Oil prices rose on Tuesday amid continued disruption to global supply, as Iran denied holding any talks with the United States to end the war in the Gulf, contradicting statements by US President Donald Trump, who said a deal could be near.

Oil contracts had fallen more than 10% on Monday after Trump ordered a five-day delay in attacks on Iranian energy facilities, citing talks with unnamed Iranian officials that resulted in “major points of agreement.”

On Tuesday, however, Brent crude futures rose by $1.83, or 1.8%, to $101.77 per barrel as of 11:30 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate crude gained $2.21, or 2.5%, to $90.34.

The war has led to a near-total disruption of shipments for about one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas supplies through the Strait of Hormuz, causing what the International Energy Agency described as the largest disruption to oil supplies ever.

Nikos Tzabouras, an analyst at Tradu, a platform owned by Jefferies, said: “The reality on the ground has not changed. The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, and supply disruptions continue, leading to tighter market conditions.”

In a field development, Iran launched waves of missiles toward Israel on Tuesday. Three senior Israeli officials — who requested anonymity — were quoted as saying that Trump appears determined to reach a deal, but they see it as unlikely that Iran will agree to US demands in any new round of negotiations.

BCA Research said in a report that “the conflict with Iran is witnessing initial de-escalation, but risks related to the Strait of Hormuz remain,” adding that “with continued risks of attacks and volatile news flow, it is still too early to take strong investment positions betting on lower oil prices.”

Macquarie noted that if the strait remains effectively closed through the end of April, Brent crude could reach $150 per barrel, exceeding its previous record high of $147 recorded in 2008.

In the latest attacks on energy infrastructure in the region, Iran’s Fars News Agency reported that a gas company office and a pressure-reduction station were bombed in the city of Isfahan, while a projectile struck a gas pipeline supplying a power plant in Khorramshahr.

Gold prices fell in European trading on Tuesday, extending their movement in negative territory for the fifth consecutive day and approaching again the lowest levels in four months, under pressure from the rebound of the US dollar in the foreign exchange market.

Uncertainty has increased once again in markets regarding developments in the Middle East war, especially after targeting Iranian energy facilities, in a development that significantly complicates the diplomatic landscape.

Observers believe these US-Israeli airstrikes undermine already fragile “bridges of trust” and make it difficult for Tehran to sit at the negotiating table under direct military pressure.

Price Overview

Gold prices today: gold fell 2.3% to $4,305.97, down from the session opening level of $4,406.67, after reaching a high of $4,448.40.

At Monday’s settlement, gold lost 1.9%, marking its fourth consecutive daily loss, and recorded its lowest level in four months at $4,098.23 per ounce.

Prices had pared losses of around 9% after US President Donald Trump announced talks with Iran and delayed targeting Iranian energy facilities.

US dollar

The dollar index rose on Tuesday, beginning to recover from a two-week low, reflecting a renewed increase in the US currency against a basket of global currencies.

The index had slipped on Monday to its lowest level in two weeks after US President Donald Trump postponed strikes on Iran’s electricity grid, a move that eased concerns about a prolonged war in the Middle East.

Iran war developments

Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform that the United States and Iran had held “very good and productive talks” on a “comprehensive and final resolution” to hostilities in the Middle East.

Trump added that he had instructed the Department of War to postpone all military strikes on Iranian energy facilities and infrastructure for five days.

According to Iranian news agencies, officials denied holding any talks with the United States, with some describing the reports as false and aimed only at calming markets.

Contrary to expectations, US and Israeli air forces launched intensive strikes on some energy facilities in Iran on Tuesday, a development that is expected to escalate military confrontations and prompt Iran’s Revolutionary Guard to carry out missile attacks on energy facilities in Israel and Gulf countries.

US interest rates

According to the CME FedWatch tool, markets are currently pricing a 92% probability that US interest rates will remain unchanged at the April meeting, while the probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike stands at 8%.

To reassess these expectations, investors are closely monitoring further economic data releases from the United States, in addition to tracking comments from Federal Reserve officials.

Gold outlook

Rajat Bhattacharya, chief investment strategist at Standard Chartered, said that although gold initially rose due to safe-haven demand at the start of the Iran conflict, prices have recently declined.

Bhattacharya added that this pattern is often repeated during periods of market stress, as investors raise liquidity to cover margin calls or simply take profits where possible, noting that the recent strength of the dollar has also weighed on gold demand.

SPDR fund

Holdings of the SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, declined by 4.29 metric tons on Monday, marking the eighth consecutive daily decline, bringing the total to 1,052.70 metric tons, the lowest level since December 17.

