Oil prices surged by 5% on Thursday after the United States imposed new sanctions on Russian energy giants Rosneft and Lukoil over the war in Ukraine, extending the gains recorded in the previous session.

Brent crude futures rose by $3.39, or 5.4%, to $65.98 a barrel at 10:18 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) gained $3.31, or 5.7%, to $61.81 a barrel.

Ole Hansen, an analyst at Saxo Bank, said the US sanctions mean that refineries in China and India — the largest buyers of Russian oil — will now have to seek alternative suppliers to avoid being cut off from the Western banking system.

Washington reaffirmed its readiness to take further action, urging Moscow to agree immediately to a ceasefire in Ukraine. The UK had already imposed sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil last week, while the European Union approved its nineteenth sanctions package against Russia, which included a ban on imports of Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG).

Market Structure Shift and US Inventory Drop

The Brent crude forward curve shifted into backwardation, with the front-month contract trading $1.98 above the six-month delivery contract, reflecting tightening short-term supplies.

Following the announcement of US sanctions, Brent and WTI futures both jumped more than $2 a barrel, also supported by an unexpected drawdown in US crude inventories.

Giovanni Staunovo, an analyst at UBS, said the impact of the sanctions on oil markets depends largely on India’s response and whether Russia can find new buyers for its crude.

India has become the largest importer of discounted Russian oil since the start of the war in Ukraine, but private refiners are expected to sharply reduce purchases under the new sanctions, according to industry sources.

Sources added that Reliance Industries, India’s biggest buyer of Russian crude, plans to significantly scale back — or even halt — its Russian oil imports in the coming period.

Lingering Doubts Despite the Rally

Some analysts remain skeptical that the new sanctions will bring about a lasting shift in the oil market. Claudio Galimberti, an analyst at Rystad Energy, said: “So far, most of the sanctions imposed on Russia for more than three and a half years have failed to meaningfully curb its oil production or revenues.”

He added that concerns over potential oversupply — due to increased output from the OPEC+ alliance — continue to cap price gains, while UBS expects Brent to remain within a $60–70 per barrel trading range.

On the demand side, data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday showed that US crude, gasoline, and distillate inventories declined last week amid improved refinery activity and stronger domestic consumption.

The US dollar strengthened against most major currencies on Thursday, particularly the Japanese yen, as investors awaited the delayed release of key US inflation data (CPI) scheduled for Friday, amid ongoing concerns over trade tensions between Washington and Beijing.

The dollar rose 0.38% against the yen to ¥152.44, while the euro slipped slightly to $1.1604, remaining within its recent trading range.

Nick Rees, head of macro research at Monex Europe, said: “There’s a lot of uncertainty given the US government shutdown and the lack of data. Some traders are holding back, and there’s a clear sense of caution ahead of the inflation figures.”

He added that the CPI report will still be published despite the shutdown, allowing the US Social Security Administration to calculate its annual cost-of-living adjustment for 2026.

Fed Shifts Focus

Although the Federal Reserve has recently shifted its focus from inflation to the performance of the US labor market, inflation figures remain closely watched by markets.

Rees explained: “The data this time are important for different reasons than usual. While the Fed has moved past the inflation phase, these numbers still offer valuable insight into consumer spending and overall economic growth.”

Yen Under Pressure

Domestic factors have also weighed on the yen, which once again approached its seven-month low of ¥153.29 per dollar, last seen earlier in the week after the ruling party elected Sanae Takaichi — known for her expansionary fiscal and monetary stance — as its new leader.

With Takaichi now formally in office as Japan’s first female prime minister, investors are awaiting details of the anticipated stimulus package before taking new positions in the market.

Yutaka Miura, senior technical analyst at Mizuho Securities, said: “Buying based on hopes for Takaichi’s economic policies has run its course. The market is now in a phase of evaluating how feasible those policies will actually be.”

Sterling, Norwegian Krone, and Swiss Franc

The British pound held steady at $1.335 after recovering from Wednesday’s decline that followed weaker-than-expected inflation data, which increased market bets on another Bank of England rate cut later this year.

In Europe, Scandinavian currencies attracted attention as the Norwegian krone strengthened on higher oil prices. The dollar fell 0.3% against the krone to 9.9949, dipping below the 10-krone mark for the first time in two weeks, while the euro slid to a one-month low at 11.58 krone.

The Swiss franc showed little reaction to the release of the Swiss National Bank’s first-ever meeting minutes, easing slightly to 0.797 per dollar and 0.9248 per euro.

