Oil prices declined sharply on Wednesday, driven by market optimism over the United States and Iran nearing an agreement to end the conflict that caused the largest energy supply disruption in history.

Brent crude futures, the global benchmark, fell about 6% to $103.23 per barrel by 8:19 a.m. Eastern Time, after prices earlier in the session dropped below $100. US West Texas Intermediate crude futures also declined about 7% to $95.22 per barrel.

Two US officials and two informed sources told Axios that the White House believes it is close to reaching a one-page memorandum of understanding containing 14 points aimed at ending the war and establishing a framework for more detailed nuclear talks.

However, US President Donald Trump expressed doubts on Wednesday about finalizing the agreement, saying that assuming Iran would accept the proposal might be “a big assumption,” while warning of renewed military strikes if Tehran rejects it.

Trump said in a social media post: “If they do not agree, the bombing will begin, and it will — unfortunately — be at a much higher level and with far greater intensity than before.”

According to the report, Iran is expected to respond to several key points within the next 48 hours, although no agreement has yet been reached, despite sources indicating that this is the closest point the two sides have reached since the outbreak of the war on February 28.

A spokesperson for the Iranian Foreign Ministry told CNBC that Tehran is “evaluating” the US proposal, after previously confirming that it would only accept a “fair” peace agreement.

Trump had announced on Tuesday the temporary suspension of “Project Freedom,” a military operation launched just one day earlier to escort commercial ships through the Strait of Hormuz, pointing to progress achieved in negotiations with Iran.

The US administration explained that around 23,000 sailors aboard ships from 87 countries are stranded in the Arabian Gulf as a result of Iran’s effective closure of the strait.

Warren Patterson, head of commodities strategy at Dutch bank ING, said in a research note that reaching an agreement restoring oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz is critically important.

He added that about 13 million barrels per day of disrupted supplies are currently being compensated through inventories that are declining rapidly, making the market more vulnerable to volatility over time, noting that shrinking inventories would increase oil price fluctuations.

Nicolo Bocchin, co-head of fixed income at Azimut Group, warned that the sharp rise in energy prices has already started to reduce global demand, adding that even if the waterway is reopened, restoring shipping and trade flows to normal could take “many weeks.”

Central Asian countries have become a key channel for Russia’s sanctions-evasion trade, providing “logistical and financial support for transshipment networks” dedicated to securing goods for the Russian war machine, according to findings documented by a monitoring group.

A report titled Russia Sanctions Evasion Research 2025-2026, issued by the Washington-based Center for Global Civil and Political Strategies, stated that “Russia has demonstrated significant adaptability in reducing the operational impact of Western sanctions,” adding that Central Asia represents “a critical backdoor route” for Russian imports.

The report confirmed that flows of “certain” goods listed under the Joint High Priority List, which includes components such as capacitors and transceivers alongside ball bearings and machine tools, increased in 2025 from Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan to Russia.

It added that Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan “benefit from open borders with Russia under the Eurasian Economic Union, removing customs scrutiny on intra-bloc trade.” According to the report, Western-made dual-use electronics, microchips, and communications equipment are imported into Kazakhstan or Kyrgyzstan as civilian goods, then legally re-exported to Russia under local trade codes.

Although Central Asian governments deny helping Russia circumvent sanctions, the figures present a more complex picture. In Kazakhstan’s case, exports of priority goods to Russia surged by more than 400% in 2022, indicating the existence of “an organized circumvention mechanism supported by shared infrastructure and limited oversight.” However, these exports have declined sharply over the past two years, while several Kazakh entities have been subjected to Western sanctions.

The report concluded that the Kazakh government is not systematically complicit, but noted that Astana’s membership in the Eurasian Economic Union and its long border with Russia “create structural loopholes that circumvention networks can exploit.”

Kyrgyzstan, meanwhile, has faced scrutiny not only for routing goods to Russia, but also for its role in financing Russian procurement operations by facilitating access to international financial markets. The report described it as “an increasingly prominent node within broader sanctions-evasion networks.”

It added that analysts in 2025 identified cryptocurrency platforms registered in Kyrgyzstan as potential channels for Russia-linked financial flows, with concerns that some of these platforms operate as front entities or substitutes for previously sanctioned platforms within a parallel Eurasian financial network.

In 2025, officials in the United States, the European Union, and the United Kingdom found sufficient evidence of sanctions-evasion activities, leading to sanctions on several Kyrgyz banks, in addition to the cryptocurrency platform “Grinex.” In April, the European Union imposed “anti-circumvention” sanctions on the Kyrgyz government as part of its twentieth sanctions package.

In the Caucasus region, the report stated that Georgia is considered “one of the most prominent high-risk transit and re-export points,” while Azerbaijan plays the role of a major logistics hub in the North-South Corridor linking Russia with Iran, India, and other regions.

The report recommended that Western sanctions enforcement mechanisms strengthen monitoring resources at “geographic chokepoints” linked to circumvention activities, including Central Asia.

It also called for tighter oversight and targeted sanctions on financial actors facilitating these operations, such as insurers, legal service providers, companies, and financial institutions.

The report concluded by emphasizing that “targeting intermediary service providers can create broader deterrence across sanctions-evasion networks.”

