Oil prices steadied on Monday after falling more than 4% last week, as investors awaited the upcoming talks between the United States and Russia later this week regarding the war in Ukraine.

Brent crude futures rose 5 cents to $66.64 a barrel by 10:03 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures fell by 1 cent to $63.87 a barrel.

US President Donald Trump said on Friday he would meet Russian President Vladimir Putin on August 15 in Alaska to negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine.

The talks follow increased US pressure on Russia, raising the likelihood of tougher sanctions on Moscow if a peace agreement is not reached. Trump had set a deadline last Friday for Russia — which invaded Ukraine in February 2022 — to agree to peace or face secondary sanctions targeting its oil buyers. At the same time, Washington is pressing India to reduce its purchases of Russian oil.

Prices have fallen in recent days after market participants lowered their estimates of supply disruptions, likely because the United States imposed additional tariffs only on India, rather than on all buyers of Russian oil, according to Giovanni Staunovo, an analyst at UBS.

UBS cut its year-end Brent price forecast to $62 a barrel from $68, citing increased supplies from South America and continued strong output from sanctioned countries. The bank added that Indian demand had recently fallen short of expectations and said it expects the OPEC+ alliance to halt production increases unless there are larger and unexpected supply disruptions.

Exxon Mobil said on Friday that a consortium it leads began crude oil production four months ahead of schedule at the fourth floating production, storage, and offloading (FPSO) unit in Guyana.

Energy Aspects consultancy estimated that Indian refiners have already purchased a total of 5 million barrels of US WTI crude for August-loading shipments.

Silver prices lost nearly 2% in the European market on Monday at the start of the week, retreating from a two-week high due to profit-taking and correction, amid slowing investment demand for safe-haven assets as optimism grew over the success of US–Russia talks to end the war in Ukraine.

The decline in silver prices came despite the US dollar’s weak performance in the foreign exchange market, under pressure from strong expectations of at least two US interest rate cuts before the end of this year.

Price Overview

• Today’s silver prices: Silver fell by about 2.0% to $37.61, down from the opening level of $38.36, after hitting an intraday high of $38.38.

• On Friday’s settlement, silver gained about 0.25%, marking its sixth consecutive daily rise, and reached a two-week high of $38.51 per ounce on Thursday.

• Last week, silver rose 3.6%, posting its first weekly gain in a month, supported by a weaker US dollar amid a series of weak economic data releases in the United States.

US–Russia Negotiations

As part of diplomatic efforts to end the war in Ukraine, US President Donald Trump announced on Friday that he will meet Russian President Vladimir Putin on August 15 in Alaska to discuss ways to reach a peace agreement to end the ongoing military conflict.

This move comes within a series of intensive US–Russia negotiations aimed at finding a final resolution to the crisis, amid international anticipation over the success of these efforts.

US Dollar

The US dollar index fell by more than 0.2% on Monday, nearing a two-week low of 97.95 points, reflecting a decline in the US currency’s value against a basket of major and minor counterparts.

Attention remained focused on trade talks as the August 12 deadline set by Trump to reach an agreement between the United States and China approached.

US Interest Rates

• According to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool: the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the September meeting is currently priced at around 88%, while the chance of no change is at 12%.

• The probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the October meeting is currently at 96%, with a 4% chance of no change.

• To reassess these expectations, investors this week are awaiting the release of key US inflation data, which, along with labor market figures, will guide the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decisions.

The US dollar was largely steady on Monday, ahead of Tuesday’s deadline for Washington and Beijing to reach an agreement on tariffs, as markets also awaited a key US inflation report that could help determine whether the Federal Reserve will cut borrowing costs next month.

The dollar index edged down less than 0.1% to 98.164, after falling 0.4% last week. Against the yen, the US currency traded at 147.39 yen, down 0.2%. Japanese markets were closed on Monday for the “Mountain Day” holiday.

The euro rose less than 0.1% to $1.1652, while the British pound was flat at $1.3462.

The dollar remains under pressure as investors adjusted their expectations for Fed rate cuts following weak US jobs and manufacturing data.

Fed officials have expressed growing concern over the labor market, signaling openness to cutting rates as soon as September.

A slowdown in inflation could strengthen bets on a rate cut next month, but signs that President Donald Trump’s tariffs are fueling higher prices might prompt the Fed to keep policy unchanged for now.

Francesco Pesole, currency strategist at ING, said: “It’s important to note before tomorrow’s data that the threshold for a hawkish surprise is now higher,” adding that a 0.3% month-on-month increase in the core Consumer Price Index would still give the Fed room to cut rates, given the deterioration in the labor market.

