When oil reached $55 per barrel in late 2025, drilling and completion activity across the industry had already slowed sharply. A few months later, the war in Iran erupted, pushing West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude above $100. Normally, that price level would signal a major surge in drilling activity. But that is not what industry insiders are seeing.

Rising oil prices are dominating headlines and political debates, yet they are largely absent from conversations with exploration and production (E&P) companies and oilfield service providers.

On the ninth day of Operation “Epic Rage,” a discussion with a chemical supplier—who also owns a hydraulic fracturing company in Appalachia and an E&P company in the Powder River Basin—did not even mention the war. The same was true in conversations with another operator, a fracking operations manager, a drilling manager, the chief financial officer, the controller, the land manager, and even the office manager.

No one, according to the author, is talking much about the recent price surge, let alone celebrating it. Aside from briefly mentioning the need for hedging, most reactions amount to a shrug and a simple attitude: “Let’s benefit from it while we can.”

Such a muted reaction may surprise observers outside the industry, but it feels normal to those within it. After years of extreme price swings, the industry has grown cautious. It is also widely assumed that when the war ends, the supply-demand picture will look only slightly different, even if attacks on energy infrastructure temporarily disrupt production. That alone is not enough to justify restarting drilling rigs that were recently shut down.

Geopolitical risks are as common in drilling as dry wells or mechanical failures. While the war premium in oil prices matters, it is not sufficient to build an entire development program around it.

In April 2020, the industry endured the COVID-19 crisis, a miserable fracking market, and a storage crisis that pushed WTI prices to negative $37 per barrel. Two years later, in March 2022, oil reached a decade-high near $130 after Russia invaded Ukraine. Over the following nine months, North America added roughly 100 drilling rigs until early 2023, when the count began declining again—a downward trend that has continued since.

If oil approached $120 per barrel, industry discussions might become more serious. More importantly, if prices remained in the high-$70 range for several months, activity would likely increase. But with idle rigs and empty fracturing schedules today, companies need something more substantial—something closer to certainty.

Short-term profits driven by war are expected to fade, and everyone knows it. It would not be surprising either if the Donald Trump administration imposed some form of price controls, similar to policies used in earlier eras for oil and airline tickets.

For now, nothing has changed on the ground. There has been no increase in requests for proposals (RFPs), and operators are not calling to reserve slots in fracking schedules. Even missile strikes have not broken the stagnation currently affecting the oil market.

In the oilfield services sector, times like this are marked by waiting and watching. No one wants to commit effort prematurely. Perhaps later—but not yet.

According to the article’s analyst, two triggers would need to occur before activity truly accelerates:

A shift in the global supply-demand balance.

A prolonged war—which in reality may represent the same factor.

At present, the only force capable of significantly altering the supply-demand balance would be a long war. But that would take time, and it is doubtful voters would tolerate a sustained bombing campaign lasting months.

The extra cash generated during nine days of conflict will likely go toward completing some previously drilled but uncompleted wells (DUCs). More likely, however, the money will be distributed to shareholders rather than spent on oilfield services. Capital providers are also unlikely to release new funding anytime soon, and the forward oil price curve has not changed significantly.

Like many searching for better opportunities, the author attended this year’s NAPE conference—a marketplace where capital meets investment opportunities. His E&P company did not host a booth, though many friends marketing deals did.

What stood out most was the clear divide between those with capital and those without it. Opportunity seekers resembled unwanted students at a school dance, standing quietly in the dusty corners of the hall. Meanwhile, the “cool kids” were the capital providers: private equity firms with large booths filled with couches and lounge chairs, alongside banks, brokers, and private capital providers.

Then there are the stories about connections with family offices—those “unicorns” everyone hears about but rarely encounters.

Deals may still be made, often through networking and pre-arranged meetings. But the structure of those deals follows what insiders call the “golden rule”: whoever has the gold makes the rules.

If oil stabilized around $90 for an extended period, the situation would reverse. Opportunity owners would be the ones with the comfortable booths and coffee bars. But that is not the reality today.

Even with rising prices, bearish traders will likely wait for the final missile to fall before immediately pushing prices lower again. Only a major supply disruption—such as the destruction of oil infrastructure or sabotage like the burning Kuwaiti oil wells during the 1991 Gulf War—would significantly change the equation.

