Oil prices showed little change on Monday, as concerns over developments in Russia and the Middle East balanced with worries tied to oversupply.

Brent crude futures, which have traded between about $65.50 and $69 per barrel since early August, fell by 12 cents or 0.2% to $66.56 a barrel by 10:00 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude for October delivery slipped 3 cents or 0.1% to $62.65 a barrel.

The October WTI contract expires on Monday, while the more active November contract fell 18 cents or 0.3% to $62.22 a barrel.

The Polish armed forces, a NATO member, said Polish and allied aircraft were deployed early Saturday to secure the country’s airspace after Russia carried out airstrikes targeting western Ukraine near the Polish border.

The deployment followed an incident on Friday when three Russian military aircraft violated the airspace of NATO member Estonia for 12 minutes.

In the Middle East, four Western countries recognized a Palestinian state, prompting an angry response from Israel and adding to concerns in the oil-rich region.

Brent and WTI had ended Friday’s session down more than 1%, posting a slight weekly decline under pressure from ample supplies and weakening demand.

Analysts at SEB Bank said: “The current state of the oil market indicates that global demand for oil will fall from the third quarter to the fourth, and again into the first quarter of 2026. At the same time, OPEC+ production is on an upward path.”

They added: “The big question, of course, is whether China will absorb the growing surplus into storage, or if oil prices will fall into the $50s range. We favor the latter scenario.”

Iraq’s state oil marketer SOMO said the country, OPEC’s second-largest producer, has raised oil exports under the OPEC+ agreement.

SOMO expects September exports to average between 3.4 and 3.45 million barrels per day.

Baghdad has also given preliminary approval to a plan to resume oil exports via pipeline from the semi-autonomous Kurdistan region through Turkey, after delays to a restart that had been expected, according to sources familiar with the talks cited by Reuters.

Silver prices rose in the European market on Monday to extend gains for the third consecutive day, recording a new 14-year high, on course to surpass the $44 per ounce barrier for the first time since 2011, supported by the current decline in US dollar levels.

This rally is also supported by accelerating demand from retail traders, as the white metal is considered undervalued compared to gold, which continues to register new record highs.

Price Overview

Silver prices today: Silver rose by 1.6% to $43.79, the highest since September 2011, from the opening level of $43.09, with a low of $43.03.

At Friday’s settlement, silver gained 3.4% in its second consecutive daily rise, amid strong demand for the white metal.

Over the past week, silver rose by 2.15% in its fifth consecutive weekly gain.

The US Dollar

The dollar index fell on Monday by 0.25%, retreating from a two-week high at 97.8 points, reflecting lower levels of the US currency against a basket of major and minor currencies.

Beyond correction and profit-taking, US dollar levels remain under pressure from growing expectations of further Federal Reserve interest rate cuts in the period ahead.

A number of Fed officials are scheduled to speak this week, with Chair Jerome Powell set to deliver remarks on Tuesday, as investors closely monitor their comments for clues on the future path of monetary policy. Market focus is also on the release of US core PCE price data on Friday for indications on the pace of further rate cuts.

Retail Demand

As retail traders search for financial assets to hedge against risks linked to the current shift by global central banks toward more accommodative monetary policies, silver is seen as the optimal and most undervalued choice at present.

The current rally in silver prices reflects growing recognition among retail traders that the white metal remains far from its fair value compared to gold, which continues to post new historic highs.

The US dollar rose slightly on Monday as traders awaited a series of speeches by Federal Reserve officials throughout the week, which could provide additional signals regarding the outlook for US interest rates after the central bank resumed its easing cycle last week.

The dollar moved near the levels seen before the Fed’s latest decision. Analysts said current pricing aligns with the central bank’s messages, which highlighted mounting concerns about the labor market as a key driver of monetary policy.

US economic data last week showed a decline in new jobless claims, reversing the jump recorded in the previous week.

Bob Savage, head of macroeconomic strategy for markets at BNY Mellon, said: “The absence of major economic data until the release of the core PCE price index on Friday leaves investors poised to reconsider the path of rate cuts and plans ahead.”

He added: “Fed officials’ speeches will be extremely important, with more than 18 events scheduled,” pointing to Fed Chair Jerome Powell, Cleveland Fed’s Beth Hammack, and St. Louis Fed’s Alberto Musalem, given their hawkish stance before the last Fed meeting.

