Oil prices were little changed on Thursday as traders weighed peace-related discussions over the war in Ukraine against the impact of Western sanctions on Russian supply, with overall activity expected to remain muted due to the US Thanksgiving holiday.

Brent crude futures inched up 5 cents, or 0.1%, to 63.18 dollars a barrel by 14:12 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate gained 18 cents, or 0.3%, to 58.83 dollars.

Russian President Vladimir Putin said Thursday that the outlines of the US–Ukrainian draft peace proposal could form a basis for future agreements to end the conflict. He added that fighting would stop once Ukrainian forces withdraw from key areas under their control, but stressed that if this does not happen, Russia would achieve its objectives by force.

US and Ukrainian officials are working to narrow differences over President Donald Trump’s plan to end Europe’s deadliest conflict since World War II, with Kyiv wary of pressure to accept a deal largely aligned with Russia’s conditions, including territorial concessions.

Barclays wrote in a note: “Geopolitical volatility persists, and hopes for a possible Russia–Ukraine ceasefire have tempered supply concerns stemming from new US sanctions on major Russian producers.”

Meanwhile, OPEC and its allies are expected to leave oil output levels unchanged at their meetings on Sunday and agree on a mechanism to assess members’ maximum production capacity, according to two delegates and a source familiar with the OPEC+ talks.

The eight OPEC+ countries that had been gradually raising output in 2025 are also likely to maintain their pause on increases through the first quarter of 2026, the delegates said.

Oil’s downside was limited by rising expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, as lower interest rates typically boost economic activity and support oil demand.

“We’re heading into year-end with thinner liquidity and no fresh catalysts — unless the Fed surprises markets with a hawkish signal at the December 10 FOMC meeting,” said Kelvin Wong, senior market analyst at OANDA.

He added: “WTI will likely stay range-bound between 56.80 and 60.40 dollars through year-end.”

Bitcoin climbed on Thursday, reclaiming levels above 91,000 dollars as expectations mounted for a Federal Reserve rate cut, triggering a fresh wave of investor interest.

After dropping toward 80,000 dollars last Friday — its lowest since April — the world’s largest cryptocurrency reversed course and traded 5.1% higher at 91,527.5 dollars by 06:19 a.m. ET (11:19 GMT).

Traders now assign roughly an 85% probability to a quarter-point rate cut, a sharp jump from 44% a week earlier. Lower interest rates typically support “risk assets” such as Bitcoin by boosting liquidity and encouraging demand for higher-yielding alternatives.

Still, pockets of caution remain. Inflation in the US is still elevated, and broader economic data has been mixed, raising questions over how quickly the Fed can move — and whether Bitcoin’s rebound is a short-term correction or the start of a more durable upswing.

Among optimists, the potential appointment of Kevin Hassett as the next Fed Chair — seen by some as inclined toward looser monetary policy — adds further momentum to the bullish outlook for Bitcoin and other risk-sensitive assets.

Naver Financial to acquire Upbit operator in a 10 billion dollar deal

Naver Financial, the payments arm of South Korea’s tech giant Naver Corp., agreed to acquire Dunamu, the operator of the major cryptocurrency exchange Upbit, in a transaction valued at around 10 billion dollars.

The deal will be executed through a share swap that will make Dunamu a wholly owned subsidiary of Naver Financial.

The companies said the merger will combine Naver’s large digital payments ecosystem with Upbit’s dominant position in South Korea’s crypto-trading market.

It marks one of the largest fintech and digital-asset M&A deals in the country to date, positioning Naver to expand into blockchain-based financial services once regulatory approvals are secured.

Crypto prices today: altcoins advance

Most altcoins gained on Thursday, following Bitcoin’s rise amid improving risk appetite.

Ethereum, the world’s second-largest cryptocurrency, rose 3.9% to 3,029.29 dollars.

XRP, the third-largest, added 0.8% to 2.1874 dollars.

The US dollar headed for its biggest weekly decline in four months on Thursday, as investors increased their bets on further monetary easing amid growing pressure from President Donald Trump for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates.

The Japanese yen rose 0.11% to 156.27 per dollar, supported by a more hawkish tone from several Bank of Japan officials.

With US markets closed for the Thanksgiving holiday, thin liquidity amplified intraday price swings.

Francesco Pesole, FX strategist at ING, said: “This may be an attractive environment for Japanese authorities to intervene in USD/JPY.”

He added that any action may still be more likely after weak US data, noting that the pair’s recent pullback may have reduced the sense of urgency.