The euro fell in European trading on Tuesday against a basket of global currencies, retreating from a two-week high against the US dollar amid corrective activity and profit-taking, as demand returned for the US currency as a preferred safe-haven asset, especially after the United States and Israel launched airstrikes on Iranian energy infrastructure.

Targeting Iranian energy facilities has significantly complicated the diplomatic landscape, as observers believe these strikes undermine already fragile “bridges of trust” and make it difficult for Tehran to return to the negotiating table under direct military pressure.

To assess the impact of the Iran war and rising energy prices on economic activity in Europe, markets are awaiting the release of key data on the main industrial and services sectors for March later today.

Price Overview

Euro exchange rate today: the euro fell 0.3% against the dollar to $1.1576, down from the session opening level of $1.1612, after reaching a high of $1.1618.

The euro ended Monday’s session up 0.35% against the dollar, hitting a two-week high of $1.1640 after Donald Trump announced talks with Iran and delayed any military strikes on Iranian energy facilities for five days.

US dollar

The dollar index rose on Tuesday, beginning to recover from a two-week low, reflecting a renewed rise in the US currency against a basket of global currencies.

The index fell on Monday to its lowest level in two weeks after US President Donald Trump postponed strikes on Iran’s electricity grid, a move that eased concerns about a prolonged war in the Middle East.

Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform that the United States and Iran had held “very good and productive talks” on a “comprehensive and final resolution” to hostilities in the Middle East.

Trump added: I have instructed the Department of War to delay all military strikes on Iranian energy facilities and infrastructure for five days.

According to Iranian news agencies, Iranian officials denied holding any talks with the United States, with some describing such reports as false and aimed only at calming markets.

Contrary to expectations, US and Israeli air forces launched intense strikes on some energy facilities in Iran on Tuesday, a move likely to escalate military confrontations and prompt Iran’s Revolutionary Guard to carry out missile attacks on energy facilities in Israel and Gulf countries.

European interest rates

The European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged last week for the sixth consecutive meeting.

Sources told Reuters that the European Central Bank is likely to begin discussing interest rate hikes next month.

Following the meeting, money markets increased pricing for a 25-basis-point rate hike by the European Central Bank at the April meeting from 1% to 25%.

To reassess these expectations, investors are awaiting the release of key data on the main sectors of the European economy for March later today.

The Japanese yen fell in Asian trading on Tuesday against a basket of major and minor currencies, resuming its losses against the US dollar as demand returned for the US currency as a preferred safe-haven asset, especially after the United States and Israel launched airstrikes on Iranian energy infrastructure.

Targeting Iranian energy facilities has significantly complicated the diplomatic landscape, as observers believe these strikes undermine already fragile “bridges of trust” and make it difficult for Tehran to return to the negotiating table under direct military pressure.

The yen is also under pressure from data showing a slowdown in core inflation in Japan in February, indicating easing inflationary pressures on Bank of Japan policymakers and reducing the likelihood of a rate hike in April.

Price Overview

Japanese yen exchange rate today: the US dollar rose 0.25% against the yen to ¥158.79, up from the session opening level of ¥158.41, with a session low of ¥158.26.

The yen ended Monday’s session up 0.5% against the dollar, benefiting from a decline in the US currency after Donald Trump announced talks with Iran and delayed any military strikes on Iranian energy facilities for five days.

US dollar

The dollar index rose on Tuesday, beginning to recover from a two-week low, reflecting a renewed rise in the US currency against a basket of global currencies.

The index fell on Monday to its lowest level in two weeks after US President Donald Trump postponed strikes on Iran’s electricity grid, a move that eased concerns about a prolonged war in the Middle East.

Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform that the United States and Iran had held “very good and productive talks” on a “comprehensive and final resolution” to hostilities in the Middle East.

Trump added: I have instructed the Department of War to delay all military strikes on Iranian energy facilities and infrastructure for five days.

According to Iranian news agencies, Iranian officials denied holding any talks with the United States, with some describing such reports as false and aimed only at calming markets.

Contrary to expectations, US and Israeli air forces launched intense strikes on some energy facilities in Iran on Tuesday, a move likely to escalate military confrontations and prompt Iran’s Revolutionary Guard to carry out missile attacks on energy facilities in Israel and Gulf countries.

Core inflation

Data released in Tokyo on Tuesday showed Japan’s core consumer price index rose 1.6% in February, the slowest pace since March 2022, below market expectations of a 1.7% increase, after rising 2.0% in January.

These figures confirm the continued easing of inflationary pressures on Bank of Japan policymakers, reducing the likelihood of interest rate hikes in the first half of the year.

Japanese interest rates

Following the above data, markets reduced pricing for the probability of a quarter-point rate hike by the Bank of Japan at the April meeting from 30% to 15%.

To reassess these expectations, investors are awaiting further data on inflation, unemployment, and wages in Japan.