Palladium prices rose during Tuesday’s trading despite a stronger U.S. dollar against most major currencies, supported by expectations of a global supply shortage.

Sibanye-Stillwater, based in Johannesburg with operations in the U.S. and South Africa, has petitioned to impose tariffs on Russian palladium imports — a move that could further heighten price volatility. The company noted that Russian palladium is being sold below market value, particularly since the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. CEO Neal Froneman said tariffs would ensure a fairer competitive environment for the U.S. PGMs industry. A ruling on the petition is expected within 13 months.

Russia’s Norilsk Nickel (Nornickel), which controls 40% of global mined palladium, declined to comment. Sibanye-Stillwater itself booked a second consecutive annual loss last year, including a $500 million writedown on its U.S. palladium assets amid weak prices.

Spot palladium has risen 31% year-to-date, with analysts surveyed by Reuters expecting 2025 to mark the first annual gain in four years, driven by support from platinum. Still, Heraeus analysts warned that tariffs on Russian metal might not alter the supply-demand balance, but could redirect global trade flows and increase volatility.

According to Trade Data Monitor, Russia and South Africa remain the primary suppliers of palladium to the U.S., with China ranking second to the U.S. as a key buyer of Russian metal. U.S. imports of Russian palladium rose 42% year-on-year to exceed 500,000 troy ounces between January and May.

Palladium and PGMs are widely used in catalytic converters for gasoline vehicles. So far, Russian palladium has avoided U.S. sanctions tied to the Ukraine war, as well as import tariffs announced by President Donald Trump.

In a separate development, CME FedWatch data shows markets are pricing in an 86% probability that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its September meeting.

Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar index rose 0.4% to 98.1 by 15:45 GMT, touching a high of 98.6 and a low of 97.6. Futures for December palladium gained 2.5% to $1,152.5 per ounce at the same time.

Bitcoin traded near the $110,000 level in early dealings on Tuesday, amid declining spot and futures trading volumes alongside weaker on-chain activity, signaling mounting selling pressure.

Glassnode, an on-chain analytics firm, said in a report released Monday that Bitcoin’s consolidation around $110,000 is taking place as selling pressure rises across the market. The report noted that Bitcoin’s relative strength index (RSI) dropped from 37.4 to 33.6 last week, placing it in oversold territory and pointing to increasing downside pressure. Glassnode analysts also highlighted that spot trading volumes fell about 9% to $7.7 billion, reflecting weak investor participation and uncertainty in market sentiment.

Analysts added: “Falling volumes during price moves often reflect weak conviction behind the latest trend, which points to uncertainty in the market. Limited participation makes it clear that selling pressure continues to dominate.”

The report also pointed to declining open interest in futures and options last week, reflecting “a shift toward risk-averse behavior” after Bitcoin’s retreat from recent highs.

Glassnode further noted an increase in the influence of short-term holders (STH), with their supply ratio to long-term holders (LTH) rising from 17.0% to 17.7%. This signals a more volatile environment, as short-term holders tend to engage in speculative behavior and reactive decisions.

This uptick in selling pressure comes despite strong buying from corporate holders and U.S.-based exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which reversed nearly $1 billion in outflows to register $396 million in inflows last week.

By contrast, Carmelo Aleman, an analyst at CryptoQuant, said the market has not yet reached a cycle top. He explained that previous Bitcoin bull cycles often included sharp corrections before prices rallied to new highs, making the current pullback healthy. He added that institutional adoption of Bitcoin and growing interest in tokenization could drive prices higher in the coming months.

Aleman cited the network value-to-transactions ratio (NVT), which compares Bitcoin’s market capitalization to on-chain transaction volume, noting it has stayed below 50 since July 7, reflecting robust activity and strong growth potential. He also pointed out that the market value-to-realized value (MVRV) ratio has not yet reached levels typically associated with cycle tops, indicating prices “have not yet entered a blow-off stage.”

Bitcoin was trading at $110,300 in early Asian trading on Tuesday, recovering from a dip toward $107,000.

Four Factors Shaping Bitcoin’s Path in September

Bitcoin closed August with a red monthly candle, its first after four straight months of gains. September carries particular significance as it marks the end of the third quarter and provides key price signals for analysts on expectations for the rest of the year. What are the main factors likely to shape Bitcoin’s trajectory this month?

1. ETF flows could repeat the pattern seen at the start of the year

Analyst Yonsei_dent noted that U.S. Bitcoin ETF flows are closely tied to price action, observing that flows in the past two months resemble early 2025 dynamics. Despite price weakness in January–February 2025, ETF holdings stayed relatively stable, but once they dropped sharply, prices fell in tandem.

The analyst warned that a similar scenario could unfold in September: “We see a similar structure forming in July–August. Bitcoin retreated after setting a new all-time high, but ETF holdings have remained steady — so far. If deeper outflows begin, Bitcoin may face further downside pressure.”

According to SoSoValue, U.S. Bitcoin ETFs posted net outflows of over $126 million on August 29, ending a four-day positive streak and signaling weakening capital inflows.

2. Heavy whale selling versus Ethereum (ETH) accumulation

A second factor is the shifting behavior of major holders. On-chain data showed them selling large amounts of Bitcoin in exchange for Ethereum. Lookonchain reported that one major Bitcoin OG sold 4,000 BTC ($435 million) and bought 96,859 ETH ($433 million) on the last day of August. On September 1, the same investor sold 2,000 BTC ($215 million) and purchased 48,942 ETH ($215 million). In total, this address has accumulated 886,371 ETH worth $4.07 billion.