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices recorded new record highs on Wednesday, continuing the strong rally driven by ongoing enthusiasm surrounding artificial intelligence, alongside expectations of a peace agreement between the United States and Iran.

The latest wave of enthusiasm in the AI sector came after Advanced Micro Devices forecast second-quarter revenue above expectations, supported by strong demand for data center chips.

Kevin Gordon, head of macroeconomic and strategy research at Schwab Center for Financial Research, said that the market “cannot escape the state of euphoria surrounding investment in artificial intelligence.”

He added that a prolonged war and higher gasoline prices could pressure spending, but in the absence of clear signs of job losses, the economy remains far from entering a full recession.

The ADP National Employment Report showed that US private sector employment increased by 109,000 jobs in April, marking the largest increase since January 2025.

At the same time, oil prices fell to their lowest levels in two weeks, with Brent crude contracts declining by 6.6%, leading the S&P 500 energy sector index to fall by about 3%. A Pakistani source reported that Washington and Tehran are nearing an agreement on a one-page memorandum of understanding to end the war.

According to a report published by Axios, the memorandum would stipulate ending the conflict and beginning a 30-day negotiation period to reach a detailed agreement that includes reopening the Strait of Hormuz, limiting Iran’s nuclear program, and lifting US sanctions.

The gains in equities reflect increased investor risk appetite, especially as corporate earnings remain strong and hopes for reaching a peace agreement persist. However, some analysts warned against excessive optimism in the absence of clearer signals of actual progress.

Kyle Rodda, senior financial market analyst at Capital.com, said that Wall Street continues to bet that the war in the Middle East will not escalate again and will not disrupt the market rally driven by earnings.

He added that there is a significant risk that if this bet proves wrong, high-risk assets could face a sharp reversal, but noted that signals coming from the United States appear reassuring that it is not seeking renewed escalation.

During trading, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by about 450.72 points, or 0.91%, to 49,744.78 points, while the S&P 500 gained 57.64 points, or 0.79%, to 7,316.86 points, and the Nasdaq Composite climbed 256.35 points, or 1.01%, to 25,582.48 points.

Eight of the 11 major sectors within the S&P 500 posted gains, while the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose by 2.9% to record a new all-time high.

Advanced Micro Devices shares jumped by 16.7%, while rival Intel gained 2.7%. Super Micro Computer shares also rose by 16.6% after strong fourth-quarter revenue and earnings forecasts.

Alphabet shares rose by 1.5%, while Nvidia shares jumped by 4%.

Advancing stocks outnumbered decliners by a ratio of 2.27 to 1 on the New York Stock Exchange, and by 1.54 to 1 on the Nasdaq. The S&P 500 recorded about 36 new 52-week highs against 13 new lows, while the Nasdaq recorded 115 new highs and 50 new lows.

The cryptocurrency market capitalization rose by 0.75% over the past 24 hours to reach $2.69 trillion. The best-performing cryptocurrencies were led by Zcash with a 29% gain, Toncoin with 23%, and Filecoin with 16%. Meanwhile, the weakest performers were Ethereum, down 0.4%, Algorand, down 0.5%, and Basic Attention Token, which fell 4.6%.

Bitcoin is approaching the $81,500 level, continuing its movement within an upward channel and recording its highest levels since February. This positive momentum is attributed to the continued rise in stock market indices, which is boosting investor risk appetite and driving flows toward digital assets.

Bitcoin is also approaching its 200-day moving average, currently near $83,300, where stability above this level would be considered an additional signal of bullish dominance. The first sign of this trend appeared a month ago when prices stabilized above the 50-day moving average. It is likely that as the price approaches the $83,000 level, the market may witness a short-term profit-taking phase.

The performance of alternative cryptocurrencies clearly shows how Bitcoin’s stable growth encourages greater risk appetite. Toncoin had previously risen by about 30%, while Zcash has continued recording daily gains since April 3, climbing 80% during this period. It was also among the first cryptocurrencies to recover from the late-January selloff, reaching levels last seen in November. The $800 level now appears within reach over the coming days.

News background

Tether’s market capitalization increased by about $5.9 billion over the past 60 days, while before March the market had been experiencing declines of around $2 billion per month, indicating fresh capital inflows into the cryptocurrency market.

Morgan Stanley indicated that US banks may eventually be allowed to hold Bitcoin on their balance sheets despite current regulatory restrictions. The bank recently launched a Bitcoin-based exchange-traded investment product and is expected to offer spot cryptocurrency trading through its wealth management platform later this year.

In a related development, Western Union launched its own stablecoin called “USDPT” on the Solana network, which is expected to accelerate transfer operations and move away from traditional banking systems suffering from slow processing.

BitMine also increased its Ethereum reserves to $13 billion after purchasing more than 100,000 units for the third consecutive week, raising its holdings to 5,180,131 units, equivalent to 4.29% of the total supply of the cryptocurrency.

Toncoin jumped by 45% following fee reductions and a network restructuring, after Pavel Durov announced that Telegram would take over management of the cryptocurrency project instead of the current operator, with a pledge to cut fees to one-sixth and transform the currency into a mass-market product.