Palladium prices fell on Tuesday as markets closely watched the talks to be held later this week between the Presidents of the United States and Russia.

US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin will meet in direct talks on Friday in the US state of Alaska to discuss ending the war in Ukraine.

UBS this week raised its palladium price forecasts by $100 per ounce across all timeframes, citing expectations of lower output from Canadian mines.

However, the banking group still maintains a bearish outlook on the metal due to weak demand from the automotive sector.

UBS said in a note to clients: “After platinum, palladium is the second-best performing precious metal this year, having risen by 37%.” It added that “concerns about supply disruptions and short covering activity may have contributed to the rise in the metal’s price.”

Bank analysts highlighted a rally driven by short covering in the futures markets, as non-commercial short positions fell from 1.9 million ounces in April to 1.1 million ounces, while long positions rose slightly to more than 0.9 million ounces.

They explained: “Positions remain in a slightly net short position, far from the extreme short level that approached 1.1 million ounces.”

The bank also pointed out that geopolitical risks and supply factors are contributing to increased price volatility, noting that “US President Donald Trump threatened to impose secondary tariffs on buyers of goods coming from Russia,” the world’s largest producer of palladium.

Concerns have also grown about potential tariffs on South Africa, the second-largest producer, according to the bank.

At the same time, analysts noted that Implats Canada announced plans to halt production at the Lac des Iles mine by May 2026, which currently supplies the market with about 0.2–0.25 million ounces annually.

Despite these supply concerns, UBS warned that palladium remains a high-risk asset, saying: “Only investors with a high risk tolerance should consider trading palladium, given its low trading volume and small market size.”

The group expects challenges to persist, noting that “more than 80% of demand for palladium comes from its use in gasoline-powered vehicles,” while US auto production remains under pressure from tariffs.

On the other hand, the US dollar index fell by 0.5% to 98.05 points at 16:35 GMT, after recording a high of 98.6 points and a low of 98.1 points.

In trading, palladium futures for September delivery fell by 1.6% to $1,140.5 per ounce at 16:35 GMT.

Bitcoin prices fell on Tuesday, giving up most of the gains made over the weekend as risk appetite cooled amid anticipation of key US inflation data, largely erasing optimism over prospects for more favorable cryptocurrency regulation in the United States.

Buying by Metaplanet, the sixth-largest institutional holder of the cryptocurrency, failed to spur prices, while other alternative coins also halted their rallies after strong weekend gains.

Bitcoin dropped 2.8% to $118,630.4 by 1:31 a.m. ET (05:31 GMT).

Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies retreat as CPI data takes center stage

The US annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in at 2.7%, compared with economists’ estimates of 2.8%. The Core CPI, which excludes highly volatile sectors such as energy and food, registered 3.1%, beating forecasts by 0.1 percentage point.

Analysts see the data as a positive signal for crypto market bulls, as it may prompt the US Federal Reserve to cut interest rates at its upcoming September Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

The Fed targets a healthy inflation rate of around 2%, and the latest figures have been edging closer to that level in recent months.

It is worth noting that CPI figures are not the only factor the Fed considers when deciding on a possible rate cut; the latest US jobs report showed the economy weaker than expected, increasing the likelihood of lowering the benchmark rate.

Indeed, Bitcoin (BTC) reacted positively to the CPI release, briefly climbing above $119,000, while Ethereum (ETH) performed even better, rising to $4,350.

Metaplanet buys an additional 518 Bitcoin

Metaplanet Inc (Tokyo Stock Exchange: 3350) announced on Tuesday the purchase of 518 additional Bitcoin, bringing the Japanese hospitality company-turned-crypto investment treasury’s total holdings to 118,113 BTC.

The deal was valued at $61.4 million, at an average price of $118,519 per coin. The latest acquisition follows Metaplanet’s earlier announcement of a plan to raise $3.7 billion through a share issuance, with the primary goal of purchasing more Bitcoin.

The company now holds approximately $1.85 billion worth of Bitcoin, after accelerating its buying spree over the past year.

This strategy closely mirrors that of Michael Saylor’s MicroStrategy, which has relied on several large stock offerings to fund its Bitcoin purchases. MicroStrategy remains the largest institutional holder of the cryptocurrency globally, reaping substantial gains in both valuation and holdings as Bitcoin prices surged over the past year.

Whale wallets hit record high as price momentum accelerates

Data from Bitcoin Magazine Pro showed that around 19,000 individual wallet addresses now hold at least 100 Bitcoin, marking a new record.

This milestone indicates that large holders – known as “whales” – continue to build their positions even with Bitcoin trading near all-time highs. Historically, an increase in whale wallet counts has been linked to greater confidence in long-term price growth and a willingness to hold through market volatility.

This accumulation extends a trend that began in early 2024, when the number of addresses holding over 100 Bitcoin was around 16,000, surpassing 18,500 by mid-2025 before breaking the 19,000 mark this month.