Rate-cut expectations weigh on the dollar

The US Dollar Index edged up 0.1% to 99.65, but remains on track for its biggest weekly drop since July, down 0.54% so far this week after falling from a six-month high set last week.

Mark Haefele, chief investment officer of UBS Global Wealth Management, urged investors to reconsider their currency allocations given the dollar’s fading appeal, recommending the euro and the Australian dollar instead.

Investors also said the potential appointment of White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett — a strong advocate of lower rates — as the next Fed Chair could be a negative catalyst for the dollar.

Views on the dollar’s outlook remain divided.

Thanos Vamvakidis, global head of FX strategy at Barclays, said Europe had clearly benefited in recent months from interest-rate differentials and stronger growth expectations compared with the US.

“But some of those assumptions are now being questioned,” he added. “Higher euro funding costs are one factor, but the strength and resilience of the US economy is another.”

Euro and Swiss franc react to Ukraine peace talks

The euro slipped 0.13% to 1.1581$, after touching a one-and-a-half-week high of 1.1613$ earlier in the session.

Markets are watching diplomatic efforts around a potential peace agreement in Ukraine, which could support the single currency.

US envoy Steve Witkoff is expected to travel to Moscow next week for talks with Russian officials, though a senior Russian diplomat said Wednesday that Moscow will not offer major concessions.

Any progress toward a deal could weigh on the Swiss franc — a traditional geopolitical safe haven — though analysts note there is still little evidence of a clear “peace dividend.”

The dollar hit a one-week low against the franc at 0.8028 before recovering 0.20% to 0.8060.

Australian and New Zealand dollars climb

The New Zealand dollar jumped to a three-week high of 0.5728$, gaining nearly 2% since the Reserve Bank of New Zealand adopted a more hawkish tone yesterday.

Although the RBNZ cut rates on Wednesday, it signaled that a pause had been considered and suggested the easing cycle has ended. Strong data on Thursday further boosted expectations of future hikes, with markets pricing an increase by December 2026.

This stands in stark contrast to the more than 90 basis points of Fed cuts currently priced in for the US over the next year.

The Australian dollar also advanced after stronger-than-expected inflation data on Wednesday reinforced expectations that Australia’s easing cycle has likewise ended.

Australian 3- and 10-year bond yields — at 3.86% and 4.5% respectively — are the highest among G10 economies, making the currency appear “cheap,” according to analysts.

The Australian dollar last traded at 0.6536$, sitting near the midpoint of the range it has held for roughly 18 months.

Meanwhile, steady yuan-fixing operations by the People’s Bank of China helped keep the Chinese yuan stable at 7.08 per dollar on Thursday.

Gold prices fell in European trading on Thursday, retreating from a two-week high as investors engaged in corrective selling and profit-taking, while the pause in the US dollar’s recent decline added additional pressure on the metal.

Despite the rising likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, investors are awaiting more key US economic data as well as further commentary from Fed policymakers.

Price Overview

Gold prices dropped by 0.5% to 4,142.71$, down from an opening level of 4,163.18$, after hitting an intraday high of 4,168.81$.

On Wednesday, gold settled 0.8% higher, its second gain in the last three sessions, reaching a two-week peak at 4,173.48$ per ounce, supported by the weaker US dollar.

US Dollar

The US Dollar Index rose 0.1% on Thursday, holding above the two-week low touched earlier in the session, reflecting a pause in the currency’s recent decline against a basket of major peers.

Even with today’s uptick, the dollar remains under negative pressure as markets continue to price in a December rate cut. Trading volumes are also expected to thin due to the Thanksgiving holiday.

US Interest Rates

• Several Fed officials, including New York Fed President John Williams and Governor Christopher Waller, signaled that easing policy in December may be justified given labor-market weakness.

• Kevin Hassett, now viewed as the frontrunner to replace Jerome Powell as Fed Chair, said interest rates should be lower.

• Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Tuesday that the Fed’s interest-rate framework is “struggling” and needs simplification.

• According to CME’s FedWatch tool: markets are pricing an 85% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut in December, with a 15% probability of no change.

To reassess these expectations, investors are closely tracking incoming US economic releases and additional Fed commentary.

Gold Outlook

Brian Lan, managing director at Gold Silver Central in Singapore, said gold is trading sideways for now, with the Fed offering little clarity on its next steps ahead of the December meeting.

SPDR Fund

Holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust — the world’s largest gold-backed ETF — rose by 4.57 metric tons on Wednesday to 1,045.43 metric tons, the highest level since November 13.