Oil prices steadied on Friday and headed for the second weekly loss in a row as investors expect OPEC+ to raise output in July, and with mounting uncertainty on US tariff policies after recent legal challenges.

Brent futures fell 18 cents, or 0.28% to $63.97 a barrel, while US West Texas fell 18 cents, or 0.3% to $60.76 a barrel.

Brent July futures end today, while August futures, the most traded now, fell 0.5% to $63.02 a barrel.

At these levels, prices are heading for a weekly loss surpassing 1%.

OPEC+ Considers Production Hike

Oil prices took a hit after a Reuters report indicated OPEC+ plans to raise July output by over 411 thousand bpd.

JPMorgan’a analysts said that global oversupplies rose to 2.2 million bpd, which led to a price adjustment  to reflect market conditions.

The analysts expect prices to remain near current levels in the short term, before falling gradually to the high 50s by the year end.

US Tariffs Cast Shadows

US reciprocal tariffs were given a stay by the appeals court, revoking an earlier suspension order by a US federal court. 

Such developments hammered Brent prices once more, which have already lost over 10% since Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs on April 2nd.

Prices faced even more pressure after earlier US data showed personal consumption slowed down in April, potentially reflecting weakness in local energy demand.

Bitcoin lost ground below $105,000 on Friday before a modest recovery to $105,795, still down 1.9% so far today, and nearly 3.8% down from the recent record high.

Bitcoin’s market value fell by 1.92% to $2.1 trillion, while trading volumes surged 16.28% to $58.84 billion, reflecting intensive selling pressures.

Winners and Losers

Ethereum is down 3.94% so far today to $2621, but remains above the $2600 psychological barrier, with the market value down 3.9% to $316 billion.

The biggest crypto winners today include DeXe, which surged 14%, followed by SPX6900, which rose 3%.

The biggest losers include: 

Uniswap with a 14% plunge

Optimism which fell 13.3%

Both Pudgy Penguins and Arbitrum fell 13%

Pepe and Pyth Network both lost over 11%

Analysts note that the crypto market continues to suffer as bulls remain in a negative state, and many of them are liquidating their positions.

Macro Pressures from US-China trade, inflation concerns 

The crypto market is hurt by cloudiness on US-China trade negotiations and the legal dispute around US tariffs in recent days.

Bitcoin hit a nine-day low at $104,725 and below the 50 and 200-day SMA, indicating mounting short-term pressures.

Other pressures include higher than expected US unemployment claims data and a 0.2% US GDP contraction in the first quarter, raising concerns and caution.

Strong Institutional Demand 

Despite the ongoing losses, analysts point to the persistent strength of institutional demand, with an influx of $6.22 billion into bitcoin ETFs in the US during May.

However, it’s quite possible that bitcoin will continue to collect profits and solidify its position, sending the price towards the crucial barrier of $100,000.

Technical Indicators Point to Weak Momentum 

The RSI index reading came at 54 and is heading towards the 50 neutral barrier, showing the disappearance of positive momentum.

The MACD index also showed repeated negative signals, reinforcing the outlook of a negative correction in the short term.

The US dollar declined on Friday on track for the fifth monthly drop in a row amid persistent uncertainty on US fiscal and trade policies.

The dollar had a turbulent week after the US appeals court reinstated Trump’s tariffs after a single day of a trade court’s order to suspend them.

Trump said he hopes the Supreme Court will outright revoke the trade court’s decision, with officials indicating they’ll use other presidential powers to ensure the implementation of tariff policies.

Investors Flee US Assets

Extreme uncertainty about US tariffs pressured the markets heavily in recent weeks with investors fleeing US assets in search for calmer and safer alternatives. 

Analysts believe the US is starting to lose its “exceptionalism” status among investors worldwide, leading to an exodus of cash.

Euro and Franc Snag Gains

The euro fell 0.4% today to $1.1325, after mixed inflation data from German states.

However, the dollar is still heading for a monthly decline against the euro, the pound, and the franc.

Recent US unemployment claims and growth data failed to calm concerns about a potential US recession, with investors awaiting the Fed’s favorite Personal Consumption Expenditures report to gather more clues.

Persistent concerns about debt in advanced economies hurt demand on long-term government bonds in both the US and Japan in particular. 

Dollar Marks Longest Losing Streak Since 2017

The dollar index rose 0.3% against a basket of major rivals to 99.58, but is still down 0.10% in May, on track for the fifth monthly decline in a row.

Emerging currencies on the other hand are surging by an average of 2% according to the emerging currencies index, the best such performance since November 2023.

The yen settled at 143.93 against the dollar after data showed main Tokyo inflation hit a two-year peak in May, boosting the odds of a Bank of Japan rate hike soon.

US Inflation Outlook

The PCE index is expected to show a 2.2% increase last month, down slightly from 2.3% in March.

The index is crucial in determining the Federal Reserve’s policy decisions this year as officials assess the impact of tariffs.

Gold prices fell in European trade on Friday, resuming losses and trading once more above $3300 under pressure from the stronger dollar against a basket of major rivals.

Now investors await the US consumer consumption expenditure report later today, expected to provide important clues on the future path of Fed rate cuts.

Prices

Gold prices fell 0.9% today to $3287 an ounce, with a session-high at $3322.

On Thursday, gold rose 0.9%, the first profit in four days as the US appeals court stayed Trump’s reciprocal tariffs.

US Dollar

The dollar index rose 0.4% on Friday, resuming gains against a basket of major rivals.

A stronger dollar makes the greenback-denominated gold futures costlier to holders of other currencies.

It comes after a week of strong US data, which reduced concerns about a US recession this year.

US Rates

San Francisco Fed President Mary Dale said on Thursday that policymakers are still capable of delivering two rate cuts this year, but inflation must remain stable near the 2% target.

According to the Fedwatch tool, the odds of a 0.25% June interest rate cut stood at 2%, while the odds of a July rate cut stood at 25%.

Markets now expect 50 basis points of total rate cuts by the end of the year, starting October.

 SPDR

Gold holdings at the SPDR Gold Trust rose 4.59 tons yesterday to a total of 930.20 tons, the highest since May 13.