Analysts note that such accumulation often precedes “supply squeeze” conditions in the market, as the number of actively traded coins diminishes. While retail traders typically chase short-term gains, whales tend to buy during dips and hold through market cycles – a strategy that has proven effective in past bull runs.

With Bitcoin’s price rising alongside greater concentration of holdings among whales, the market may be on the verge of entering a new phase of supply scarcity and heightened competition for coins.

Oil prices were largely steady on Tuesday after the US and China extended a pause on higher tariffs, easing fears that an escalation of their trade war would hurt oil consumption.

Brent crude futures fell 2 cents to $66.61 a barrel by 09:04 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate crude futures slipped 10 cents, or 0.2%, to $63.86.

US President Donald Trump extended the tariff truce with China until November 10, preventing triple-digit tariffs on Chinese goods as American retailers prepare for the critical year-end holiday season.

The move boosted hopes for an agreement between the world’s two largest economies, avoiding an effective trade ban. Tariffs pose a risk to global economic growth, which could reduce fuel demand and pressure oil prices lower.

Oil also found support from fresh signs of weakness in the US labor market, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in September, according to Priyanka Sachdeva, senior market analyst at brokerage Phillip Nova.

Investors are also awaiting US inflation data due later today, which could shape the Fed’s rate-setting path. Interest rate cuts typically stimulate economic activity and boost oil demand.

Potential downside risks for the oil market include the upcoming meeting between Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska on Friday to discuss ending the war in Ukraine.

The meeting comes as the US steps up pressure on Russia, threatening tougher sanctions on buyers of Russian oil such as China and India if no peace deal is reached.

Trump had set a deadline of last Friday for Russia to agree to peace in Ukraine or face secondary sanctions on its oil buyers, while also pressing India and China to reduce purchases of Russian crude.

In a note, Commerzbank said: “If Friday’s meeting results in progress toward a ceasefire or even a peace deal in Ukraine, Trump may suspend the secondary tariffs imposed on India last week before they take effect in two weeks. If not, we could see harsher sanctions on other buyers of Russian oil, such as China.”

Gold prices rose in the European market on Tuesday in an attempt to recoup some of the losses from the previous session, as the market absorbed US President Donald Trump’s decision not to impose tariffs on imported gold bullion.

These gains were limited, however, by the continued rise of the US dollar in the foreign exchange market ahead of the release of key US inflation data, which is expected to provide fresh pricing for the likelihood of US interest rate cuts later this year.

Price Overview

• Gold prices today: Gold rose by about 0.5% to $3,358.23, from the opening level of $3,342.55, and recorded a low of $3,342.32.

• At Monday’s settlement, gold prices lost 1.6%, marking the first decline in three weeks, as correction and profit-taking accelerated from the two-week high of $3,409.10 per ounce.

• Beyond profit-taking, gold recorded its biggest daily loss since May 14, pressured by the rise in the dollar and the denial of tariffs on bullion.

Tariffs on Gold Bullion

President Donald Trump stated on Monday that no tariffs would be imposed on imported gold bullion, easing market tensions.

US gold futures for December delivery hit an all-time high late last week after the Financial Times reported that the United States had imposed tariffs on one-kilogram gold imports, citing a letter from US Customs and Border Protection.

US Dollar

The US Dollar Index rose on Tuesday by less than 0.1%, maintaining gains for the third consecutive day, reflecting continued strength in the US currency against a basket of global currencies.

President Trump extended the suspension of tariffs on goods and products imported from China for an additional 90 days, until early November, in a move aimed at easing trade tensions between Washington and Beijing.

As the US and China work toward a new trade agreement, a US official told Reuters that chipmakers Nvidia and AMD had agreed to allocate 15% of their China sales revenue to the US government to secure export licenses for semiconductors.

US Interest Rates

• According to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool: the probability of a 25-basis-point US interest rate cut at the September meeting is currently priced at around 85%, with a 15% probability of rates remaining unchanged.

• The probability of a 25-basis-point cut at the October meeting is currently at 94%, with a 6% probability of no change.

US Inflation Data

To reprice the above probabilities, traders are awaiting the release later today of key US inflation data for July, which is expected to have a significant impact on the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy path.

At 13:30 GMT, the headline Consumer Price Index is expected to rise by 2.8% year-on-year in July, up from a 2.7% increase in June, while the core CPI is expected to rise by 3.0% year-on-year, compared with a 2.9% increase the previous month.

Outlook for Gold

• Kelvin Wong, market analyst for Asia-Pacific at OANDA, said: “Market participants will now definitely focus on the upcoming rate cut from the Federal Reserve, which is almost fully priced in for September.”

• Wong added: “If we start to see core CPI data coming in slightly below expectations, it could further support expectations for a rate cut, which may reduce the cost of holding gold and support higher prices.”

SPDR Fund

Gold holdings at SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, rose by about 4.58 metric tons on Monday, marking the third consecutive daily increase, bringing the total to 964.22 metric tons — the highest since September 12, 2022.