Despite the mild decline, the franc remains close to the 0.92 level against the euro — a threshold that Olivier Korber, derivatives strategist at Société Générale, said could prompt the SNB to intervene in the market to weaken the currency.

Korber noted in a research memo: “We believe the risk of intervention in the FX market is currently at its peak, so a near-term rebound in the EUR/CHF pair is quite possible.”

Gold prices fell in European trading on Thursday, extending losses for a third consecutive session and nearing a two-week low, with the metal at risk of losing its foothold above the $4,000 per-ounce mark due to the continued strength of the US dollar in foreign-exchange markets.

Investors are awaiting key US inflation data, scheduled for release later this week, for further clues about the path of interest rates.

Price Overview

• Today’s gold price: Spot gold fell 0.8% to $4,066.24, down from an opening level of $4,098.19, after reaching an intraday high of $4,129.66.

• On Wednesday, gold lost 0.65% for a second straight daily decline, touching a two-week low at $4,004.56 per ounce.

• The metal has entered a sharp correction phase after Tuesday’s plunge, which marked its biggest one-day drop in five years, as heavy profit-taking followed record highs near $4,381.73 per ounce.

US Dollar

The US dollar index rose more than 0.2% on Thursday, resuming gains after a brief pause the previous session, reflecting continued strength of the greenback against major and minor currencies.

A stronger dollar makes gold, which is priced in US dollars, less attractive to buyers holding other currencies. The dollar’s rise comes as investors continue to view it as the most appealing asset at the moment, particularly amid growing expectations that major central banks in the UK, Japan, Canada, and Australia will shift toward more accommodative policies to support their slowing economies.

US Interest Rates

• According to CME’s FedWatch tool, markets are currently pricing in a 97% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the Federal Reserve’s October meeting, with just a 3% chance of no change.

• To reassess these probabilities, investors are closely watching the release of US consumer inflation data for September, expected Friday, though publication could be delayed to next week.

Outlook for Gold

Brian Lan, managing director at Singapore-based Gold Silver Central, said: “We’ve seen a natural correction after the recent rally in gold prices, and there is still some downward pressure. We expect prices to consolidate before continuing their upward trend.”

Lan added: “At this stage, we remain optimistic about gold in the long term, but short-term investors should be cautious given the elevated volatility.”

SPDR Gold Trust Holdings

Holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, fell by 6.29 metric tons on Wednesday to 1,052.37 metric tons, down from 1,058.66 metric tons — the highest level since June 24, 2022.

The euro fell in European trading on Thursday against a basket of global currencies, resuming losses that had paused temporarily on Wednesday against the US dollar, and moving close to a two-week low amid renewed trade tensions between the United States and China — tensions expected to weigh on global trade and economic growth.

With inflationary pressures resurfacing for European Central Bank policymakers, expectations for further rate cuts in the euro area this year have diminished. Investors now await additional economic data and remarks from ECB officials to reassess those probabilities.

Price Overview

• Today’s euro rate: The euro declined 0.2% against the dollar to $1.1591, down from an opening level of $1.1610, after reaching an intraday high of $1.1614.

• On Wednesday, the euro gained about 0.1% versus the dollar — its first increase in four sessions — after earlier hitting a two-week low of $1.1577.

US Dollar

The US dollar index rose more than 0.2% on Thursday, resuming its advance after a brief pause in the previous session, reflecting continued strength of the American currency against major and minor peers.

The dollar’s gains came as investors focused on it as the most attractive asset in the current market environment, particularly amid growing expectations that major central banks in the UK, Japan, Canada, and Australia will adopt more accommodative monetary policies to support their slowing economies.

Trade Tensions

Reuters reported Wednesday that the Trump administration is considering imposing restrictions on a broad range of software-based exports to China — from laptop computers to aircraft engines — in response to Beijing’s latest round of curbs on rare-earth metal exports.

Kyle Rodda, senior financial-markets analyst at Capital.com, said: “Trade tensions remain the main driver of market volatility, but it’s fair to say that most participants expect these threats not to fully materialize. They are seen more as brinkmanship and a tactic to push negotiations forward.”

European Interest Rates

• Money-market pricing currently assigns less than a 10% probability that the European Central Bank will cut rates by 25 basis points in October.

• Traders have scaled back bets on additional monetary easing, suggesting that this year’s ECB rate-cutting cycle has effectively ended.

• To reassess these expectations, investors are watching for upcoming European economic data and further commentary from ECB officials.