This market trend, where whales rotate from BTC into ETH, signals a shift in investment outlook and may affect sentiment while prompting similar behavior among retail investors.

3. U.S. demand via the Coinbase Premium Index

This index measures the price gap between the U.S. market (Coinbase) and the global market (Binance). When positive, it reflects stronger U.S. investor demand. The index has dropped from 100 to 11.6 at the start of September. While still in positive territory, the decline points to weaker U.S. buying momentum.

Researchers at XWIN Research Japan said Bitcoin is holding above $100,000 with strong institutional support and a steadily rising long-term valuation floor, viewing current corrections not as weakness but as accumulation opportunities within a broader bullish structure.

4. U.S. money supply (M2) and Fed policy outlook

The fourth and potentially most decisive factor is the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision. Markets expect a rate cut in September, which could channel liquidity toward risk assets like Bitcoin. Fed Governor Christopher Waller said: “Based on what I know today, I will support a 25-basis-point cut.”

According to Fred data, U.S. M2 money supply has hit a record $22.1 trillion. Historically, periods of rising money supply alongside lower interest rates have fueled powerful Bitcoin rallies. Investor Kyledoops remarked: “$22.1 trillion — a record high for U.S. money supply. The Fed may talk tough on tightening, but the printer hasn’t retired yet… Bitcoin is the hedge the market prepares for, not the one it reacts to.”

Conclusion

September could prove pivotal for Bitcoin, with four key factors at play: ETF flows, whale behavior, U.S. demand, and Fed policy. If positive drivers dominate, the asset may see a strong rebound; but persistent ETF outflows and heavy selling could extend downside pressure.

Monitoring these indicators closely will help traders catch early signals and avoid heavy losses from sudden volatility.

Oil prices rose on Tuesday as concerns over supply disruptions increased amid escalating conflict between Russia and Ukraine, while investors awaited upcoming US employment data to assess whether it would lead to an interest rate cut.

Brent crude gained $1.12, or 1.6%, to $69.27 a barrel by 08:54 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose $1.77, or 2.77%, to $65.78 a barrel. There were no settlements for WTI contracts on Monday due to the US Labor Day holiday.

Giovanni Staunovo, an analyst at UBS, said expectations of a fresh decline in inventories were supporting the market. This comes after the US summer driving season ended on Monday with the Labor Day holiday, signaling the close of the peak demand period in the world’s largest fuel market.

On the supply side, recent Ukrainian drone strikes disrupted facilities accounting for at least 17% of Russia’s refining capacity, equivalent to 1.1 million barrels per day, according to Reuters calculations.

Investors are now awaiting the OPEC+ meeting scheduled for September 7 for any signals on future production plans. Analysts expect the group to maintain the voluntary cuts of about 1.65 million barrels per day implemented by eight members, cuts that continue to support the market and keep prices within the $60-a-barrel range.

Analysts at SEB Commodities noted in a client memo that oil prices could fall for the fourth consecutive year, averaging $55 a barrel in the final quarter of this year, before OPEC+ intervenes to stabilize the market in 2026 through production cuts.

A series of US labor market reports is due this week ahead of the Federal Reserve’s September meeting, data that could strengthen expectations for monetary easing after the disappointing July employment figures.

The US dollar steadied near its lowest level in several weeks on Tuesday, as investors assessed the likelihood of an imminent interest rate cut, alongside uncertainty over the fate of US tariffs.

By 04:39 a.m. Eastern Time (08:39 GMT), the dollar index – which measures the performance of the US currency against a basket of major peers – rose 0.6% to 98.30, but remained close to the five-week low it touched on Monday. In contrast, the euro fell against the dollar following the release of fresh inflation data from the eurozone, while the British pound dropped 1.0%.

US Employment Data in Focus

Traders this week are focused on the August nonfarm payrolls report, due Friday, which will be crucial in cementing bets on the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates at its September 16–17 meeting. Data from the CME FedWatch tool shows markets are pricing in an 87% chance of the Fed lowering its benchmark rate by 25 basis points.

These expectations were reinforced after Fed Chair Jerome Powell, at an economic symposium last month, said policymakers were ready to adjust policies if inflation continued to ease and the labor market showed signs of slowing. Analysts at ING wrote in a note: “Remember that the July jobs report – particularly the negative revisions totaling 258,000 jobs for previous months – was the reason behind the reversal of the dollar rally in July, which pushed Fed Chair Jerome Powell to open the door to a September rate cut.”

They added: “Again, the focus is expected to fall heavily on subsequent monthly revisions, given that only 60% of survey participants respond in the first month.”

Later on Tuesday, data on US manufacturing activity from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) is due, to be followed this week by a services-sector reading, which accounts for more than two-thirds of activity in the world’s largest economy, while manufacturing represents about 10% of GDP.

Uncertainty Over US Tariffs

At the same time, the fate of US tariffs remains unclear. A US appeals court ruled last week that most of the tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump were illegal, a decision that could undermine one of his main economic policy tools and a bargaining chip in international negotiations. However, the court left the tariffs in place until October 14, to allow time for the Trump administration to appeal to the US Supreme Court.

The impact of tariffs remains a persistent question for markets and also for the Federal Reserve in shaping its policies. Despite Trump’s repeated calls for rapid rate cuts, the Fed this year has maintained a more cautious “wait-and-see” stance before making any significant monetary policy decisions.

In a separate development, Trump recently pushed to dismiss Fed Governor Lisa Cook, raising expectations that the White House may seek to appoint rate-setters more inclined toward advocating faster interest rate cuts.