Otherwise, the market will eventually return to pricing the marginal barrel, recently estimated around $50 per barrel. That level is undesirable because it is too low and fuels extreme cyclical volatility.

But oil at $90 is also too high to build a stable business around. For that reason—and because capital still dictates the rules—E&P companies will remain cautious while service firms continue to struggle until market forces rebalance supply and demand through consumption rather than war.

The Canadian dollar slipped on Monday from a level close to its highest point in nearly a month against the US dollar, but it continued to post gains against some other G10 currencies as the surge in oil prices driven by the war in the Middle East influenced investor sentiment.

The Canadian currency, known as the “loonie,” fell 0.1% to C$1.3585 per US dollar, or 73.61 US cents, after touching its strongest level since February 11 at C$1.3523 earlier in the session. Meanwhile, the Canadian dollar rose 0.2% against the euro.

Mark Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex, said: “Many people see the strength of the Canadian dollar and its relative performance and link that to higher oil prices.”

He added: “But the more durable long-term relationship is that when the US dollar is strong, Canada behaves like a proxy for it. When the US dollar rises, the Canadian dollar tends to rise against other currencies as well.”

The US dollar, considered a safe-haven asset, gained against a basket of major currencies, while stocks on Wall Street declined amid concerns that a prolonged conflict in the Middle East could disrupt global energy supplies and weigh on economic growth.

Both the United States and Canada are major oil producers, and crude prices climbed to nearly a four-year high of $119.48 per barrel before easing slightly later.

Canadian trade data for January is scheduled for release on Thursday, while the February employment report will be published at the end of the week. However, the impact of these data on the Bank of Canada’s interest rate decision expected next week may be limited.

Chandler said: “I fear the war has made all economic data stale or less relevant.”

Data released Friday by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed that speculators reduced bullish bets on the Canadian dollar, with net non-commercial long positions falling to 21,050 contracts as of March 3, down from 27,578 the previous week.

In Canada’s bond market, yields were mixed along a flatter curve, with the two-year yield rising 3.8 basis points to 2.674%, while the 10-year yield fell 1.5 basis points to 3.399%.

Aluminum prices climbed to levels not seen in four years on Monday as concerns intensified over prolonged shipping disruptions in the Middle East following the war between the United States and Israel against Iran, raising fears about supply shortages of the metal.

However, the benchmark aluminum price later fell 1.7% to $3,386 per metric ton at 11:05 GMT after earlier touching $3,544 per ton, its highest level since March 2022, when the metal used in transportation, construction, and packaging reached a record of $4,073.50 per ton.

The conflict in the Middle East has led to a near-total closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which aluminum shipments produced in the region normally pass on their way to the United States and Europe.

Ed Meir, an analyst at Marex, said: “Europeans are particularly concerned, as the shutdown of aluminum production in the Gulf coincides with the long-term supplier Mozal going offline this month.”

He added: “Some producers are trying to rely on inventory outside the region to meet their commitments, but we believe that will be difficult given the large volumes of Russian metal on exchange (currently under sanctions) and generally low inventory levels.”

In December, South32 announced that the Mozal smelter, which has an annual capacity of 560,000 metric tons, would be placed under temporary maintenance starting in mid-March after negotiations with utilities and the Mozambican government failed to reach a new power agreement.

Supply concerns have also pushed the aluminum cash contract premium over the three-month futures contract from a discount, or contango, into a premium, or backwardation. The premium rose to $47.4 per ton on Friday, the highest level since February 2022, and was last seen around $32 per ton.

Prices across the forward curve through 2036 also indicate persistent backwardation.

In other metals, rising oil prices have increased expectations of slower global growth and weaker demand for industrial metals, which have also faced pressure from the stronger US dollar.

Copper fell 0.6% to $12,789 per ton.

Zinc rose 1.8% to $3,357 per ton.

Lead declined 0.8% to $1,937 per ton.

Tin dropped 3.3% to $48,426 per ton.

Nickel fell 0.6% to $17,360 per ton.

Bitcoin hovered near the lower boundary of its consolidation range around $67,000 on Monday after failing last week to break through a key resistance zone.

Institutional inflows continue to provide some support for the cryptocurrency, as spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded positive inflows for the second consecutive week. However, analysts warn that caution is warranted, as the ongoing war between the United States and Iran has pushed oil prices to their highest levels since mid-June 2022, raising concerns about renewed inflationary pressures that could negatively affect high-risk assets such as Bitcoin.

