Oil prices rose again on Friday after US President Donald Trump renewed his threats against Iran, stoking fears of potential military action that could disrupt crude supplies, while production disruptions in Kazakhstan continued.

Brent crude futures for March delivery climbed 76 cents, or 1.2%, to $64.82 a barrel by 10:26 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate crude rose 75 cents, or 1.3%, to $60.11 a barrel.

Both benchmark contracts were on track to post weekly gains of about 1.1%.

Prices had also risen earlier in the week on the back of Trump’s moves related to Greenland, but fell by around 2% on Thursday after he walked back threats to impose tariffs on Europe and ruled out military action.

Trump said on Thursday that Denmark, NATO, and the United States had reached an agreement granting “full access” to Greenland.

However, he also said the United States had a “fleet” heading toward Iran, expressing hope that it would not have to be used, while renewing warnings to Tehran against killing protesters or restarting its nuclear program.

A US official said warships, including an aircraft carrier and guided-missile destroyers, are set to arrive in the Middle East in the coming days. The United States carried out strikes against Iran in June last year.

Iran is a major supplier of oil to China, the world’s second-largest oil consumer.

Separately, Chevron said oil production at the giant Tengiz field in Kazakhstan, one of the world’s largest oil fields, has not yet resumed. Operator Tengizchevroil, led by Chevron, announced on Monday that production had been halted following a fire.

The US dollar was steady against most major currencies in Friday’s trading, moving within a narrow range and heading toward its largest weekly loss since June.

Dollar selling momentum

More broadly, shifts in the geopolitical landscape weighed on market sentiment this week after US President Donald Trump said he had secured US access to Greenland as part of an agreement with the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, while at the same time backing away from threats to impose tariffs on Europe and ruling out the use of force to seize the self-governing Danish territory.

The dollar bore the brunt of investor anxiety in currency markets after US assets came under heavy pressure earlier in the week amid escalating geopolitical tensions, reviving talk of a “sell America” strategy that first emerged following the sweeping tariffs Trump announced on “Liberation Day” in April.

The dollar index, which measures the US currency against six major peers, stood at 98.31 in the latest trading, little changed on the day. Even so, the index was on track for a weekly decline of about 1%, its largest since June.

The euro slipped about 0.1% to $1.1740, but was heading for a weekly gain of 1.4%, while sterling was steady at $1.35. Data released on Friday showed UK retail sales rose unexpectedly in December, but the figures had little impact on the pound.

Thierry Wizman, global FX and rates strategist at Macquarie Group, said the Greenland agreement may resolve the immediate issue around tariffs and invasion, but it does not address the deeper problem of what appears to be a growing rift between allies.

“This is not a good situation if you want to preserve the status of the US dollar as a global reserve currency,” he added.

The Japanese yen

The Japanese yen strengthened abruptly on Friday, prompting market speculation that Japanese authorities may have conducted what is known as a “rate check,” a step that often precedes intervention in the foreign exchange market, as the dollar headed for its steepest weekly decline since June amid geopolitical tensions that unsettled investors.

In the latest trading, the yen edged higher to 158.05 per dollar.

The yen had weakened to around 159.2 per dollar, close to an 18-month low, during a press conference by Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda following the central bank’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged, before suddenly rebounding to 157.3 per dollar.

Traders are closely watching the risk of Tokyo stepping in to curb yen weakness, although the prevailing view in the market is that authorities did not intervene directly, but instead carried out exchange rate checks with banks.

Jonas Goltermann, deputy chief markets economist at Capital Economics, said: “I do not think this was direct intervention, because it does not match the pattern we have seen during past interventions. Typically, we would see a very sharp downward move in dollar/yen.”

Goltermann also pointed to the possibility that authorities carried out a so-called exchange rate check.

An exchange rate check refers to authorities asking banks about the rate at which they could sell yen, a tool used by Japanese officials to signal readiness to enter the market.

The yen has been under sustained pressure since Sanae Takaichi took office as Japan’s prime minister in October, falling more than 4% amid fiscal concerns and remaining near levels that have triggered verbal warnings and fears of official intervention.

A sharp selloff in the bond market earlier this week highlighted investor unease over Japan’s fiscal outlook after Takaichi called for early elections in February and pledged tax cuts, pushing Japanese government bond yields to record highs. Although yields have partially retraced since then, investor nerves remain frayed.

Gold prices rose in European trading on Friday, extending gains for a fifth consecutive session, continuing to smash record levels and coming very close to breaking above the psychological $5,000-per-ounce threshold for the first time in history.

The precious metal is also approaching its largest weekly gain in six years, amid strong and record safe-haven demand, supported by a weaker US dollar as geopolitical tensions escalate and confidence in US assets continues to erode.

Price Overview

• Gold prices today: Gold rose about 0.65% to $4,967.41 per ounce, marking a new all-time high, from an opening level of $4,935.76, after recording a session low of $4,930.81.

• At Thursday’s settlement, the precious metal gained about 2.25%, posting a fourth consecutive daily advance after breaking above the $4,900 level for the first time in history.

Weekly Trading

Over the course of this week, which officially concludes at today’s settlement, gold prices are up about 8% so far, on track for a third straight weekly gain and the largest weekly increase since March 2020, when the COVID-19 pandemic erupted.

