Oil prices were largely steady on Tuesday after the US and China extended a pause on higher tariffs, easing fears that an escalation of their trade war would hurt oil consumption.

Brent crude futures fell 2 cents to $66.61 a barrel by 09:04 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate crude futures slipped 10 cents, or 0.2%, to $63.86.

US President Donald Trump extended the tariff truce with China until November 10, preventing triple-digit tariffs on Chinese goods as American retailers prepare for the critical year-end holiday season.

The move boosted hopes for an agreement between the world’s two largest economies, avoiding an effective trade ban. Tariffs pose a risk to global economic growth, which could reduce fuel demand and pressure oil prices lower.

Oil also found support from fresh signs of weakness in the US labor market, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in September, according to Priyanka Sachdeva, senior market analyst at brokerage Phillip Nova.

Investors are also awaiting US inflation data due later today, which could shape the Fed’s rate-setting path. Interest rate cuts typically stimulate economic activity and boost oil demand.

Potential downside risks for the oil market include the upcoming meeting between Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska on Friday to discuss ending the war in Ukraine.

The meeting comes as the US steps up pressure on Russia, threatening tougher sanctions on buyers of Russian oil such as China and India if no peace deal is reached.

Trump had set a deadline of last Friday for Russia to agree to peace in Ukraine or face secondary sanctions on its oil buyers, while also pressing India and China to reduce purchases of Russian crude.

In a note, Commerzbank said: “If Friday’s meeting results in progress toward a ceasefire or even a peace deal in Ukraine, Trump may suspend the secondary tariffs imposed on India last week before they take effect in two weeks. If not, we could see harsher sanctions on other buyers of Russian oil, such as China.”

Gold prices rose in the European market on Tuesday in an attempt to recoup some of the losses from the previous session, as the market absorbed US President Donald Trump’s decision not to impose tariffs on imported gold bullion.

These gains were limited, however, by the continued rise of the US dollar in the foreign exchange market ahead of the release of key US inflation data, which is expected to provide fresh pricing for the likelihood of US interest rate cuts later this year.

Price Overview

• Gold prices today: Gold rose by about 0.5% to $3,358.23, from the opening level of $3,342.55, and recorded a low of $3,342.32.

• At Monday’s settlement, gold prices lost 1.6%, marking the first decline in three weeks, as correction and profit-taking accelerated from the two-week high of $3,409.10 per ounce.

• Beyond profit-taking, gold recorded its biggest daily loss since May 14, pressured by the rise in the dollar and the denial of tariffs on bullion.

Tariffs on Gold Bullion

President Donald Trump stated on Monday that no tariffs would be imposed on imported gold bullion, easing market tensions.

US gold futures for December delivery hit an all-time high late last week after the Financial Times reported that the United States had imposed tariffs on one-kilogram gold imports, citing a letter from US Customs and Border Protection.

US Dollar

The US Dollar Index rose on Tuesday by less than 0.1%, maintaining gains for the third consecutive day, reflecting continued strength in the US currency against a basket of global currencies.

President Trump extended the suspension of tariffs on goods and products imported from China for an additional 90 days, until early November, in a move aimed at easing trade tensions between Washington and Beijing.

As the US and China work toward a new trade agreement, a US official told Reuters that chipmakers Nvidia and AMD had agreed to allocate 15% of their China sales revenue to the US government to secure export licenses for semiconductors.

US Interest Rates

• According to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool: the probability of a 25-basis-point US interest rate cut at the September meeting is currently priced at around 85%, with a 15% probability of rates remaining unchanged.

• The probability of a 25-basis-point cut at the October meeting is currently at 94%, with a 6% probability of no change.

US Inflation Data

To reprice the above probabilities, traders are awaiting the release later today of key US inflation data for July, which is expected to have a significant impact on the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy path.

At 13:30 GMT, the headline Consumer Price Index is expected to rise by 2.8% year-on-year in July, up from a 2.7% increase in June, while the core CPI is expected to rise by 3.0% year-on-year, compared with a 2.9% increase the previous month.

Outlook for Gold

• Kelvin Wong, market analyst for Asia-Pacific at OANDA, said: “Market participants will now definitely focus on the upcoming rate cut from the Federal Reserve, which is almost fully priced in for September.”

• Wong added: “If we start to see core CPI data coming in slightly below expectations, it could further support expectations for a rate cut, which may reduce the cost of holding gold and support higher prices.”

SPDR Fund

Gold holdings at SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, rose by about 4.58 metric tons on Monday, marking the third consecutive daily increase, bringing the total to 964.22 metric tons — the highest since September 12, 2022.

The British pound fell in the European market on Tuesday against a basket of global currencies, extending its losses for a second consecutive day against the US dollar and moving away from a three-week high, as correction and profit-taking continued, alongside risk aversion ahead of the UK labor market data release.

The US currency continues to trade in positive territory after the extension of the US-China trade truce for 90 days and ahead of key July inflation data from the world’s largest economy.

Price Overview

• The pound fell against the dollar by 0.1% to $1.3424, from an opening level of $1.3434, recording a high of $1.3440.

• On Monday, the pound lost 0.15% against the dollar, marking its first daily loss in the past seven sessions, due to correction and profit-taking after hitting an earlier three-week high of $1.3477.

UK Interest Rates

• Following last week’s hawkish Bank of England meeting, traders reduced their bets on rate cuts, now expecting an additional 17 basis points of easing this year.

• The probability of a 25 basis point BoE rate cut in the September meeting is currently priced below 25%.

UK Labor Market

The upcoming UK labor market report, due later today, is equally important for the pound as it is expected to provide more signs of a slowdown in the jobs market.

There are ongoing indications that Rachel Reeves’ jobs tax is weighing on the labor market, likely leading to more job losses.

Traders are also facing challenges with unreliable UK labor market survey data, as some survey components are now deemed inaccurate.

A weak jobs report would further support the case for the Bank of England that the economic downturn is unfolding, warranting additional interest rate cuts.

With forex markets once again focusing on relative interest rates, an acceleration in BoE rate cuts would weigh on the pound.

US Dollar

The US dollar index rose slightly by less than 0.1% on Tuesday, maintaining its gains for the third consecutive day, reflecting continued strength of the US currency against a basket of major peers.

President Donald Trump extended the suspension of tariffs on Chinese imports for another 90 days until early November, in a move aimed at easing trade tensions between Washington and Beijing, reducing uncertainty and supporting investor risk appetite.

As the US and China work toward a new trade deal, a US official told Reuters that Nvidia and AMD agreed to allocate 15% of Chinese sales revenue to the US government to secure semiconductor export licenses.

According to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool, markets currently price an 85% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, with a 15% chance of no change.

Investors later today await key US July inflation data, which will reveal the extent to which higher tariffs have impacted prices and how much inflationary pressure policymakers at the Fed are facing.

Pound Outlook

We here at Economies.com expect that if UK labor market data is less aggressive than markets anticipate, the likelihood of a September BoE rate cut will rise, leading to further declines in the pound.

At the conclusion of its August 12 meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia’s Monetary Policy Committee decided on Tuesday morning to cut interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 3.60%, the lowest level since April 2023, in line with market expectations.