Economists polled by Reuters expect the core CPI to have risen 0.3% in July, pushing the annual rate up to 3%.

Money markets are pricing in about a 90% chance of a rate cut next month, with a total of 58 basis points in cuts expected by year-end — implying two quarter-point moves — and roughly one-third odds of a third cut.

Potential changes in Fed leadership have also influenced the dollar recently, as Trump prepares to appoint policymakers aligned with his dovish stance, including a new Fed chair when Jerome Powell’s term ends in May.

Trade negotiations remained in focus, with the August 12 deadline set by Trump to reach a US–China deal approaching, particularly regarding chip policy.

Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone in Melbourne, said: “The market has fully priced in the likelihood of an extension,” predicting a new 90-day truce.

As part of efforts to reach an agreement and avoid imposing tariffs of several hundred percent on goods, a US official told Reuters that chipmakers Nvidia and AMD have agreed to allocate 15% of their China sales revenue to the US government in exchange for semiconductor export licenses.

Weston added: “I don’t know if that’s good or bad, but if it leads to a resolution, it wouldn’t be a bad outcome,” noting that “if it means Trump asks for 15% and then we close the matter, it might not be too bad.”

The offshore yuan fluctuated between gains and losses, last trading at 7.1854 per dollar, after weekend data showed China’s producer prices fell more than expected in July, while consumer prices remained unchanged.

The Australian dollar held at $0.6520 ahead of Tuesday’s central bank decision, where a 25-basis-point cut to 3.60% is widely expected after weaker-than-forecast second-quarter inflation and unemployment hitting its highest level in three and a half years.

Cryptocurrencies surged, with Bitcoin climbing to $122,308, nearing its July 14 record of $123,153.22, after Trump signed an executive order on Thursday allowing cryptocurrencies to be included in US retirement accounts.

Ethereum also jumped to $4,346, its highest level since December 2021.

Gold prices lost more than 1% in the European market on Monday at the start of the week, hitting their lowest level in about a week and moving away from a two-week high due to correction and profit-taking, alongside weaker demand for the precious metal as a safe haven amid intensive talks between the United States and Russia to end the war in Ukraine.

The decline in gold prices comes despite the US dollar falling to a two-week low, pressured by strong expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at least twice before the end of this year.

To reprice those expectations, investors this week are awaiting the release of key US inflation data for July, which will show the extent to which higher tariffs have affected domestic prices.

Price Overview

• Gold prices today: Gold fell by about 1.2% to $3,357.06, the lowest since August 5, from the opening level of $3,398.13, with a high of $3,405.26.

• At Friday’s close, gold prices rose by less than 0.1%, marking a second consecutive daily gain, and reached a two-week high of $3,409.10 an ounce.

• Last week, gold prices rose by 1.0%, the second consecutive weekly gain, supported by a weaker US dollar amid a series of weak US economic data releases.

US–Russia Talks

As part of diplomatic efforts to end the war in Ukraine, US President Donald Trump announced on Friday that he will meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin on August 15 in Alaska to discuss ways to reach a peace agreement to end the ongoing military conflict in Ukraine. This step comes within a series of US–Russia talks aimed at finding a negotiated solution to the crisis, amid international anticipation over the success of these efforts.

US Dollar

The US dollar index fell by more than 0.2% on Monday, nearing a two-week low of 97.95 points, reflecting the dollar’s decline against a basket of major and minor currencies.

Attention was focused on trade talks as the August 12 deadline set by Trump to reach an agreement between the United States and China approached.

US Interest Rates

• According to CME Group’s FedWatch tool: The probability of a 25-basis-point US interest rate cut at the September meeting is currently priced at around 88%, with a 12% probability of no change.

• The probability of a 25-basis-point cut at the October meeting is currently priced at 96%, with a 4% probability of no change.

• To reprice these expectations, investors this week are awaiting key US inflation data, which, along with labor market figures, the Federal Reserve will use to shape its monetary policy tools.

Gold Outlook

• Matt Simpson, Senior Analyst at City Index, said: “The easing of geopolitical tensions surrounding the war in Ukraine has further pressured gold, following Friday’s announcement that President Donald Trump will meet Vladimir Putin on US soil.”

• Simpson added: “Positive data could further boost the US dollar and limit gold’s gains, although I expect overall support to remain as investors look to take advantage of the dips.”

SPDR Fund

Gold holdings at SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, rose by about 0.55 metric tonnes on Friday, marking a second consecutive daily increase, to a total of 959.64 metric tonnes — the highest level since September 16, 2022.