US Dollar

The US dollar index has fallen by more than 1% so far this week, on track to record its worst weekly performance since last June, as the dollar bears the brunt of investor anxiety in currency markets. US assets have seen sharp declines since the start of the week amid intensifying geopolitical tensions.

As is well known, a weaker US dollar makes dollar-priced gold bullion more attractive to buyers holding other currencies.

Renewed tariff threats from US President Donald Trump against European allies have revived what is known as the “Sell America” trade, which first emerged after the so-called Liberation Day tariffs announced in April last year, when US equities, Treasury bonds, and the dollar all declined simultaneously.

Greenland Tensions

Trump said on Sunday that he would impose additional tariffs of 10% starting February 1 on imports from Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Finland, and the United Kingdom, until the United States is allowed to purchase Greenland.

Major European Union countries condemned the tariff threats linked to Greenland, describing them as blackmail, while France proposed responding with a set of unprecedented countereconomic measures.

During the World Economic Forum in Davos, Trump withdrew his threat to impose tariffs on a number of European NATO member states, announcing a framework agreement with NATO regarding control over Greenland.

Trump said on Truth Social: We have put in place a framework for a future agreement on Greenland, and we will not impose the tariffs that were scheduled to take effect on February 1.

Terry Wiseman, global foreign exchange strategist at Macquarie Group, said that while the Greenland agreement resolves the immediate issue of tariffs and invasion, it does not address the deeper underlying problem of the apparent divergence between allies.

US Interest Rates

• Justices of the US Supreme Court expressed skepticism over Trump’s unprecedented attempt to remove Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, in a case that threatens the independence of the central bank.

• According to the FedWatch tool from the CME Group, markets are pricing a 95% probability that US interest rates will remain unchanged at the January 2026 meeting, with the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut standing at 5%.

• Investors are currently pricing two US rate cuts over the course of next year, while Federal Reserve projections point to a single 25-basis-point cut.

• To reprice these expectations, investors are closely monitoring upcoming US economic data. Later today, key data will be released covering the main sectors of the US economy for January.

• The Federal Reserve is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged at its meeting scheduled for January 27–28, despite Trump’s calls for rate cuts.

Gold Outlook

Kyle Rodda, analyst at Capital.com, said that confidence in the United States and its assets has been shaken, possibly on a lasting basis, and this is driving capital toward precious metals. He added that the term “collapse” has become widely used, and he does not believe it is an exaggeration.

On Thursday, Goldman Sachs raised its forecast for gold prices in December 2026 to $5,400 per ounce, up from a previous estimate of $4,900 per ounce.

SPDR Fund

Gold holdings at the SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, rose by about 2.00 metric tons on Thursday, lifting total holdings to 1,079.66 metric tons.

The euro retreated in European trading on Friday against a basket of global currencies, as part of a pause after a strong rise in the previous session against the US dollar. The single currency remains on track to record its biggest weekly gain since last June, driven by escalating global geopolitical tensions surrounding Greenland.

Investors are awaiting the release of key data throughout the day on the main sectors of the European economy for January, which are expected to provide clearer signals about the future path of European Central Bank monetary policy and the direction of interest rates in the euro area.

Price Overview

• Euro exchange rate today: The euro slipped about 0.1% against the dollar to 1.1743, from an opening level of 1.1755, after recording a session high of 1.1759.

• The euro ended Thursday’s session up 0.6% against the dollar, resuming its strong gains that had paused the previous day amid correction and profit-taking from a three-week high of 1.1768.

Weekly Trading

Over the course of this week, which officially concludes at today’s settlement, the single European currency, the euro, is up about 1.3% against the US dollar so far. It is on track to record its first weekly gain in a month, and its largest weekly gain since June 2025.

Greenland Tensions

Trump said on Sunday that he would impose additional tariffs of 10% starting February 1 on imports from Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Finland, and the United Kingdom, until the United States is allowed to purchase Greenland.

Major European Union countries condemned the tariff threats linked to Greenland, describing them as blackmail, while France proposed responding with a set of unprecedented countereconomic measures.

During the World Economic Forum in Davos, Trump withdrew his threat to impose tariffs on a number of European NATO member states, announcing a framework agreement with NATO regarding control over Greenland.

Trump said on Truth Social: We have put in place a framework for a future agreement on Greenland, and we will not impose the tariffs that were scheduled to take effect on February 1.

These geopolitical shifts weighed heavily on market sentiment this week, with the US dollar bearing the brunt of investor anxiety in currency markets, as US assets saw sharp declines.

Terry Wiseman, global foreign exchange strategist at Macquarie Group, said that while the Greenland agreement resolves the immediate issue of tariffs and invasion, it does not address the deeper underlying problem of the apparent divergence between allies.

European Interest Rates

• Recent data released in Europe showed a slowdown in headline inflation during December, indicating easing inflationary pressures on the European Central Bank.

• Following these data, money markets raised pricing for a 25-basis-point European interest rate cut in February from 10% to 25%.

• Traders adjusted expectations from keeping European interest rates unchanged throughout the year to at least one rate cut of 25 basis points.

• To reprice these expectations, investors are closely watching today’s release of key data from the main sectors of the European economy for January.

Euro Outlook

At Economies.com, we expect the euro to move back into positive territory against the US dollar, especially if data from the main sectors come in stronger than currently expected by markets.