Oil prices rose slightly on Thursday, supported by easing concerns over a potential global supply glut, as the impact of sanctions on Russian energy companies began to emerge.

After ending the previous session at a two-week low, Brent crude futures climbed 35 cents, or 0.6%, to $63.87 a barrel by 11:20 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gained 39 cents, or 0.7%, to $59.99 a barrel.

Analysts said the latest sanctions imposed two weeks ago on Russia’s largest oil firms have sparked some worries about possible supply disruptions, despite ongoing increases in production from OPEC and its allies.

Reuters reported this week that Russian oil giant Lukoil is facing challenges in its overseas operations due to these restrictions.

Jorge Montepeque of Onyx Capital Group said: “There’s a mild effect on prices from the sanctions, but it’s not substantial yet. The numbers suggest it should be stronger, but the market still needs to be convinced that a real impact will materialize.”

October decline and production freeze ease oversupply fears

Global oil prices fell for a third consecutive month in October amid persistent concerns of an oversupplied market, as OPEC and its partners continued to increase output alongside steady production growth from non-OPEC producers.

According to Haitong Securities, OPEC+’s broader plan to halt additional production hikes during the first quarter of next year helped calm fears of a surplus.

Weak global demand remains the central concern

Nevertheless, weak global demand for crude remains a key issue.

J.P. Morgan estimates that global oil demand rose by 850,000 barrels per day between the start of the year and November 4 — slightly below earlier expectations of 900,000 barrels per day.

“The high-frequency indicators show that U.S. oil consumption remains soft,” the bank said, citing reduced travel activity and weaker container shipping volumes.

In the previous session, prices declined after data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration revealed that crude inventories rose by 5.2 million barrels to 421.2 million barrels last week.

Further downside pressure expected

Capital Economics noted in a research report: “We expect downward pressure on oil prices to persist, supporting our conservative forecast of $60 a barrel by the end of 2025 and $50 a barrel by the end of 2026.”

Saudi Arabia cuts oil prices to Asia

Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia — the world’s largest crude exporter — sharply reduced its official selling prices to Asia for December, responding to a market awash with supply as OPEC+ production continues to increase.

The Bank of England announced its interest rate decision on Thursday at the conclusion of its November 6 meeting, keeping rates unchanged at 4.00% — the lowest level since February 2023 — in line with market expectations, marking the second consecutive meeting without a change.

•This statement is considered “positive” for the British pound.

Gold prices rose in European trading on Thursday, extending gains for a second consecutive session and moving back above the $4,000 per ounce mark, supported by a weaker U.S. dollar in foreign exchange markets.

The longest government shutdown in U.S. history has deepened uncertainty surrounding the country’s economic outlook, potentially complicating the Federal Reserve’s policy decisions.

Price Overview

• Gold Prices Today: Spot gold rose 0.95% to $4,016.87 per ounce, up from an opening level of $3,980.11, after touching an intraday low of $3,964.63.

• On Wednesday, gold gained 1.2%, marking its first increase in four sessions, as the U.S. dollar halted its recent rally.

U.S. Dollar

The U.S. dollar index fell 0.3% on Thursday, extending losses for a second straight session and retreating from a six-month high, reflecting continued weakness against major and minor currencies.

Beyond profit-taking, the greenback’s decline was driven by concerns over the record-long U.S. government shutdown, which has heightened market uncertainty regarding the nation’s economic trajectory.

With the political impasse in Congress keeping the government closed, both investors and the Federal Reserve have been forced to rely on private-sector indicators for guidance.

U.S. Interest Rates

• According to the CME FedWatch tool, markets currently price a 67% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the Fed’s December meeting, while odds of holding rates steady remain at 33%.

• To reassess those expectations, investors are closely monitoring comments from Federal Reserve officials, given the suspension of official U.S. economic data releases.

Gold Outlook

• Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade, said: “The dollar eased slightly, making it easier for gold to build upward momentum.”

• He added: “Gold managed to rise yesterday despite strong U.S. macro data, as traders remained focused on the fact that the current government shutdown is the longest on record.”

SPDR Fund

Holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, were unchanged on Wednesday, remaining at 1,038.63 metric tons — the lowest level since October 29.

The British pound rose in European trading on Thursday against a basket of global currencies, extending its recovery for a second consecutive session from a seven-month low versus the U.S. dollar, ahead of the Bank of England’s policy decision at the conclusion of its seventh regular meeting of 2025.

Markets widely expect the central bank to keep interest rates unchanged for the second consecutive meeting, while investors look for further clues about the pace and timing of future monetary easing in the United Kingdom.

Price Overview

• GBP/USD: The pound rose 0.15% to 1.3066, up from an opening level of 1.3049, after touching an intraday low of 1.3046.

• On Wednesday, the pound gained 0.25% against the dollar, rebounding from a seven-month low of 1.3010.

• Earlier this week, the currency came under broad pressure after Finance Minister Rachel Reeves outlined the challenging economic conditions facing Britain, citing rising debt levels, weak productivity, and persistently high inflation.

Bank of England

The Bank of England is widely expected to announce on Thursday that it will leave interest rates unchanged at 4.00% — their lowest level since February 2023 — marking a second straight meeting without a change.

The rate decision, policy statement, and voting breakdown will be released at 12:00 GMT, followed by a press conference from Governor Andrew Bailey at 12:30 GMT to discuss the outcome, the state of the inflation battle, and the outlook for interest rates.

Pound Outlook

According to expectations here at Economies.com, if the Bank of England’s statement and Andrew Bailey’s remarks strike a more hawkish tone than markets currently anticipate, the odds of a rate cut in December would likely diminish, paving the way for further recovery in the pound’s value.