Oil prices were steady on Tuesday as investors monitored threats by US President Donald Trump to impose tariffs on European countries opposing his push to take control of Greenland, while stronger global growth expectations and a weaker US dollar provided underlying support for prices.

Brent crude futures for March rose by 23 cents, or 0.36%, to $64.17 per barrel by 11:26 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate crude climbed 13 cents, or 0.2%, to $59.57 per barrel.

Concerns over a renewed trade war intensified over the weekend after Trump said he would impose additional tariffs of 10% starting February 1 on imports from Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Finland, and Britain, rising to 25% on June 1 if no agreement is reached over Greenland.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said on Tuesday that the EU’s executive arm is working on a package to support Arctic security, describing the proposed tariffs as a “mistake.”

However, the tariff threats are unlikely to have an immediate impact on oil market balances, according to Tamas Varga, an analyst at PVM. He added that prices were supported by the International Monetary Fund raising its global economic growth forecast for this year, as well as by higher diesel prices.

Chinese data and weaker dollar support oil

Tony Sycamore, market analyst at IG, said the oil market is also drawing support from better-than-expected fourth-quarter Chinese GDP data released on Monday.

He added: “This resilience in the world’s largest oil importer has provided a lift to demand sentiment.”

Data showed that China’s economy grew by 5.0% last year, while activity in 2025 also strengthened, with year-on-year growth of 4.1%. Crude oil production rose by 1.5%, according to figures released on Monday.

Oil prices were further supported by a weaker US dollar, as a softer greenback tends to boost demand by making dollar-denominated oil cheaper for buyers using other currencies.

The US dollar fell against most major currencies during Tuesday’s trading, while sterling headed for its biggest two-day rise since December, supported by a broad rally as investors pared exposure to the US currency amid escalating trade tensions between the United States and Europe over Greenland.

US President Donald Trump has threatened to impose tariffs starting February 1 on imports from the United Kingdom, Denmark, Norway, Finland, France, Germany, and the Netherlands, unless these countries agree to transfer ownership of Greenland — the autonomous Danish territory — to the United States.

Investors responded by selling US assets, including the dollar, while rotating heavily into European currencies and gold.

Sterling has risen 0.8% over the past two days to trade near $1.348, although it underperformed the euro, which emerged as the biggest beneficiary of the dollar selloff. The euro was last up 0.4% on Tuesday — its largest daily gain since early November — trading at 87.03 pence against the pound.

UK labour market data released earlier in the day initially painted a relatively bleak picture of employment conditions. The unemployment rate held near its highest level in almost five years in November, while payroll employment fell at its fastest pace since November 2020.

However, analysts noted that the report also contained some more encouraging signals, suggesting that the worst of the slowdown may now be behind the economy.

George Buckley, chief UK and euro area economist at Nomura, said the data showed a decline in layoffs, alongside stable job vacancies and an unchanged unemployment rate. He also pointed to a fall in labour market inactivity. Wage growth — a key indicator closely watched by the Bank of England — slowed to levels he described as “consistent with the inflation target.”

Buckley added: “This provides a supportive backdrop for the bank to deliver another rate cut — and we expect a final move to 3.50% in April, with markets pricing the risk of an earlier cut or a larger number of reductions.”

Markets are currently pricing in one interest rate cut by the Bank of England by mid-year, with around a 60% probability of a second cut being delivered by December.

Silver prices rose in European markets on Tuesday, extending gains for a second consecutive session and continuing to shatter record levels, after breaking above the $95-per-ounce mark for the first time ever. The rally was driven by strong demand from retail investors, alongside support from the ongoing decline in the US dollar against a basket of currencies.

Renewed threats by US President Donald Trump to impose additional tariffs on European allies have weighed on global market sentiment, triggering a strong shift toward safe-haven assets.

Price Overview

• Silver prices today: Silver prices climbed 1.25% to $95.51, the highest level on record, from the session opening at $94.34. Prices touched a session low of $92.61.

• At Monday’s settlement, silver prices surged by 4.65%, marking the first gain in three sessions, supported by strong safe-haven demand for precious metals.

The US dollar

The dollar index fell by 0.6% on Tuesday, deepening losses for a second straight session and hitting a two-week low at 98.44 points, reflecting continued weakness in the US currency against a basket of major and secondary currencies.

Trump’s renewed tariff threats against European allies have revived what is known as the “Sell America” trade, last seen after the so-called Liberation Day tariffs announced in April last year, when US stocks, Treasury bonds, and the dollar all declined.

Tony Sycamore, market analyst at IG in Sydney, said investors are shedding dollar-denominated assets due to a loss of confidence in the US administration and rising strains in international alliances following Trump’s latest threats.

