Oil prices trimmed early gains on Friday, one day after renewed fighting near the Strait of Hormuz raised fresh questions about the future of the ceasefire between the United States and Iran.

Brent crude futures rose by 22 cents to $100.28 per barrel by 09:47 GMT, after earlier climbing by as much as 3%.

US West Texas Intermediate crude futures also rose by 5 cents to $94.86 per barrel.

Despite the limited gains, both benchmark crudes remain on track for weekly losses exceeding 7%.

The Gulf witnessed clashes between US and Iranian forces, while the United Arab Emirates came under new attacks, as Washington awaited Tehran’s response to a US proposal aimed at ending the conflict, which began with joint US-Israeli airstrikes on Iran on February 28.

Later, US President Donald Trump told reporters that the ceasefire remains in place, attempting to downplay the latest exchange of fire.

John Evans, analyst at PVM Oil Associates, said: “There are many important questions, such as how quickly supplies from Gulf countries can recover, the state of inventories as the peak gasoline season approaches, and the shape of sanctions after any settlement.”

He added: “But none of these issues can be addressed before reaching a long-term resolution to the hostilities.”

Vandana Hari, founder of oil market analytics firm Vanda Insights, said: “The US administration continues to overpromote the prospects of de-escalation, while optimistic markets are embracing that narrative.”

She added: “What is interesting is that every rebound in prices comes gradually and incompletely, making these misleading moves somewhat effective.”

In a separate development, Reuters reported on Thursday that the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission is investigating $7 billion worth of oil trades executed before major Iran war-related announcements made by Trump.

Reuters explained that most of these trades were short positions — bets on falling prices — and were executed on the Intercontinental Exchange and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange before Trump’s statements regarding delaying attacks, announcing a ceasefire, or making other changes to US policy toward Iran, all of which later contributed to declines in oil prices.

The US dollar edged lower on Friday after renewed clashes between the United States and Iran, despite US President Donald Trump confirming that the ceasefire remains in place.

The two sides have exchanged intermittent fire since the ceasefire took effect on April 7, with Iran targeting locations in Gulf countries, including the United Arab Emirates.

With oil prices rising only modestly, investors remained cautiously optimistic about the possibility of a quick resolution to the conflict, amid the largely fragile truce and reports indicating that talks between Washington and Tehran are continuing.

Analysts noted that investor positioning in currency markets has returned to historical averages and is no longer supporting the dollar as strongly as it did a few weeks ago.

Francesco Pesole, FX strategist at ING, said: “The hope for traders betting on high-risk assets remains that China will pressure the United States into reaching some form of agreement in the Gulf before the expected Trump-Xi summit on May 14 and 15.”

He added that “the outlook for the dollar now appears clearly two-sided, with stock market reactions potentially having a greater impact on the US currency than fluctuations in oil prices.”

European stocks declined, while US stock futures rose by 0.30% after the S&P 500 index fell 0.38% on Thursday.

The dollar index, which measures the US currency against a basket of major currencies, declined by 0.14% to 98.195 points after earlier this week recording 97.623 points, its lowest level since February 27, one day before the outbreak of the war.

Investors had rushed toward the dollar as a safe haven while selling currencies of oil-dependent economies such as Japan and eurozone countries following the rise in oil prices after Iran’s effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Markets are also awaiting the release of the US nonfarm payrolls report later on Friday. Pesole said it may require “an exceptional number, particularly one weak enough, to generate a real move in dollar volatility.”

The euro rose by 0.16% to $1.1743, heading toward ending the week with slight gains.

The yen supported by intervention risks

Traders remained focused on the Japanese yen following recent interventions and verbal warnings from Tokyo, which have limited sharp selloffs in the Japanese currency. The yen remained almost stable at 156.85 against the dollar, heading toward ending the week relatively unchanged.

Japan’s top currency diplomat said on Thursday that Tokyo faces no restrictions regarding the number of times it can intervene in currency markets and that it remains in daily contact with US authorities, signaling the Japanese government’s determination to defend the yen.

Tony Sycamore, market analyst at IG, said: “Japanese intervention, in the current environment of rising energy prices and yields, can only act as a seatbelt slowing the yen’s decline, but it cannot fully save it.”

He added that unless economic and technical conditions change, the yen is likely to continue testing the Bank of Japan’s willingness to intervene.

In Britain, the pound rose against both the euro and the dollar on Friday after local election results so far confirmed expectations that the Labour Party would suffer significant losses, prompting investors to focus on the future of British Prime Minister Keir Starmer.

The British pound climbed by 0.26% to $1.3584.

The Australian dollar also rose to $0.7221, while the New Zealand dollar traded at $0.5943, with both currencies heading toward weekly gains supported by improving risk appetite over recent days.

Gold prices rose in the European market on Friday, resuming gains that were temporarily halted yesterday, moving once again closer to a two-week high and heading toward recording a weekly gain, driven by renewed weakness in the US dollar amid growing hopes that the Iranian war truce will hold and that peace negotiations between the United States and Iran will continue.

With rising expectations of US interest rate cuts in the coming period, investors are awaiting later today the release of the US nonfarm payrolls report for April, which the Federal Reserve relies on heavily in determining the course of monetary policy in the country.

Price Overview

Gold prices today: Gold prices rose by 1.0% to $4,746.65, from the opening level of $4,685.77, and recorded a low of $4,678.45.

At settlement on Thursday, gold prices lost 0.1%, marking their first decline in the past three days, due to correction and profit-taking operations after earlier recording a two-week high at $4,764.85 per ounce.

