Oil prices rose on Friday, driven by concerns over potential disruptions to Iranian production, alongside continued uncertainty surrounding oil supplies from Venezuela.

Brent crude futures climbed 50 cents, or 0.8%, to $62.49 a barrel by 13:59 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gained 51 cents, or 0.9%, to $58.27 a barrel.

Both benchmarks posted gains of more than 3% on Thursday after two consecutive sessions of losses. On a weekly basis, Brent is heading for gains of around 3%, while WTI is up about 1.8%.

Oli Hansen, head of commodities strategy at Saxo Bank, said that “protests in Iran appear to be gaining momentum, prompting markets to worry about potential supply disruptions.”

Civil unrest in Iran, a major oil producer in the Middle East, combined with concerns that the war between Russia and Ukraine could spill over into Russian oil exports, has heightened anxiety over global supply conditions.

At the same time, the White House is scheduled to hold a meeting on Friday with oil companies and trading houses to discuss Venezuelan oil export deals.

US President Donald Trump has demanded that Venezuela grant the United States full access to its oil sector, just days after the arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro on Saturday. US officials have confirmed that Washington will take control of Venezuelan oil sales and revenues for an indefinite period.

US oil major Chevron, along with global trading houses such as Vitol and Trafigura and other firms, is competing to strike deals with the US government to market up to 50 million barrels of oil accumulated in storage by Venezuela’s state oil company PDVSA, under a strict oil blockade that has included the seizure of four oil tankers, according to two sources.

Tina Teng, a market analyst at Moomoo ANZ, said that “the market will focus in the coming days on the outcome of these talks to determine how the stored Venezuelan oil will be sold and delivered.”

In Iran, internet monitoring group NetBlocks reported a nationwide internet outage on Thursday, as protests continued in the capital Tehran and major cities such as Mashhad and Isfahan, amid mounting anger over worsening economic conditions.

In a separate development, the Russian military said on Friday it had launched a hypersonic Oreshnik missile at targets inside Ukraine, including energy infrastructure supporting Ukraine’s military-industrial complex, according to a statement from Russia’s defence ministry.

Despite these developments, Haitong Futures noted that global oil inventories are rising, and that surplus supply remains the dominant factor likely to cap gains. The firm added that unless Iran-related risks escalate further, the rebound is likely to remain limited and difficult to sustain.

Bitcoin steadied during Asian trading on Friday after ending the week’s early-year recovery, as markets focused primarily on the upcoming US jobs data in search of clearer signals on the future path of interest rates.

Caution stemming from rising global geopolitical uncertainty also weighed on cryptocurrency prices, with traders largely avoiding high-risk assets.

Bitcoin rose 0.2% to $90,946.4 by 00:34 US Eastern Time (05:34 GMT).

Bitcoin heads for a quiet week amid geopolitical risks

Bitcoin is on track to post modest weekly gains of around 0.4%, after losing the recovery momentum seen at the start of the year, as escalating geopolitical risks curbed investor appetite for cryptocurrencies.

The world’s largest cryptocurrency traded sideways this week after failing to reclaim the $95,000 level.

Heightened global geopolitical risks were a key factor behind Bitcoin’s subdued performance, led by uncertainty surrounding US plans for Venezuela following Washington’s military operation that resulted in the arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro over the weekend.

US President Donald Trump indicated that Washington would take control of Venezuelan oil production in the coming years, although the mechanism for doing so remains unclear.

In Asia, geopolitical tensions also pressured markets, as diplomatic frictions between China and Japan escalated this week after Beijing announced certain economic restrictions on Tokyo. The two countries remain at odds over remarks made by Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi in late 2025 regarding potential military intervention in Taiwan.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs record three straight days of outflows

Rising market caution led US-listed spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds to post three consecutive days of heavy outflows this week.

Data from crypto analytics platform SoSoValue showed that institutional investors withdrew more than $1 billion in total from these funds over the three days ending January 8.

This trend marks a sharp reversal from the inflows seen at the start of the year, alongside the pullback in Bitcoin prices.

Cryptocurrency prices today: altcoins fluctuate ahead of jobs report

Broader cryptocurrency prices remained rangebound on Friday as markets turned cautious ahead of the US nonfarm payrolls report.

December nonfarm payrolls data are due later today, with expectations that the report will provide key signals on labor market conditions and have a direct impact on longer-term expectations for US interest rates.

Ethereum, the world’s second-largest cryptocurrency, rose 0.4% to $3,119.32, while XRP gained 1.2% to $2.1338.

Among other major altcoins, some tokens showed relative strength this week, with XRP among the top performers, posting gains of about 5% on indications of potential supply tightness on major trading platforms.

Solana stood out on Friday, rising 5% and heading for weekly gains of nearly 5%. Cardano added 1.1% and is set for weekly gains of around 1.6%.

Meanwhile, BNB climbed 2% on Friday, bringing its weekly gains to 2.2%.

The dollar edged slightly higher on Friday as markets awaited the release of the US jobs report and prepared for a closely watched ruling by the US Supreme Court on whether President Donald Trump can use emergency powers to impose tariffs.

The December nonfarm payrolls report is expected to clear much of the data distortion caused by last year’s government shutdown, although analysts cautioned that headline figures alone may not be sufficient to clarify the future path of interest rates.

Kathleen Brooks, research director at XTB, said that after a sharp dollar selloff over the past year, the currency still appears oversold, meaning that any upside surprise in today’s jobs data could trigger a strong reaction in the dollar.

