Palladium prices declined on Tuesday as markets tracked developments in trade talks between the United States and China, while also awaiting the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting later this week.

According to Capital.com, palladium has surged around 26% since the start of October to nearly $1,500 per ounce, a rally that has coincided with gains in the platinum market and looser global financial conditions.

Bets on lower US interest rates and a weaker dollar have further fueled the metal’s rise as part of what analysts describe as the ongoing “gold + liquidity wave” that has lifted precious metals broadly.

Palladium is used almost exclusively in catalytic converters for gasoline engines, meaning US automakers and electronics manufacturers could face heightened cost volatility.

Technical analysis from Monex identifies a resistance zone between $1,500 and $1,520 per ounce, with expectations that the overall trend will remain upward but volatile in the near term.

Analysts at CPM Group noted that palladium’s recent strength is “closely tied to platinum’s performance,” while cautioning that persistent inflation and a softening US labor market could pose headwinds to demand growth.

Meanwhile, the US dollar index edged up less than 0.1% to 98.7 by 15:18 GMT, hitting a session high of 98.9 and a low of 98.5.

As for trading, December palladium futures fell 0.8% to $1,420.5 per ounce at 15:19 GMT.

Bitcoin edged lower on Tuesday, pausing its recent rebound amid growing caution ahead of high-level talks between the United States and China and the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting later this week.

The world’s largest cryptocurrency slipped 1.6% to $113,760.2 by 1:47 a.m. Eastern Time (05:47 GMT), after touching $116,000 on Monday in a bout of profit-taking following its recent rally.

Markets Focused on Rate Cuts and Trump–Xi Talks

Traders turned cautious ahead of Tuesday’s Fed meeting, with widespread expectations for at least a 25-basis-point rate cut on Wednesday.

Bets on easier monetary policy strengthened after last week’s weaker-than-expected consumer inflation data showed price pressures remain contained. Signs of a cooling labor market also fueled expectations for further rate reductions in the coming months — a scenario seen as broadly supportive for cryptocurrencies.

Investors are also watching the upcoming meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, expected to build on the recently agreed trade framework between Washington and Beijing aimed at easing long-standing tensions between the world’s two largest economies.

Expectations for lower interest rates and hopes of a US-China trade deal have been key drivers of the crypto market’s recent rally, helping Bitcoin break out of the narrow $100,000–$110,000 trading range that dominated most of October.

Metaplanet Announces $500 Million Share Buyback

Japan’s Metaplanet Inc — a former hotel operator turned Bitcoin-holding company — said Tuesday it will repurchase up to 13.13% of its outstanding shares, valued at around ¥75 billion ($500 million).

The company’s stock jumped more than 6% on the Tokyo exchange after the announcement, extending its recovery from a six-month low.

Metaplanet said the buyback will be financed through a $500 million credit facility.

The firm is the world’s fourth-largest corporate Bitcoin holder, owning 30,823 BTC in its reserves, and has expanded its holdings over the past year through several capital raises.

However, mounting skepticism over the long-term benefits of keeping Bitcoin on balance sheets has weighed on the company’s stock in recent months, pushing its market value below the worth of its BTC reserves earlier in October.

Crypto Market Overview: Ethereum and Altcoins Slide

Cryptocurrencies broadly followed Bitcoin lower, with Ethereum (Ether) — the world’s second-largest digital asset — leading losses.

Ether dropped 3.9% to $4,072 after ETHZilla Treasury announced it sold about $40 million worth of Ether from its reserves to fund a share-buyback program.

XRP slipped 1.1%, BNB lost 2.6%, while Cardano and Solana fell between 2.5% and 4%. Dogecoin slid 4.6%, whereas the Trump-themed token $TRUMP jumped 8.5%.

Oil prices fell by 2% on Tuesday, marking a third consecutive session of losses, as investors assessed the impact of US sanctions on Russia’s two largest oil producers alongside potential OPEC+ plans to raise output.

Brent crude futures dropped by $1.29, or 2%, to $64.33 a barrel at 08:56 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures declined by $1.20, or 2%, to $60.11 a barrel.

ANZ Group said in a morning note that “traders are assessing progress in US-China trade talks, as well as the broader outlook for global supply.”

The decline followed last week’s sharp rally — the biggest weekly gain since June — after US President Donald Trump imposed sanctions on Russia for the first time in his second term, targeting oil giants Lukoil and Rosneft.