New Fed governor Steven Miran defended himself on Friday as an independent policymaker after opposing the consensus in favor of a larger 50-basis-point cut, pledging to provide detailed arguments for his position in a speech on Monday.

Analysts noted that Miran’s lone dissent was a calculated step by the rest of the FOMC members to show unity behind Powell and reinforce the institution’s independence.

Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump criticized the Fed, urging the central bank to cut interest rates more aggressively.

The dollar had slipped slightly after recovering last week when the Fed signaled no rush to ease policy further in the coming months. The dollar rose 0.05% to 97.66 against a basket of currencies.

The euro held steady at $1.1748. The Swedish krona fell 0.10% to 9.4140 against the dollar ahead of the Riksbank’s policy meeting on Tuesday.

Giada Giani, chief economist at Citi, said: “If a rate cut is approved, it is likely to be the last one in this cycle for the Riksbank.”

The yen slipped 0.10% to 148.06 against the dollar, trimming last week’s gains fueled by the Bank of Japan’s hawkish tone, which had raised speculation of a near-term hike.

The pound fell to a two-week low at $1.3453, pressured by domestic headwinds after a surge in UK public borrowing and the Bank of England’s decision, which underscored the challenge policymakers face in balancing growth and inflation.

Jane Foley, head of FX strategy at Rabobank, said: “We have postponed our expectations for the next move to 2026. However, since this has largely been priced in already, and with sterling focus on the UK fiscal outlook, we still see the pound under pressure through the autumn and potentially beyond.”

In other markets, the Australian dollar fell 0.17% to $0.6575, its lowest since September 8.

The Chinese yuan edged up to 7.1136 against the dollar, supported by easing trade tensions between Beijing and Washington, and China’s decision to leave benchmark lending rates unchanged.

Gold prices rose in the European market on Monday, extending gains for the second consecutive day to reach an all-time high, moving toward the $3,800 per ounce barrier for the first time in history, supported by the decline of the US dollar in the foreign exchange market.

This comes amid growing expectations of a more accommodative path for US interest rate cuts, especially after the latest signals from the Federal Reserve, while investors this week await more decisive evidence that could shape the outlook for US monetary policy in the period ahead.

Price Overview

• Gold prices today: Gold rose by 1.1% to ($3,726.68), an all-time high, from the opening level at ($3,685.05), recording a low at ($3,683.93).

• At Friday’s settlement, gold gained 1.1%, its first rise in three days, driven by buying activity from corrective levels.

• Last week, gold rose by 1.2%, marking a fifth consecutive weekly gain, its longest winning streak since late 2024, supported by strong demand for the metal as the best alternative investment.

US Dollar

The dollar index fell on Monday by about 0.15%, retreating from a two-week high at 97.8 points, reflecting a decline in US currency levels against a basket of major and minor counterparts.

Beyond profit-taking and correction activity, US dollar levels are pressured by growing expectations of further Fed rate cuts in the coming period.

US Interest Rates

• The Federal Reserve carried out its first interest rate cut since December, lowering by 25 basis points last week, signaling openness to further easing.

• The Fed’s median projections point to additional rate cuts of 50 basis points in 2025.

• The median expectations of Fed members show the bank moving toward one 25-basis-point cut in 2026, with a similar cut expected in 2027.

• According to the CME FedWatch tool: the pricing of a 25-basis-point Fed rate cut in the October meeting is currently steady at 92%, while the probability of holding rates unchanged stands at 8%.

• Several Fed officials are scheduled to speak this week, with Chair Jerome Powell set to give remarks on Tuesday, as investors closely monitor their comments for clues on the future direction of monetary policy.

• The market is also focused on the release of the US core PCE price index on Friday for indications on the pace of further rate cuts.

Gold Outlook

Giovanni Staunovo, analyst at UBS, said: I expect gold to reach new record levels this week, with the possibility that Fed officials may signal further interest rate cuts.

Staunovo added: The pace and size of potential US interest rate cuts will depend heavily on the economic data scheduled for release in the US starting this week.

SPDR Fund

Gold holdings at SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold-backed ETF, increased on Friday by 18.9 metric tons, the biggest daily rise since March 21, raising the total to 994.56 metric tons, the highest level since August 12, 2022.