Oil prices rose more than 3% on Thursday, recovering losses from the previous session, as concerns grew over the continuation of the conflict in the Middle East and the potential for further supply disruptions.

Brent crude futures rose by $3.51, or 3.4%, to $105.73 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude increased by $3.04, or 3.4%, to $94.36 per barrel.

Both benchmarks had fallen more than 2% in Wednesday’s session.

Iran’s foreign minister said the country is reviewing a US proposal to end the war but does not intend to enter talks to end the conflict.

Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump warned that the United States would launch more severe strikes against Iran if it does not accept that it has been “militarily defeated,” according to remarks from the White House.

Reports indicated that the US Department of Defense is planning to deploy thousands of airborne troops to the Gulf region, giving Washington additional options for a ground offensive, alongside Marine forces that have already been sent.

Analysts said that continued military escalation, including troop deployments and new strikes, along with restrictions on oil tanker movements, continues to weigh on global energy markets.

Trump’s 15-point plan

The US plan, which was sent via Pakistan, includes provisions such as removing Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium, halting enrichment, limiting its ballistic missile program, and reducing support for its regional allies, according to informed Israeli sources.

The conflict has led to a near halt in shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, which accounts for about one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas supplies, in what the International Energy Agency described as the largest disruption to oil supply ever.

Japan has requested the agency to coordinate the release of additional oil reserves in anticipation of a prolonged crisis.

Additional pressure on supplies

Concerns over global supply have intensified as around 40% of Russia’s oil export capacity has been halted due to Ukrainian drone attacks and tanker detentions.

A Turkish oil tanker was also attacked by a naval drone near the Bosphorus Strait in Istanbul, causing an explosion.

In Iraq, oil production declined sharply as storage facilities filled up and exports were disrupted.

On the other hand, data showed that US crude oil inventories increased by 6.9 million barrels to 456.2 million barrels in the week ending March 20, the highest level since June 2024 and above analysts’ expectations.

Gold prices fell more than 2% in European trading on Thursday, resuming losses that had paused over the past two days, and moving lower toward their lowest level in four months, under pressure from the rise of the US dollar against a basket of global currencies.

This comes amid fading optimism about the possibility of ending the war in the Middle East in the near term, as uncertainty surrounds negotiations between the United States and Iran, a situation that is currently pushing global oil prices higher and renewing concerns about global inflation.

Price Overview

Gold prices today: gold fell 2.1% to $4,412.90, down from the session opening level of $4,506.04, after reaching a high of $4,544.55.

At Wednesday’s settlement, gold rose 0.7%, marking its second consecutive daily gain, as recovery efforts continued from a four-month low of $4,098.23 per ounce.

US dollar

The dollar index rose about 0.2% on Thursday, extending gains for the third consecutive session, reflecting the continued strength of the US currency against a basket of major and minor currencies.

As is widely known, a stronger US dollar makes gold, which is priced in dollars, less attractive to buyers holding other currencies.

The rally comes as investors continue buying the dollar as a preferred safe-haven asset, with the Iran war approaching its fifth week and the difficulty of reaching a ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran.

Global oil prices

Global oil prices rose about 3% on Thursday, extending gains for the second consecutive day, amid renewed concerns over supply disruptions from the Middle East and the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Rising oil prices are likely to renew concerns about accelerating inflation across most parts of the world and increase pressure on policymakers at global central banks to raise interest rates.

Iran war developments

US President Donald Trump said that Iran is making strong efforts to reach an agreement to end nearly four weeks of fighting, contradicting remarks by Iran’s foreign minister, who said the country is reviewing a US proposal but does not intend to hold talks to end the conflict.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said that although there is no dialogue or negotiations with the United States, various messages have been exchanged through intermediaries.

Araghchi added in an interview with state television on Wednesday that conveying messages through friendly countries and clarifying positions or issuing necessary warnings does not constitute negotiations or dialogue.

Trump later said on Wednesday during an event in Washington that Iranian leaders are “negotiating” and are eager to reach a deal, but are reluctant to say so publicly.

The New York Times reported that the United States has sent Iran a plan consisting of 15 key points to end the war in the Middle East.

Sources said a one-month ceasefire will be announced under a mechanism being developed by Witkoff and Kushner, with negotiations on the fifteen points to take place during the ceasefire period.

US interest rates

Amid rising oil prices, and according to the CME FedWatch tool, markets reduced pricing for the probability of keeping US interest rates unchanged at the April meeting from 96% to 93%, while the probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike increased from 4% to 7%.

To reassess these expectations, investors are closely monitoring further economic data releases from the United States, in addition to tracking comments from Federal Reserve officials.

Gold outlook

Rajat Bhattacharya, chief investment strategist at Standard Chartered, said that although gold initially rose due to safe-haven demand at the start of the Iran conflict, prices have recently declined.

Bhattacharya added that this pattern is often repeated during periods of market stress, as investors raise liquidity to meet margin calls or take profits where possible, while the recent strength of the US dollar has also weighed on demand for gold.

