Oil drops as investors assess Iranian, Venezuelan supplies

Oil prices fell on Monday after Iran said the situation was “fully under control” following the largest anti-government protests the country has seen in years, easing some concerns over supply disruptions from the OPEC member, as investors also assessed efforts to resume Venezuelan oil exports.

Brent crude futures slipped 15 cents, or 0.2%, to $63.19 per barrel by 12:48 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate crude fell 19 cents, or 0.3%, to $58.93 per barrel.

Giovanni Staunovo, analyst at UBS, said that “the decline in European equity markets and the absence of further supply disruptions are exerting mild pressure on oil prices, following the strong gains seen late last week.”

Both benchmark crudes rose more than 3% last week, marking their largest weekly gains since October, after Iran’s ruling clerical establishment intensified its crackdown on the biggest protests since 2022, even as demonstrations escalated over the weekend.

Trump warns on Iran intervention

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on Monday, in comments translated into English, that the situation in Iran was “fully under control” following widespread protests over the weekend.

US President Donald Trump has warned of possible military intervention in response to the violent suppression of protests in Iran. A human rights group said on Sunday that more than 500 people had been killed during the civil unrest.

Trump is expected to meet senior advisers on Tuesday to discuss options related to Iran, according to a US official.

Despite a risk premium forming in oil prices over recent days, the market continues to downplay the scale of geopolitical risks stemming from a broader conflict with Iran, which could disrupt oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, according to Saul Kavonic, head of energy research at MST Marquee.

“The market is saying: show me actual supply disruption before reacting in a meaningful way,” Kavonic said.

Venezuela prepares to resume oil exports

Venezuela is expected to resume oil exports soon following the ouster of President Nicolás Maduro, after Trump said last week that the government in Caracas would deliver up to 50 million barrels of sanctioned oil to the United States.

This has triggered a race among oil companies to secure tankers and prepare operations to safely load crude from Venezuela’s aging vessels and ports, according to four sources familiar with the matter.

At a White House meeting on Friday, Trafigura said its first tanker is expected to begin loading within the coming week.

Investors are also monitoring risks of supply disruptions from Russia, amid Ukrainian attacks targeting Russian energy infrastructure and the possibility of tougher US sanctions on Russia’s energy sector.

Goldman Sachs said in a note on Sunday that oil prices are likely to trend lower this year as a wave of new supply creates a market surplus, although geopolitical risks linked to Russia, Venezuela, and Iran will remain a key source of price volatility.

The investment bank maintained its 2026 average price forecasts at $56 per barrel for Brent crude and $52 for West Texas Intermediate, and expects prices to bottom at $54 and $50 per barrel, respectively, in the final quarter of the year, as inventories build across OECD countries.