Sycamore added that while there are hopes the US administration may soon soften these threats — as it has done with previous tariff announcements — securing control over Greenland remains a core national security objective for the current administration.

Trump’s tariff threats

Over the weekend, Trump said he would impose additional tariffs of 10% starting February 1 on imports from Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Finland, and Britain, until the United States is allowed to purchase Greenland.

Major European Union countries on Sunday condemned the tariff threats over Greenland, describing them as blackmail, while France proposed responding with a set of unprecedented economic countermeasures.

EU diplomats said ambassadors reached a preliminary agreement on Sunday to intensify efforts aimed at deterring Trump from imposing tariffs on European allies.

US interest rates

• According to the CME FedWatch tool from the CME Group, pricing for the probability of keeping US interest rates unchanged at the January 2026 meeting currently stands at 95%, while pricing for a 25-basis-point rate cut remains at 5%.

• Investors are currently pricing in two US interest rate cuts over the coming year, while Federal Reserve projections point to a single 25-basis-point cut.

• To reprice these expectations, investors are closely monitoring upcoming US economic data releases.

• The US Supreme Court is widely expected to review this week a case related to Trump’s attempt to dismiss Federal Reserve Board member Lisa Cook.

• The Federal Reserve is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged at its meeting scheduled for January 27–28, despite Trump’s calls for rate cuts.

Gold prices rose in European markets on Tuesday, extending gains for a second consecutive session and continuing to shatter record levels, after breaking above the $4,700-per-ounce threshold for the first time ever. The move was supported by the current pullback in the US dollar, which has been hit hard by President Donald Trump’s tariff threats.

With the first Federal Reserve policy meeting of 2026 approaching, investors are closely monitoring the release of further key US economic data in an effort to gather clearer signals on the path of US interest rates this year.

Price Overview

• Gold prices today: Gold prices climbed by about 1.0% to $4,717.12, marking a fresh all-time high, from the session opening level of $4,670.99, while recording a low at $4,659.65.

• At Monday’s settlement, the precious metal posted a gain of 1.6%, marking its first advance in three sessions, as investors turned to safe-haven assets amid escalating global geopolitical tensions.

The US Dollar

The dollar index fell by 0.2% on Tuesday, extending losses for a second consecutive session and touching a one-week low at 98.84 points, reflecting continued weakness in the US currency against a basket of major and secondary currencies.

Renewed threats by US President Donald Trump to impose tariffs on European allies revived the so-called “Sell America” trade that followed the Liberation Day tariff announcements in April last year, when US equities, Treasury bonds, and the dollar all declined.

Tony Sycamore, market analyst at IG in Sydney, said investors’ retreat from dollar-denominated assets reflects a loss of confidence in the US administration and growing strains in international alliances following Trump’s latest threats.

Sycamore added that while there are hopes the US administration may soon seek to de-escalate these threats, as it did with previous tariff announcements, securing control over Greenland remains a core national security objective for the current administration.

Trump’s Tariff Threats

Trump said over the weekend that he would impose additional tariffs of 10% starting February 1 on imports from Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Finland, and Britain, until the United States is allowed to purchase Greenland.

Major European Union countries on Sunday condemned the tariff threats over Greenland, describing them as blackmail, while France proposed responding with a set of unprecedented economic countermeasures.

EU diplomats said the bloc’s ambassadors reached a preliminary agreement on Sunday to intensify efforts aimed at dissuading Trump from imposing tariffs on European allies.

US Interest Rates

• According to the CME FedWatch tool from CME Group, pricing for the probability of keeping US interest rates unchanged at the January 2026 meeting currently stands at 95%, while pricing for a 25-basis-point rate cut remains at 5%.

• Investors are currently pricing in two US interest rate cuts over the coming year, while Federal Reserve projections point to a single 25-basis-point cut.

• To reprice these expectations, investors are closely tracking upcoming US economic data releases.

• The US Supreme Court is expected this week to consider a case related to Trump’s attempt to dismiss Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook.

• The Federal Reserve is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged at its meeting scheduled for January 27–28, despite Trump’s calls for rate cuts.

Outlook for Gold

Tim Waterer, Chief Market Analyst at KCM Trade, said Trump’s “disruptive” approach to international affairs and his push for lower interest rates are highly supportive of precious metals, as clearly reflected in the sharp rally in gold and silver prices.

Kelvin Wong, Asia-Pacific market analyst at OANDA, said the Federal Reserve is expected to continue its rate-cutting cycle in 2026 due to a slowing labour market and weakening consumer confidence. Wong expects the first rate cut to occur either in June or July.

SPDR Fund

Gold holdings at the SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, were unchanged on Monday, leaving total holdings steady at 1,085.67 metric tons — the highest level since May 3, 2022.