Why rising oil prices could hurt risk assets

The war between the United States and Iran entered its tenth day on Monday, a relatively prolonged conflict that has weighed on global investors and weakened risk appetite, limiting Bitcoin’s upside.

Over the weekend, tensions escalated further after the United States and Israel carried out a joint operation targeting several Iranian storage facilities.

Oil prices had already surged after the closure of the Strait of Hormuz last week, which disrupted oil shipping routes and reduced global supplies.

The latest strikes tightened supply conditions even further, pushing West Texas Intermediate crude to $113.28 during Monday’s Asian trading session — a level not seen since mid-June 2022.

At the time of writing, prices were seeing a slight correction following reports that the International Energy Agency is discussing with G7 countries the possibility of a coordinated release of emergency oil reserves to stabilize markets.

Such a move could temporarily increase supply and curb the sharp rise in prices.

In the longer term, however, risks remain. Persistently high oil prices increase global inflationary pressures as higher energy costs feed into transportation and production sectors, raising the prices of goods and services.

This could create a high-inflation environment that forces central banks to tighten monetary policy, which would weigh on high-risk assets like Bitcoin because higher borrowing costs reduce market liquidity and increase demand for safer, fixed-income assets.

Institutional demand for Bitcoin remains strong

Institutional demand for Bitcoin remained solid last week, signaling a degree of investor confidence despite ongoing geopolitical tensions.

According to data from SoSoValue, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded inflows of $568.45 million last week, following $787.31 million in positive inflows the previous week.

If these inflows continue and accelerate, Bitcoin prices could recover in the coming weeks.

Could Bitcoin become “digital gold”?

QCP Capital said in a report on Monday that global equity markets have become more defensive amid rising uncertainty.

The report added that US Treasury bonds and gold also failed to attract their usual safe-haven demand, as both came under pressure due to rising oil prices that sparked inflation concerns and pushed bond yields higher.

Instead, the US dollar has emerged as the preferred defensive asset, supported by rising yields and the fact that the United States is a net energy exporter.

The report noted that although most risk assets have weakened under current market pressures, Bitcoin has shown notable resilience — a pattern not seen in the cryptocurrency market for some time.

It concluded that although Bitcoin has not yet fully achieved the concept of “digital gold,” its practical use as a “digital escape asset” is becoming more relevant, particularly in Gulf countries during periods of currency volatility and political instability.

Bitcoin price outlook

Bitcoin was trading around $67,600 as of Monday, with a slightly bearish bias in the near term, as the price remains below the 50-week exponential moving average near $90,000 and the 100-week EMA near $84,000, while hovering close to the 200-week EMA.

The weekly Relative Strength Index stands at 29 within oversold territory but remains weak, suggesting continued bearish pressure.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator also remains below the signal line and below the zero level, although the shrinking histogram bars indicate weakening downside momentum without a clear bullish reversal yet.

The next key support level lies at $60,000, reinforced by an ascending trendline near $55,500, where buyers are expected to defend the broader bullish cycle structure.

If the $60,000 level breaks decisively, however, the price could move toward deeper corrections, particularly after losing the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the rally between $49,000 and $126,200 near $78,490.

On the upside, the first resistance lies near the 23.6% retracement level around $108,000, followed by a previous trading range near $115,000. The current bearish trend would only fade with a weekly close above this area.

Short-term technical outlook

On the daily chart, Bitcoin is trading within a parallel channel, with resistance near $71,980, keeping a slight bearish bias in place despite the recent rebound toward the middle of the channel.

The price is also trading below the 50-day and 100-day exponential moving averages at $73,263 and $80,648 respectively, signaling a continuation of the broader negative trend.

The daily RSI stands at 46, below the midpoint level of 50, reflecting weak momentum.

The MACD remains above the signal line, but fading momentum from recent peaks suggests a slowdown in bullish pressure.

Immediate resistance appears near the upper boundary of the channel around $71,980, where a price rejection would maintain the short-term downtrend.

However, a daily close above this level could open the way toward the $73,000 region.

On the downside, the first support lies at the channel floor near $65,120, while a break below this level could lead to a test of the key psychological level at $60,000.

As long as Bitcoin remains trading between $65,120 and $71,980, the price will likely continue moving within a downward-sloping corrective channel.