Oil rallies to one-week high amid geopolitical tensions
Oil prices rushed higher on Thursday to a one-week peak and resumed gains amid mounting geopolitical tensions worldwide.
That overshadowed concerns about a supply glut in the US after a surge in crude inventories last week, while output reached record highs.
Prices
US crude rose 1.9% today to $72.30 a barrel, with a session-low at $70.96.
Brent rose 1.5% today to $76.50 a barrel, with a session-low at $75.13.
On Wednesday, US crude lost 0.4%, while Brent slipped 0.5%, the first loss in three days after US inventory data.
Geopolitical Tensions
The United States said it has evidence that North Korea sent 3000 soldiers to Russia to possibly participate in the Ukrainian war, in what would be an escalation in Russia’s conflict with the west.
And in the Middle East, an intense gunfire between Israel and Hezbollah was reported today, raising concerns about a deterioration in the conflict and a potential widening of its scope.
Simultaneously, Israel launched strikes against the Syrian capital Damascus earlier on Thursday according to official media reports.
US Stocks
The Energy Information Administration reported a buildup of 5.5 million barrels in US crude stocks last week to 426 million barrels, while analysts expected a build of 0.9 million barrels.
Gasoline stocks rose 0.9 million barrels to 213.6 million barrels, as distillate stocks fell by 1.1 million barrels to 113.8 million barrels.
US Production
The EIA reported no changes in US output last week at 13.5 million bpd, already a record high for the world’s largest oil producer.
Bitcoin moves in a positive zone before important US data
Bitcoin gained ground on Thursday and moved in a positive zone once more after a three-day hiatus from gains, with prices approaching three-month highs once more as US 10-year treasury yields stall.
The gains come ahead of important US data later today that will shed light on the health of the US economy in the fourth quarter of the year.
The Price
Bitcoin rose 1.4% at Bitstamp today to $67,524, with a session-low at $66455.
Bitcoin fell 1.2% on Wednesday, marking the third loss in a row amid profit-taking away from three-month highs at $69487.
Crypto Market Value
The market value of cryptocurrencies rose by over $25 billion today to $2.420 trillion, as both bitcoin and ethereum rebound.
US Yields
US 10-year treasury yields fell 1.5% on Thursday away from three-month highs at 4.260%, and about to mark the first loss in four sessions, in turn pressuring the greenback.
The developments in the US bonds market come as investors await more clues on the Federal Reserve’s future policy moves and interest rate decisions.
US Rates
According to the Fedwatch tool, the odds of a 0.25% Fed interest rate cut in November stood at 93%, while the odds of no change in policies stood at 7%.
Now investors await important US manufacturing, services, and unemployment claims data for October.
US Elections
A new poll by Reuters-Iposos showed Kamala Harris ahead by a 46-43% margin against Donald Trump in a presidential election tie-up.
Trump is viewed as more supportive of cryptocurrencies and more lenient with their regulations.
US dollar gives up three-month high on profit-taking
The US dollar fell in European trade on Thursday against a basket of major rivals away from three-month highs, on track for the first loss in four days amid active profit-taking as US 10-year treasury yields stall.
Now investors await a batch of important US data later today that will shed light on the health of the US economy in the fourth quarter of the year.
The Index
The dollar index fell 0.3% today to 104.13, with a session-high at 104.45.
The index rose 0.35% on Wednesday, marking the third profit in a row, and hitting three-month highs at 104.57.
US Yields
US 10-year treasury yields fell 1.5% on Thursday away from three-month highs at 4.260%, and about to mark the first loss in four sessions, in turn pressuring the greenback.
The developments in the US bonds market come as investors await more clues on the Federal Reserve’s future policy moves and interest rate decisions.
US Rates
According to the Fedwatch tool, the odds of a 0.25% Fed interest rate cut in November stood at 93%, while the odds of no change in policies stood at 7%.
Now investors await important US manufacturing, services, and unemployment claims data for October.
US unemployment claims are expected up slightly to 243 thousand in the week ending October 19, from 241K in the previous reading.
The US manufacturing PMI is expected up to 47.5 in October from 47.3, while the services PMI is expected down to 55.0 from 55.2 in the previous reading.
Gold advances once more towards record highs
Gold prices rose in European trade on Thursday, resuming gains after a short hiatus and approaching record highs as both the dollar and US yields stalled.
The gains come before important US data, which will shed light on the health of the US economy in the fourth quarter of the year.
Prices
Gold prices rose 0.8% today to $2737 an ounce, with a session-low at $2715.
On Wednesday, gold prices lost 1.2%, marking the heftiest loss since August 5, amid active profit-taking away from recent record highs at $2758.
The Dollar
The dollar index fell 0.3% on Thursday, about to mark the first loss in four days and giving up three-month highs at 104.57 against a basket of major rivals.
US Yields
US 10-year treasury yields fell 1.4% on Thursday, giving up three-month highs at 4.192% and boosting non-yielding assets such as gold.
US Rates
According to the Fedwatch tool, the odds of a 0.25% Fed interest rate cut in November stood at 93%, while the odds of no change in policies stood at 7%.
Now investors await important US manufacturing, services, and unemployment claims data for October.
SPDR
Gold holdings at the SPDR Gold Trust fell 1.44 tons yesterday to a total of 893.8 tonnes, away from an August 14, 2023 high at 895.24 tons.