Aside from profit-taking sales, gold prices declined due to renewed tensions in global markets following exchanges of fire between the United States and Iran in the Strait of Hormuz.

Weekly trading

Over the course of this week’s trading, which officially ends with today’s settlement, gold prices are currently up by more than 2.5%, heading toward recording their first weekly gain in the past three weeks.

The US dollar

The dollar index fell on Friday by 0.2%, resuming losses that were temporarily halted in the previous session and moving closer again to its lowest level in three months, reflecting declining levels of the US currency against a basket of major and secondary currencies.

This decline comes amid a relative improvement in market risk sentiment, with growing hopes that the Iranian war truce will continue to hold, especially in light of the current calm between US naval forces and Iran’s Revolutionary Guard in the Strait of Hormuz.

US Central Command (CENTCOM) had announced on Thursday that three naval destroyers came under attacks involving missiles, drones, and fast boats while crossing the strait, with US forces responding through “self-defense” strikes targeting missile and drone launch sites as well as military facilities in Bandar Abbas and Qeshm Island.

President Trump described the latest US strikes as merely “a light slap,” stressing that the ceasefire agreement remains “in place and effective” despite these skirmishes.

Tehran accused Washington of violating the truce and targeting two Iranian vessels and civilian areas, while announcing that its air defenses intercepted hostile targets over Tehran and coastal regions.

Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone, said: “The path toward a lasting peace agreement is not easy at all.” He added: “Traders have been forced to reconsider the assumptions built during recent sessions regarding the course of the conflict and the normalization of shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.”

US interest rates

According to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool: pricing for the probability of keeping US interest rates unchanged at the June meeting is currently stable at 96%, while pricing for the probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points stands at 4%.

US jobs

In order to reprice the above probabilities, markets are awaiting later today the monthly US jobs report, which will include important labor market data, especially the number of nonfarm payrolls added in April, alongside the unemployment rate and average hourly earnings.

At 12:30 GMT, nonfarm payrolls data will be released, with expectations pointing to the US economy adding 65,000 new jobs in April, down from 178,000 jobs added in March, while the unemployment rate is expected to remain stable at 4.3%, and average hourly earnings are expected to rise by 0.3%, compared to a previous increase of 0.2%.

Gold performance outlook

Kyle Rodda, analyst at Capital.com, said: “Statements from the Trump administration this morning that the ceasefire is still in place, and that there remains ongoing optimism about the possibility of reaching an agreement between the United States and Iran, are currently supporting the gold market.”

Rodda added: “We are simply waiting for the next major headline regarding whether the United States and Iran are moving closer to reaching an agreement. I think we may witness some price volatility over the next 24 hours as the weekend approaches.”

SPDR Fund

Gold holdings at SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, increased on Thursday by about 0.29 metric tons, bringing the total to 1,033.48 metric tons, rebounding from a total of 1,033.19 metric tons, which was the lowest level since October 15, 2025.

The euro rose in the European market on Friday against a basket of global currencies, resuming gains that were temporarily halted yesterday against the US dollar, approaching once again its highest levels in three weeks, benefiting from renewed weakness in the US currency amid hopes that the Iranian war truce will continue to hold despite escalating military tensions between the United States and Iran in the Strait of Hormuz.

With pricing for the probability of a European interest rate hike in June declining, traders are awaiting later today a speech by European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde, which may include further signals regarding inflation developments and the path of monetary policy in the eurozone.

Price Overview

The euro exchange rate today: The euro rose against the dollar by 0.2% to $1.1748, from the opening level of $1.1724, and recorded a low of $1.1721.

The euro ended Thursday’s trading down by 0.2% against the dollar, marking its first loss in the past three days, due to correction and profit-taking operations after recording its highest level in three weeks at $1.1797 in the previous session.

Aside from profit-taking sales, the euro declined due to risk aversion following exchanges of fire between the United States and Iran in the Strait of Hormuz.

The US dollar

The dollar index fell on Friday by 0.2%, resuming losses that were temporarily halted in the previous session and moving closer again to its lowest level in three months, reflecting declining levels of the US currency against a basket of major and secondary currencies.

This decline comes amid a relative improvement in market risk sentiment, with growing hopes that the Iranian war truce will continue to hold, especially in light of the current calm between US naval forces and Iran’s Revolutionary Guard in the Strait of Hormuz.

US Central Command (CENTCOM) had announced on Thursday that three naval destroyers came under attacks involving missiles, drones, and fast boats while crossing the strait, with US forces responding through “self-defense” strikes targeting missile and drone launch sites as well as military facilities in Bandar Abbas and Qeshm Island.

President Trump described the latest US strikes as merely “a light slap,” stressing that the ceasefire agreement remains “in place and effective” despite these skirmishes.

Tehran accused Washington of violating the truce and targeting two Iranian vessels and civilian areas, while announcing that its air defenses intercepted hostile targets over Tehran and coastal regions.

Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone, said: “The path toward a lasting peace agreement is not easy at all.” He added: “Traders have been forced to reconsider the assumptions built during recent sessions regarding the course of the conflict and the normalization of shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.”

Later today, the US jobs report for April will be released, which the Federal Reserve relies on heavily in determining the appropriate monetary policy tools in response to economic developments in the United States.

European interest rates

With global oil prices declining this week, money market pricing for the probability of the European Central Bank raising European interest rates by 25 basis points in June fell from 55% to 45%.

In order to reprice the above probabilities, investors are awaiting later today a speech by European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde at the Bank of Spain economic forum.