Oil holds steady as rising OPEC+ output offsets fears of Russian supply disruption

Oil prices held steady on Tuesday as traders weighed increased supply from the OPEC+ alliance and concerns over weakening global demand, against threats by US President Donald Trump targeting India’s purchases of Russian oil.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, collectively known as OPEC+, agreed on Sunday to raise oil production by 547,000 barrels per day for September, effectively ending the latest round of output cuts earlier than previously planned.

Brent crude futures fell by 36 cents, or 0.5%, to $68.40 a barrel by 09:10 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures dropped 41 cents to $65.88. Both contracts had declined by more than 1% on Monday, settling at their lowest levels in a week.

On Monday, Trump renewed his threats to impose higher tariffs on Indian goods over the country’s continued imports of Russian oil. New Delhi called his comments "unjustified" and vowed to defend its economic interests, escalating trade tensions between the two countries.

John Evans of oil brokerage PVM wrote in a report that the limited reaction in oil prices following Trump’s threats suggests traders are skeptical about actual supply disruptions. He questioned whether Trump would risk pushing oil prices higher.

Giovanni Staunovo, analyst at UBS, commented: “The oil market can be described as stable,” adding, “this situation is likely to persist until we see what the US president announces about Russia later this week and how buyers respond.”

India remains the largest buyer of seaborne Russian oil, having imported around 1.75 million barrels per day between January and June this year — a 1% increase compared to the same period last year, according to data provided by traders to Reuters.

Trump’s threats come amid renewed concerns over global oil demand, with some analysts expecting a slowdown in economic growth during the second half of the year.

JPMorgan said on Tuesday that US recession risks remain elevated. Analysts also noted that the July meeting of China’s Communist Party Politburo showed a shift in focus toward structural rebalancing of the world’s second-largest economy, with no signs of further policy easing.