Oil prices were little changed on Tuesday as investors balanced concerns about rising global supply with uncertainty over the impact of new US sanctions on Russian crude.

Brent futures rose 35 cents, or 0.55%, to $64.41 a barrel by 11:23 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate gained 29 cents, or 0.48%, to $60.42 a barrel.

Investors continued to assess the implications of US sanctions on Russia and their potential effect on global crude and refined fuel markets.

Sources told Reuters on Monday that Russia’s Lukoil declared force majeure at one of its oil fields in Iraq — the most significant disruption so far resulting from last month’s sanctions.

Thomas Varga, an analyst at PVM, said restrictions on Russian oil exports were keeping prices supported despite ample crude supply. He added, “The new US sanctions on major Russian oil companies and producers are hurting refined product exports, which is why heating oil, diesel, and gasoline prices are moving differently from crude.”

Diesel refining margins in Europe hit their highest level in 21 months, surpassing $31.50 a barrel on Tuesday, while gasoline margins reached an 18-month high near $21 a barrel on Monday.

However, fears of oversupply continue to limit oil’s upside.

Earlier this month, OPEC+ agreed to raise its production target for December by 137,000 barrels per day and to pause further increases during the first quarter of next year.

Commerzbank analysts wrote in a note, “The oil market faces a large surplus next year, which will likely keep prices under pressure. The main reason for this glut is the substantial expansion in OPEC+ supply.”

The bank added that OPEC+ has increased output by 2 million barrels per day since April, and the group’s readiness to unwind voluntary production cuts after the first-quarter pause could add another 1 million barrels per day in 2026.

Moreover, analysts noted that the volume of oil stored on tankers in Asian waters has doubled in recent weeks, as tighter Western sanctions reduced exports to China and India.

At the same time, global markets found some relief as the US Senate approved a deal to end the longest government shutdown in history, restoring funding for federal agencies.

The US dollar strengthened on Tuesday against both the safe-haven Japanese yen and the growth-linked Australian dollar, as investors turned more cautious toward risk and shifted their focus to upcoming economic data following the end of the US government shutdown.

In early Asian trading, the yen hit its weakest level since February, while the Australian dollar held on to part of its recent gains against the greenback.

In recent days, risk-sensitive currencies such as the Australian dollar and the British pound have recorded notable gains, while safe-haven currencies like the yen have weakened, as optimism over the imminent end of the US government shutdown boosted appetite for risk assets.

Markets Price In the End of the US Government Shutdown

Investors expect the US government shutdown to end in the coming days after the Senate on Monday approved a deal to restore funding to federal agencies and halt President Donald Trump’s campaign to shrink the government workforce.

Isabel Matheus e Lago, chief economist at BNP Paribas, said: “Our forecasts suggest the US economy remains resilient and inflation is moderating at a steady pace, which should allow the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December and then proceed more cautiously through 2026.”

She added: “Our reading of the economic landscape shows that we’re still in a phase of low hiring and layoffs, with no clear signs of stress... but let’s see what the upcoming data reveals.”

The agreement to end the shutdown now moves to the House of Representatives, where Speaker Mike Johnson said he hopes to pass it as soon as possible — possibly on Wednesday — before sending it to President Trump for his signature.

Francesco Pesole, currency strategist at ING, said: “There won’t be a clear market direction in the coming days. The likelihood of the government reopening reduces the growth impact of the shutdown, but the resumption of US data releases carries non-trivial downside risks for the dollar.”

He added: “We believe markets are underestimating the negative risks facing the US labor market and short-term rates — and thus the dollar — through year-end.” The euro was little changed at $1.1555.

Thierry Wizman, global FX and rates strategist at Macquarie Group, said: “The bottom line is that ending the shutdown will help avoid a sharper slowdown in GDP growth and corporate earnings.”

Pound Falls, Yen Under Pressure

The British pound fell 0.40% to $1.3126 after data showed a significant slowdown in the UK labor market during the third quarter.

The dollar rose 0.10% to 154.28 yen after touching 154.495 — its highest level since February.

The yen came under renewed pressure after new Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi urged policymakers to delay further interest-rate hikes, while US officials have grown more cautious about additional rate cuts.