SPDR fund

Holdings of the SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, declined by 0.57 metric tons on Wednesday, bringing the total to 1,052.42 metric tons, the lowest level since December 15.

The euro rose in European trading on Thursday against a basket of global currencies, beginning to recover after two days of losses against the US dollar, benefiting from a slowdown in the US currency amid growing optimism over a potential halt in the Iran war.

Following more hawkish comments from the President of the European Central Bank, expectations for at least one interest rate hike this year have increased. To reassess those expectations, markets are awaiting further data on developments in the eurozone economy.

Price Overview

Euro exchange rate today: the euro rose 0.1% against the dollar to $1.1572, up from the session opening level of $1.1558, after hitting a low of $1.1554.

The euro ended Wednesday’s session down 0.4% against the dollar, marking its second consecutive daily loss, after Iran denied entering negotiations with the United States to end the war in the Middle East.

US dollar

The dollar index fell 0.1% on Thursday, marking its first decline in the past three sessions, reflecting a slowdown in the US currency against a basket of global currencies.

This comes as traders assess the likelihood of a halt in the war in the Middle East, amid intensified diplomatic efforts aimed at containing the escalation, with cautious anticipation of any signals that could pave the way for a de-escalation agreement or ceasefire.

Iran war developments

US President Donald Trump said that Iran is making strong efforts to reach an agreement to end nearly four weeks of fighting, contradicting remarks by Iran’s foreign minister, who said the country is reviewing a US proposal but does not intend to hold talks to end the conflict.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said that although there is no dialogue or negotiations with the United States, various messages have been exchanged through intermediaries.

Araghchi added in an interview with state television on Wednesday that conveying messages through friendly countries and clarifying positions or issuing necessary warnings does not constitute negotiations or dialogue.

Trump later said on Wednesday during an event in Washington that Iranian leaders are “negotiating” and are eager to reach a deal, but are reluctant to say so publicly.

The New York Times reported that the United States has sent Iran a plan consisting of 15 key points to end the war in the Middle East.

Sources said a one-month ceasefire will be announced under a mechanism being developed by Witkoff and Kushner, with negotiations on the fifteen points to take place during the ceasefire period.

European interest rates

ECB President Christine Lagarde said on Wednesday that the bank is ready to raise interest rates even if the expected rise in inflation is temporary.

Following those comments, money markets increased pricing for a 25-basis-point rate hike by the European Central Bank at the April meeting from 25% to 35%.

Sources told Reuters that the European Central Bank is likely to begin discussing interest rate hikes next month.

To reassess these expectations, investors are awaiting further economic data from the eurozone on inflation, unemployment, and wage levels.

The Japanese yen rose in Asian trading on Thursday against a basket of major and minor currencies, beginning to recover after two days of losses against the US dollar, benefiting from a slowdown in the US currency, as traders assess the likelihood of a halt in the Iran war.

As inflationary pressures on policymakers at the Bank of Japan ease, expectations for a Japanese interest rate hike in April have declined. To reassess those expectations, investors are awaiting further data on developments in the world’s fourth-largest economy.

Price Overview

Japanese yen exchange rate today: the US dollar fell 0.1% against the yen to ¥159.33, down from the session opening level of ¥159.46, after reaching a high of ¥159.54.

The yen ended Wednesday’s session down 0.5% against the dollar, marking its second consecutive daily loss, amid uncertainty over Iran’s response to a US proposal that includes a one-month ceasefire.

US dollar

The dollar index fell 0.1% on Thursday, marking its first decline in the past three sessions, reflecting a slowdown in the US currency against a basket of global currencies.

This comes as traders assess the likelihood of a halt in the war in the Middle East, amid intensified diplomatic efforts aimed at containing the escalation, with cautious anticipation of any signals that could pave the way for a de-escalation agreement or ceasefire.

Iran war developments

US President Donald Trump said that Iran is making strong efforts to reach an agreement to end nearly four weeks of fighting, contradicting remarks by Iran’s foreign minister, who said the country is reviewing a US proposal but does not intend to hold talks to end the conflict.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said that although there is no dialogue or negotiations with the United States, various messages have been exchanged through intermediaries.

Araghchi added in an interview with state television on Wednesday that conveying messages through friendly countries and clarifying positions or issuing necessary warnings does not constitute negotiations or dialogue.

Trump later said on Wednesday during an event in Washington that Iranian leaders are “negotiating” and are eager to reach a deal, but are reluctant to say so publicly.

The New York Times reported that the United States has sent Iran a plan consisting of 15 key points to end the war in the Middle East.

Sources said a one-month ceasefire will be announced under a mechanism being developed by Witkoff and Kushner, with negotiations on the fifteen points to take place during the ceasefire period.

Japanese interest rates

Data released this week showed a slowdown in core inflation in Japan during February, in the latest sign of easing inflationary pressures on policymakers at the Bank of Japan.

Following the data, markets reduced pricing for the probability of a quarter-point rate hike by the Bank of Japan at the April meeting from 30% to 15%.

To reassess these expectations, investors are awaiting further data on inflation, unemployment, and wages in Japan.