The dollar index, which tracks the US currency against a basket of six major peers, fell 9.4% in 2025, marking its largest annual decline since 2017. The index was last up 0.17% at 99.04, after touching its highest level in a month earlier in the session.

Data released on Thursday showed a slight increase in weekly US jobless claims.

Separately, the US Supreme Court is expected to issue a ruling later on whether Trump has the authority to use the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to impose tariffs without congressional approval. Such a decision could significantly disrupt US trade policy and unsettle months of negotiations with trading partners.

If the ruling goes against Trump, corporate executives, customs brokers, and trade lawyers are bracing for potential legal action to recover nearly $150 billion from the United States.

Francesco Pesole, FX strategist at ING, said markets are increasingly pricing in a jobs report strong enough to keep the Federal Reserve on hold for longer, alongside expectations that the Supreme Court will rule against Trump’s tariffs, adding that both factors may provide only limited support for the dollar.

Interest-rate futures imply an 86% probability that the Federal Reserve will leave rates unchanged at its January 27–28 meeting, up from 68% a month ago, according to CME’s FedWatch tool.

The euro slipped 0.13% to $1.1643 after data showed an unexpected decline in German exports in November, driven by weaker shipments to other EU countries and the United States, while industrial production rose against expectations of a decline.

Against the Japanese yen, the dollar extended gains for a fourth consecutive session, reaching its highest level since December 22 and rising 0.45% to 157.57 yen. This followed data showing household spending in Japan grew unexpectedly in November from a year earlier, signaling stronger consumption ahead of the Bank of Japan’s December rate hike to a 30-year high.

Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said the central bank will continue raising borrowing costs if economic conditions and price developments align with its outlook.

The dollar was little changed against the offshore Chinese yuan at 6.9798 after data showed China’s annual consumer inflation accelerated in December to its fastest pace in nearly three years.

However, full-year inflation slowed to its weakest level in 16 years, while producer prices remained in deflation, reinforcing expectations for further stimulus measures to support weak demand.

Elsewhere, sterling slipped to $1.3412, while the Australian and New Zealand dollars came under pressure. The Australian dollar fell 0.25% to $0.6682, while the New Zealand dollar dropped 0.48% to $0.5726, marking a fourth straight session of losses and its lowest level since early December.

In digital asset markets, bitcoin fell 1% to $90,308.05, while ether declined 1.1% to $3,081.79.

Gold prices declined in the European market on Friday, moving into negative territory under pressure from a fresh surge in the US dollar against a basket of global currencies, ahead of the release of new US jobs data, in addition to the possibility of a Supreme Court ruling on Trump’s tariff measures.

Despite the pullback, the precious metal is on track to record its first weekly gain of the new year, supported by safe-haven buying amid escalating global geopolitical tensions.

Price Overview

• Gold prices today: gold fell by 0.55% to $4,453.01, from an opening level of $4,477.86, and recorded a session high at $4,484.19.

• At Thursday’s settlement, the precious metal gained 0.5%, marking a fourth gain in the past five sessions, amid rising global geopolitical tensions.

US Dollar

The US Dollar Index rose by 0.15% on Friday, extending gains for the fourth consecutive session and reaching a four-week high, reflecting continued strength in the US currency against a basket of global currencies.

Data released this week showed an unexpected rebound in US services sector activity in December, along with a slight increase in weekly jobless claims, contrary to market expectations.

These figures indicate that the US economy ended 2025 on solid footing, which may give the Federal Reserve more time to assess its next step toward further interest rate cuts.

As a result, expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut at its meeting later this month declined.

US Interest Rates

• Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran, whose term ends later this month, said on Tuesday that a sharp cut in US interest rates is needed to sustain economic growth.

• Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, a voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee this year, said he sees a risk of a sharp rise in the unemployment rate.

• According to CME Group’s FedWatch tool, pricing for keeping US interest rates unchanged at the January 2026 meeting currently stands at 86%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is priced at 14%.

• Investors are currently pricing in two US interest rate cuts over the course of next year, while Federal Reserve projections point to a single 25 basis point cut.

• To reprice these expectations, investors are closely monitoring further US economic data.

• The US jobs report for December is due later today and is expected to provide strong evidence on the pace of growth in the world’s largest economy during the final quarter of last year, which was heavily impacted by the longest government shutdown in US history.

Supreme Court

The US Supreme Court may issue a ruling later today on whether President Trump can invoke the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose tariffs without congressional approval, a move that could undermine US trade policy and disrupt negotiations with partner countries that have lasted for months.

If the ruling goes against Trump, corporate executives, customs brokers, and trade lawyers could enter legal battles to recover around $150 billion from the US government in previously paid tariffs.

Weekly Trading

Over the course of this week, which officially ends at today’s settlement, gold prices are up by about 2.8%, on track to record the first weekly gain of 2026, supported by strong safe-haven demand amid escalating global geopolitical tensions, especially following the US strike in Venezuela and the arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro.

Gold Outlook

• Independent analyst Ross Norman said gold prices have seen a slight pullback over the past three days due to profit-taking, but the main driver at present is the strength of the US dollar ahead of the nonfarm payrolls data.

• Norman added that many commodity indices are reweighting their exposure to precious metals and gold at the start of the new year, creating some temporary weakness from rebalancing, but overall conditions remain positive.

• HSBC expects gold prices to rise to $5,000 per ounce in the first half of 2026, driven by rising geopolitical risks and debt levels.

SPDR Fund

Holdings of SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold-backed ETF, were unchanged for the second consecutive day yesterday, keeping total holdings steady at 1,067.13 metric tons.