Meanwhile, the US dollar slipped 0.25% to $0.6520 against the Australian dollar, ending a two-day winning streak.

The Swiss franc, meanwhile, was on track for a fourth consecutive daily gain after President Trump said the US was working with Switzerland on an agreement to reduce the 39% tariff. The franc rose 0.15% to 0.8035.

Silver prices rose in European trading on Tuesday, extending gains for the fifth consecutive session and reaching a three-week high, supported by the broader rally in precious metals amid growing expectations of another Federal Reserve rate cut in December.

However, gains were limited by continued strength in the US dollar across foreign-exchange markets, following the Senate’s approval of a preliminary agreement to end the longest government shutdown in US history.

Price Overview

• Silver prices rose 1.3% to $51.15 an ounce — the highest since October 21 — from an opening level of $50.50, after hitting an intraday low of $50.41.

• On Monday, silver settled 4.5% higher, marking its fourth straight daily gain and its biggest one-day rise since October 13, supported by strong safe-haven demand.

US Interest Rates

• Federal Reserve Governor Steven Miran said Monday that a 50-basis-point rate cut would be appropriate for December, noting that inflation is falling while unemployment is rising.

• According to CME Group’s FedWatch tool, markets currently price in a 63% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut in December and a 37% chance of rates remaining unchanged.

• Investors are closely monitoring comments from Fed officials ahead of the expected resumption of key US economic data releases starting Thursday.

US Dollar

The US Dollar Index rose 0.15% on Tuesday, maintaining gains for a second straight session and reflecting continued strength in the greenback against a basket of major global currencies.

The dollar’s rise comes as markets anticipate an imminent end to the US government shutdown, after the Senate passed a deal late Monday to restore federal funding and conclude the record-long closure.

The agreement now moves to the House of Representatives, where Speaker Mike Johnson said he aims to approve it on Wednesday and send it to President Donald Trump for signature into law.

Gold prices rose in European trading on Tuesday, extending gains for the third consecutive session and reaching a three-week high, supported by strong investment demand for the precious metal as a safe-haven asset, especially amid expectations of a potential US interest-rate cut in December.

However, gains were capped by the continued strength of the US dollar in foreign-exchange markets, following the Senate’s approval of a preliminary agreement to end the longest government shutdown in US history.

Price Overview

• Gold prices rose 0.8% to $4,149.02 an ounce — the highest since October 23 — from an opening level of $4,115.06, after touching an intraday low of $4,114.94.

• On Monday, gold settled 2.9% higher, marking its second consecutive daily gain and the largest single-day rise since October 16, boosted by active demand for the metal.

US Dollar

The US Dollar Index rose 0.15% on Tuesday, holding gains for a second straight session and reflecting continued strength in the greenback against a basket of global currencies.

The dollar’s rise came as markets anticipated an imminent end to the US government shutdown, after the Senate on Monday evening passed an agreement to restore federal funding and conclude the record-long closure.

The bill now moves to the House of Representatives, where Speaker Mike Johnson said he aims to approve it on Wednesday and send it to President Donald Trump for signature into law.

US Interest Rates

• A survey released Friday showed that US consumer confidence fell to its lowest level in nearly three and a half years in early November, amid concerns over the economic impact of the prolonged government shutdown.

• Federal Reserve Governor Steven Miran said Monday that a 50-basis-point rate cut would be appropriate for December, noting that inflation is easing while unemployment continues to rise.

• According to CME Group’s FedWatch tool, markets currently price in a 63% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut in December and a 37% chance of rates remaining unchanged.

• To reassess these expectations, investors are closely monitoring comments from Fed officials, with government data releases expected to resume as early as Thursday.

Outlook for Gold

Market strategist Ilya Spivak said the perception that the government shutdown is nearing its end has been interpreted as a removal of one layer of uncertainty, giving markets permission to return to one of this year’s dominant speculative narratives.

He added that the broader trend for the remainder of the year remains upward and that, at this stage, the path of least resistance for gold appears to be a return to its October high — with potential for further gains beyond that level.

SPDR Holdings

Holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, were unchanged on Monday at 1,042.06 metric tons — the highest level since October 24.