Palladium prices fell sharply on Thursday, despite a weaker U.S. dollar against most major currencies, as investors assessed the recently announced trade truce between the United States and China.

According to Capital.com, palladium prices have surged about 26% since the beginning of October to around $1,500 per ounce. This rally has coincided with gains in the platinum market and a broader easing in global financial conditions.

Bets on potential U.S. interest rate cuts and a softer dollar have further supported palladium’s rise, as part of the broader “gold + liquidity wave” driving precious metals higher.

Palladium is used almost exclusively in catalytic converters for gasoline engines, meaning U.S. automakers and electronics manufacturers could face significant cost volatility.

Technical analysis from Monex shows a resistance zone between $1,500 and $1,520 per ounce, with expectations that the overall trend remains upward but with volatile trading in the near term.

Analysts at CPM Group said the recent strength in palladium is “closely linked to platinum’s performance,” while warning that a weakening U.S. labor market and persistent inflation could hinder demand growth.

Despite the announcement of a trade truce between Washington and Beijing, comments from U.S. officials suggest tensions remain unresolved. The U.S. Treasury Secretary described China as an “unreliable trading partner,” while President Donald Trump stated that his administration would not allow exports of advanced Nvidia chips to China or other countries.

Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar index fell 0.3% to 99.8 points by 15:48 GMT, after reaching an intraday high of 100.1 and a low of 99.7.

At the same time, December palladium futures dropped 3.7% to $1,397 per ounce.

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) rose again above the $100,000 mark, supported by upbeat employment data that boosted market sentiment, even as the cryptocurrency continues to trade below its record highs.

The token gained 1.5% to $103,195 on Thursday morning, recovering from a sharp early-week decline. However, prices remain well below the all-time high of $126,000 reached in early October.

In a note released Thursday, analysts at Deutsche Bank said that “risk-on sentiment” returned to the markets over the past day, as the S&P 500 index climbed 0.4% on Wednesday, rebounding from the previous session’s sell-off.

The bank added that “stronger-than-expected data, along with growing expectations that the U.S. government shutdown could soon end, helped improve investor optimism over the short-term outlook,” which in turn stabilized bitcoin after recent losses.

An ADP report showed that the U.S. private sector added 42,000 jobs in October — its first monthly increase since July.

Bitcoin had fallen earlier in the week amid investor concerns over the U.S. government shutdown and slowing economic growth.

Sean Farrell, head of digital asset strategy at Fundstrat, said Monday that selling pressure from “whales” — large bitcoin holders — has increased in recent weeks, noting that billions of dollars worth of bitcoin were recently moved from private wallets to exchanges in preparation for liquidation.

Simon Peters, crypto market analyst at eToro, commented Wednesday that bitcoin’s latest pullback followed the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, where Fed Chair Jerome Powell dampened expectations for a December rate cut.

The U.S. Federal Reserve had lowered interest rates last week by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75%–4.00%, but Powell said during the post-meeting press conference that another reduction in December “is far from certain,” lowering market hopes for additional easing next month.

Peters added that roughly $915 million in leveraged bitcoin positions have been liquidated since early November, contributing to the recent decline.

“While the pullback may unsettle some investors, this level of volatility is not unusual,” he said, noting that bitcoin has previously seen drops of over 30%, such as the fall between January and April this year when prices plunged from $109,000 to $74,500 before surging 70% to a record high of $126,300.

Peters concluded that “bitcoin remains in a long-term uptrend, forming higher highs and higher lows,” adding that short-term catalysts — such as renewed expectations for rate cuts or continued inflows into spot bitcoin ETFs — could quickly trigger a sharp recovery.

Oil prices rose slightly on Thursday, supported by easing concerns over a potential global supply glut, as the impact of sanctions on Russian energy companies began to emerge.

After ending the previous session at a two-week low, Brent crude futures climbed 35 cents, or 0.6%, to $63.87 a barrel by 11:20 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gained 39 cents, or 0.7%, to $59.99 a barrel.

Analysts said the latest sanctions imposed two weeks ago on Russia’s largest oil firms have sparked some worries about possible supply disruptions, despite ongoing increases in production from OPEC and its allies.

Reuters reported this week that Russian oil giant Lukoil is facing challenges in its overseas operations due to these restrictions.

Jorge Montepeque of Onyx Capital Group said: “There’s a mild effect on prices from the sanctions, but it’s not substantial yet. The numbers suggest it should be stronger, but the market still needs to be convinced that a real impact will materialize.”

October decline and production freeze ease oversupply fears

Global oil prices fell for a third consecutive month in October amid persistent concerns of an oversupplied market, as OPEC and its partners continued to increase output alongside steady production growth from non-OPEC producers.

According to Haitong Securities, OPEC+’s broader plan to halt additional production hikes during the first quarter of next year helped calm fears of a surplus.

Weak global demand remains the central concern

Nevertheless, weak global demand for crude remains a key issue.

J.P. Morgan estimates that global oil demand rose by 850,000 barrels per day between the start of the year and November 4 — slightly below earlier expectations of 900,000 barrels per day.

“The high-frequency indicators show that U.S. oil consumption remains soft,” the bank said, citing reduced travel activity and weaker container shipping volumes.

In the previous session, prices declined after data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration revealed that crude inventories rose by 5.2 million barrels to 421.2 million barrels last week.

Further downside pressure expected

Capital Economics noted in a research report: “We expect downward pressure on oil prices to persist, supporting our conservative forecast of $60 a barrel by the end of 2025 and $50 a barrel by the end of 2026.”

Saudi Arabia cuts oil prices to Asia

Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia — the world’s largest crude exporter — sharply reduced its official selling prices to Asia for December, responding to a market awash with supply as OPEC+ production continues to increase.

The Bank of England announced its interest rate decision on Thursday at the conclusion of its November 6 meeting, keeping rates unchanged at 4.00% — the lowest level since February 2023 — in line with market expectations, marking the second consecutive meeting without a change.

•This statement is considered “positive” for the British pound.