Investors continue to weigh the effectiveness of those sanctions.

Giovanni Staunovo, commodities analyst at UBS, said: “The oil market is still debating whether the latest sanctions will materially impact Russian crude exports, while traders have largely priced out last week’s supply risk premium.”

International Energy Agency (IEA) Executive Director Fatih Birol said Tuesday that the impact of sanctions on oil-exporting countries will likely remain limited due to spare capacity in the global market.

Following the US sanctions, Lukoil — Russia’s second-largest oil producer — announced on Monday that it would sell its international assets, marking the most significant step yet by a Russian company in response to Western restrictions imposed since the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

At the same time, two sources told Reuters that Indian refiners have not submitted any new requests for Russian crude purchases since the sanctions were announced, as they await government guidance and clarification from suppliers.

OPEC+ Considering a December Output Increase

Four sources told Reuters that the OPEC+ alliance — which includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its partners led by Russia — is leaning toward another small production hike in December.

The group has been gradually unwinding years of output cuts aimed at supporting prices, after beginning to restore production in April.

Trade Deal Expectations Between Washington and Beijing

Meanwhile, investors are monitoring prospects for a potential trade agreement between the United States and China, the world’s two largest oil consumers, ahead of the upcoming meeting between President Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping on Thursday in South Korea.

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said in a phone call with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Monday that Beijing hopes Washington will “meet it halfway” in preparing for “high-level engagements” between the two nations.

The US dollar fell on Tuesday as traders prepared for a series of central bank meetings expected to deliver an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, while investors also focused on President Donald Trump’s Asia tour amid hopes for a trade deal with China.

The Japanese yen rose more than 0.6% to 151.855 per dollar ahead of this week’s Bank of Japan meeting, where policymakers are expected to keep rates unchanged. Markets, however, will be watching closely for signals on the timing of the next rate hike.

Yen gains were supported by comments from US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who called for “disciplined monetary policy” after meeting his Japanese counterpart, Satsuki Katayama — the latest in a series of remarks criticizing the Bank of Japan’s slow pace of tightening.

In Tokyo, Trump met Japan’s new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, praising her pledge to accelerate military capacity-building and signing new agreements on trade and rare-earth minerals.

Hopes for a Trade Deal with China

Although early signs of easing tensions between the world’s two largest economies spurred a wave of risk-taking on Monday, investors remain cautious that any potential deal may fall short of expectations.

The world’s attention now turns to Thursday’s meeting between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in South Korea.

Speaking aboard Air Force One before landing in Tokyo, Trump said, “I have great respect for President Xi, and I believe we’ll come out with an agreement.”

Chinese officials, meanwhile, have maintained a reserved tone and offered no clear indication of potential outcomes from the talks.

Vasu Menon, Executive Director of Investment Strategy at OCBC Bank, said a “perfect solution or even a comprehensive settlement” is unlikely, suggesting unresolved issues could be postponed.

“When two global economic powers led by strong leaders try to reach an agreement, the process is never smooth,” Menon added. Still, he noted that any tangible progress could be enough to reassure markets and sustain the stock rally.

Rate Cut Expectations Pressure the Dollar

The dollar’s decline was also driven by expectations of a 25-basis-point rate cut by the Federal Reserve. The euro rose to a one-week high at 1.1668 dollars, while the British pound gained 0.25% to 1.3368 dollars.

The US Dollar Index, which measures the greenback’s performance against six major peers, slipped 0.19% to 98.58 after a 0.15% drop in the previous session.

Markets Await the Fed Meeting

While a rate cut is almost certain, investors will focus on whether the Fed signals an end to its quantitative tightening program. Markets will also watch Chair Jerome Powell’s comments for clues about future cuts, especially amid the ongoing US government shutdown that continues to delay economic data releases.

Traders also expect another rate reduction in December.

David Merkel, Chief Economist at Goldman Sachs, said: “We don’t expect explicit guidance on the December meeting, but Powell is likely to reference the September projections that pointed to a third rate cut by then.”

The Fed lowered rates by 25 basis points last month.

Other Central Banks Stay Cautious

In Europe, the European Central Bank is expected to leave interest rates unchanged again on Thursday, while traders remain divided on whether monetary easing could resume next year.

In the Asia-Pacific region, the Australian dollar — often viewed as a proxy for risk appetite — rose 0.11% to 0.6563 US dollars, a two-week high, while the New Zealand dollar edged slightly higher to 0.5782.