocurrency’s persistently weak price performance.

Delays to a long-awaited bill aimed at regulating the cryptocurrency market also weighed on Bitcoin and broader crypto prices, after Coinbase Global Inc, the largest US-based cryptocurrency exchange, opposed the bill in its current form.

Retail investor appetite for Bitcoin remained largely subdued, especially as technology stocks continued to outperform, driven by enthusiasm around artificial intelligence, which has absorbed the bulk of capital inflows.

The Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index, which measures the gap between Bitcoin prices in the United States and the global average, showed that the cryptocurrency has been trading at a near-constant discount in the US market since mid-December. This signals that retail investor sentiment in the world’s largest crypto market remains broadly weak.

Cryptocurrency prices today: altcoins slide, set for steep weekly losses

Other cryptocurrencies declined alongside Bitcoin and were heading for significantly larger losses over the week.

Ether, the world’s second-largest cryptocurrency, fell 2.4% to $2,946.35, and was on track for a weekly loss of about 11.2%.

XRP dropped 1.5%, while BNB edged down 0.1%, with both tokens set to post weekly losses of between 6% and 8%.

Oil prices rose again on Friday after US President Donald Trump renewed his threats against Iran, stoking fears of potential military action that could disrupt crude supplies, while production disruptions in Kazakhstan continued.

Brent crude futures for March delivery climbed 76 cents, or 1.2%, to $64.82 a barrel by 10:26 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate crude rose 75 cents, or 1.3%, to $60.11 a barrel.

Both benchmark contracts were on track to post weekly gains of about 1.1%.

Prices had also risen earlier in the week on the back of Trump’s moves related to Greenland, but fell by around 2% on Thursday after he walked back threats to impose tariffs on Europe and ruled out military action.

Trump said on Thursday that Denmark, NATO, and the United States had reached an agreement granting “full access” to Greenland.

However, he also said the United States had a “fleet” heading toward Iran, expressing hope that it would not have to be used, while renewing warnings to Tehran against killing protesters or restarting its nuclear program.

A US official said warships, including an aircraft carrier and guided-missile destroyers, are set to arrive in the Middle East in the coming days. The United States carried out strikes against Iran in June last year.

Iran is a major supplier of oil to China, the world’s second-largest oil consumer.

Separately, Chevron said oil production at the giant Tengiz field in Kazakhstan, one of the world’s largest oil fields, has not yet resumed. Operator Tengizchevroil, led by Chevron, announced on Monday that production had been halted following a fire.

The US dollar was steady against most major currencies in Friday’s trading, moving within a narrow range and heading toward its largest weekly loss since June.

Dollar selling momentum

More broadly, shifts in the geopolitical landscape weighed on market sentiment this week after US President Donald Trump said he had secured US access to Greenland as part of an agreement with the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, while at the same time backing away from threats to impose tariffs on Europe and ruling out the use of force to seize the self-governing Danish territory.

The dollar bore the brunt of investor anxiety in currency markets after US assets came under heavy pressure earlier in the week amid escalating geopolitical tensions, reviving talk of a “sell America” strategy that first emerged following the sweeping tariffs Trump announced on “Liberation Day” in April.

The dollar index, which measures the US currency against six major peers, stood at 98.31 in the latest trading, little changed on the day. Even so, the index was on track for a weekly decline of about 1%, its largest since June.

The euro slipped about 0.1% to $1.1740, but was heading for a weekly gain of 1.4%, while sterling was steady at $1.35. Data released on Friday showed UK retail sales rose unexpectedly in December, but the figures had little impact on the pound.

Thierry Wizman, global FX and rates strategist at Macquarie Group, said the Greenland agreement may resolve the immediate issue around tariffs and invasion, but it does not address the deeper problem of what appears to be a growing rift between allies.

“This is not a good situation if you want to preserve the status of the US dollar as a global reserve currency,” he added.

The Japanese yen

The Japanese yen strengthened abruptly on Friday, prompting market speculation that Japanese authorities may have conducted what is known as a “rate check,” a step that often precedes intervention in the foreign exchange market, as the dollar headed for its steepest weekly decline since June amid geopolitical tensions that unsettled investors.

In the latest trading, the yen edged higher to 158.05 per dollar.

The yen had weakened to around 159.2 per dollar, close to an 18-month low, during a press conference by Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda following the central bank’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged, before suddenly rebounding to 157.3 per dollar.

Traders are closely watching the risk of Tokyo stepping in to curb yen weakness, although the prevailing view in the market is that authorities did not intervene directly, but instead carried out exchange rate checks with banks.

Jonas Goltermann, deputy chief markets economist at Capital Economics, said: “I do not think this was direct intervention, because it does not match the pattern we have seen during past interventions. Typically, we would see a very sharp downward move in dollar/yen.”

Goltermann also pointed to the possibility that authorities carried out a so-called exchange rate check.

An exchange rate check refers to authorities asking banks about the rate at which they could sell yen, a tool used by Japanese officials to signal readiness to enter the market.

The yen has been under sustained pressure since Sanae Takaichi took office as Japan’s prime minister in October, falling more than 4% amid fiscal concerns and remaining near levels that have triggered verbal warnings and fears of official intervention.

A sharp selloff in the bond market earlier this week highlighted investor unease over Japan’s fiscal outlook after Takaichi called for early elections in February and pledged tax cuts, pushing Japanese government bond yields to record highs. Although yields have partially retraced since then, investor nerves remain frayed.