Oil prices resume gains with eyes on nuclear talks
Global oil prices rose aggressively once more on Thursday in European trade, approaching three-week highs as markets look forward to the new round of US-Iran nuclear talks.
The prices remain under pressure as some OPEC+ members proposed another steep production hike in June for the second month in a row.
Prices
US crude rose 1.3% today to $63.06 a barrel, with a session-low at $62.14.
Brent added 1.4% to $67.05 a barrel, with a session-low at $66.05.
On Wednesday, US crude lost 2% away from three-week high at $64.83, while Brent shed 2.5% away from April 4 highs at $68.61.
Nuclear Talks
Iran and the US will hold the third round of talks by the end of this week for a potential agreement on restricting Iran’s nuclear program.
Any progress in talks would be taken as a sign of a potential lessening of US sanctions on Iranian crude exports, which would increase supplies.
US President Trump’s administration issued new sanctions targeting Iranian oil exports, including sanctions on Chinese refineries, raising the pressure on Tehran amid talks on Iran’s nuclear program.
Potential Trade Deal
Trump asserted the US goal of reaching a fair trade deal with China, however, he once more threatened new tariffs on Beijing if no deal is reached.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Trump didn’t propose to unilaterally remove tariffs from China, asserting the US will not cut tariffs on China by over 100%.
Bessent said there’s no clear timeline for communications between both sides, with the process of complete trade rebalancing potentially taking two or three years.
Reports also indicated that Trump is considering tariff relief for Chinese auto parts under pressure from the US auto industry.
OPEC+
Reuters reported that several OPEC+ members are proposing a production hike in June for the second month in a row, which would pressure prices even further.
US dollar resumes losses under pressure from trade risks
The US dollar fell in European trade on Thursday against a basket of major rivals, resuming losses after a two-day hiatus and approaching three-month lows once more under pressure from US-China trade war concerns.
Trade tensions remain between both sides amid mixed signals from US President Donald Trump on his plans for the China tariffs.
The Index
The dollar index fell 0.55% today to 99.25, with a session-high at 99.84.
On Wednesday, the index rose 0.7%, the second profit in a row away from three-year lows at 97.92.
The index also rose after positive remarks by Trump on China and Jerome Powell.
Mixed Signals
Trump asserted the US goal of reaching a fair trade deal with China, however, he once more threatened new tariffs on Beijing if no deal is reached.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Trump didn’t propose to unilaterally remove tariffs from China, asserting the US will not cut tariffs on China by over 100%.
Bessent said there’s no clear timeline for communications between both sides, with the process of complete trade rebalancing potentially taking two or three years.
The markets are beginning to see the Trump’s administration’s sensitivity towards the performance of the financial markets, with decisions such pausing reciprocal tariffs and backing off plans to sack Fed Chair Powell as reflections of such considerations.
US Rates
Chicago Fed President Austin Goolsbey said he hopes the US won’t turn into an environment where the Fed’s ability to set monetary policies independently from political pressure is undermined.
According to the Fedwatch tool, the odds of a May Fed 0.25% rate cut stood at 7%.
The odds of such a cut in June stood at 62%.
Gold rebounds as dollar stalls
Gold prices rose in European trade on Thursday, resuming gains after a two-day hiatus as the price collected profits off recent record highs, with today’s advance bolstered by renewed haven demand as the dollar stalls.
US-China trade tensions remain a point of worry amid mixed signals from US President Donald Trump on his plans for the China tariffs.
The Price
Gold prices rose 2.4% today to $3367 an ounce, with a session-low at $3288.
On Wednesday, gold lost 2.75%, the biggest loss in 2025 on profit-taking away from a record high at $3500.
Gold was also pressured by a strong dollar rebound after positive remarks from Trump on Jerome Powell and China.
The US Dollar
The dollar index fell 0.25% today against a basket of major rivals following two days of gains and recovery.
Trump asserted the US goal of reaching a fair trade deal with China, however, he once more threatened new tariffs on Beijing if no deal is reached.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Trump didn’t propose to unilaterally remove tariffs from China, asserting the US will not cut tariffs on China by over 100%.
Bessent said there’s no clear timeline for communications between both sides, with the process of complete trade rebalancing potentially taking two or three years.
The markets are beginning to see the Trump’s administration’s sensitivity towards the performance of the financial markets, with decisions such pausing reciprocal tariffs and backing off plans to sack Fed Chair Powell as reflections of such considerations.
US Rates
Chicago Fed President Austin Goolsbey said he hopes the US won’t turn into an environment where the Fed’s ability to set monetary policies independently from political pressure is undermined.
According to the Fedwatch tool, the odds of a May Fed 0.25% rate cut stood at 7%.
The odds of such a cut in June stood at 62%.
SPDR
Gold holdings at the SPDR Gold Trust rose 1.44 tons yesterday to a total of 949.14 tons.
Euro tries to regain footing as the dollar faces risks
The euro rose in European trade on Thursday against a basket of major rivals, resuming gains against the dollar after a two-day hiatus and heading once more towards four-year highs as the dollar continues to face risks.
Chief of which are the ongoing US-China trade tensions amid mixed signals from US President Donald Trump on his plans for the China tariffs.
The Price
The EUR/USD price rose 0.4% to $1.1357, with a session-low at $1.1313.
The price fell 0.9% on Wednesday, the second loss in a row on profit-taking away from a four-year nadir at $1.1573.
The euro also lost ground after Trump’s assurances that he won’t sack Fed Chair Jerome Powell, and following grim eurozone services data.
Mixed Signals
Trump asserted the US goal of reaching a fair trade deal with China, however, he once more threatened new tariffs on Beijing if no deal is reached.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Trump didn’t propose to unilaterally remove tariffs from China, asserting the US will not cut tariffs on China by over 100%.
Bessent said there’s no clear timeline for communications between both sides, with the process of complete trade rebalancing potentially taking two or three years.
The markets are beginning to see the Trump’s administration’s sensitivity towards the performance of the financial markets, with decisions such pausing reciprocal tariffs and backing off plans to sack Fed Chair Powell as reflections of such considerations.
European Rates
Reports indicated that several European Central Bank governors see a high chance of a rate cut in June.
President of the Deutsche Bundesbank Joachim Nagel said that German recession this year can’t be ruled out.
European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said the impact of tariffs could be seen on the PMI and unemployment numbers.
Lagarde expects the tariffs to have more of a deflationary role on prices rather than inflationary.
Markets are currently pricing in a 60% chance of an ECB interest rate cut in June.