OPEC+ meets this week to decide oil production levels for December, marking its first gathering since the United States imposed sanctions on Russia’s two largest oil companies — a move targeting the alliance’s second-biggest producer after Saudi Arabia.

The coalition, which includes OPEC members and allied producers led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, has managed global oil supplies for nearly a decade by curbing output to ensure what it calls “market stability” — a phrase that effectively means supporting prices or preventing a collapse.

Loss of market share

Since the price crash during the COVID-19 pandemic and the brief market-share war that followed, OPEC+ has maintained varying degrees of output cuts. Not all members have agreed to sacrifice revenue and market share.

Two years ago, eight key producers — including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, and Algeria within OPEC, along with Russia, Kazakhstan, and Oman outside it — formed a smaller sub-alliance within OPEC+ to coordinate what became known as “voluntary cuts.”

Yet over the past two years, high oil prices have encouraged strong growth in US shale production, gradually eroding OPEC+’s share of the global market.

By spring 2025, Saudi Arabia appeared increasingly frustrated with the burden of carrying the largest share of these cuts, as both its revenues and market position declined.

In April 2025, the alliance began gradually unwinding its production curbs, announcing cumulative quota increases of 2.7 million barrels per day so far. However, actual output increases have been smaller, as some producers have struggled with capacity constraints or were still compensating for past overproduction.

In early October, OPEC+ maintained its cautious approach, approving a modest 137,000 barrels per day increase for November — a move aimed at preventing price weakness amid softer post-summer demand and expectations of oversupply.

Despite signs of slowdown, the group reiterated that it would continue easing cuts “in light of stable economic forecasts and healthy market fundamentals, as reflected in low inventory levels” — language it has repeated in every statement since April.

The organization continues to emphasize flexibility, reserving the right to pause or reverse any further increases if conditions warrant.

The group will meet on November 2 to finalize December production, and Reuters sources within the alliance indicate that members are leaning toward another small increase of roughly 137,000 barrels per day.

Recovering market share?

Bloomberg Opinion’s Javier Blas argues that Saudi Arabia is unlikely to reverse the recent production increases unless Brent crude falls and stays in the low-$50 range.

If Brent drops to that level, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) would likely fall below $50 per barrel, which would slow US shale output growth — as industry officials say even $60 is insufficient to sustain expansion.

In recent weeks, WTI has hovered in the high-$50 range but climbed above $60 late last week following US sanctions on Russia’s Rosneft and Lukoil, imposed over what Washington described as Moscow’s “lack of seriousness” in ending the war in Ukraine.

Those sanctions are set to take effect on November 21, creating new uncertainty in global supply chains and among major buyers of Russian oil such as India and China.

The unclear impact of the sanctions has added a fresh geopolitical layer to oil pricing, with traders still uncertain how enforcement will unfold and to what extent buyers will comply.

A cautious balance

The recent rebound in prices gives OPEC+ justification to continue unwinding cuts slowly — even symbolically — benefiting mainly Saudi Arabia, which holds the largest spare production capacity.

Analysts expect the alliance to keep adding small monthly increments until the market sees clearer signs of oversupply or until the full impact of US sanctions on Russia becomes evident.

While most analysts and investment banks agree that a supply glut is likely on the horizon, the exact scale remains uncertain — particularly if Russia diverts more crude into the so-called “shadow trade” outside official export channels.

US stock indexes mostly declined on Thursday as investors digested the Federal Reserve’s policy statement and remarks from Chair Jerome Powell, while attention turned to a fresh wave of corporate earnings.

Alphabet, Microsoft, and Meta released their quarterly results on Wednesday, while Apple and Amazon are scheduled to report after Thursday’s closing bell.

The Federal Reserve on Wednesday announced a 25-basis-point cut to the federal funds rate, bringing it down to a range of 3.75%–4.00%.

During his press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell highlighted a “significant division” among policymakers regarding the possibility of another rate cut at the December meeting.

Powell said available data suggest moderate growth in the US economy and confirmed that activity had remained strong prior to the government shutdown.

He also emphasized that a rate cut in December “is not a certainty,” noting that the Fed has not received official government data for four weeks, though existing indicators point to some weakness in the labor market.

As of 16:24 GMT, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.8% (or 365 points) to 47,991, while the S&P 500 slipped 0.2% (or 16 points) to 6,874. The Nasdaq Composite fell 0.8% (or 202 points) to 23,754.

Bitcoin fell on Thursday as traders digested the outcome of the meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, while cautious remarks from the Federal Reserve weighed on market sentiment.

The world’s largest cryptocurrency dropped 2.5% to $110,225.3 by 01:52 a.m. ET (05:52 GMT), erasing most of last week’s gains. Bitcoin also ended October in the red, struggling to recover from the sharp sell-off seen at the start of the month.

Trump praises meeting with Xi, but details remain unclear

Trump described his Thursday meeting with Xi in South Korea as “wonderful and exceptional.”

Speaking to reporters after the talks, Trump said he was close to finalizing a trade agreement with China, noting that Beijing had agreed to deals covering rare-earth supplies and agricultural purchases — two of the most contentious issues between the world’s largest economies.

He also announced that US tariffs on China’s fentanyl-related products would be cut in half, reducing overall tariffs on Chinese goods to 47% from 57%.

While Trump’s positive tone suggested easing tensions, markets remained cautious, awaiting further clarity on the timing and scope of any trade deal.

Although the US–China trade dispute does not directly impact the crypto industry, shifting market sentiment tends to affect digital asset prices — with Bitcoin’s early-October crash largely triggered by renewed trade friction between the two nations.

Reports: Mastercard in talks to acquire crypto firm Zerohash

Fortune magazine reported Wednesday that global payments giant Mastercard (NYSE: MA) is in advanced talks to acquire crypto and stablecoin infrastructure provider Zerohash in a deal valued between $1.5 and $2 billion.

If completed, the acquisition would be one of the largest in Mastercard’s history and signal growing institutional adoption of blockchain technologies.

Interest in stablecoins has surged among traditional financial institutions following the rollout of a clear US regulatory framework for the sector earlier this year.

Altcoins decline as Fed signals caution on December rate cut

Most altcoins tracked Bitcoin lower on Thursday after the Fed struck a cautious tone on the possibility of another rate cut in December.

Ether, the world’s second-largest cryptocurrency, fell 2.7% to $3,915.69, while BNB declined 0.8% to $1,112.40. XRP lost about 2.5%, Solana dipped 0.3%, and Cardano slid 1.1%.

Among meme coins, Dogecoin dropped 1.7%, while the $TRUMP token extended gains of around 5%, boosted by a Bloomberg report that Fight Fight Fight LLC — the token’s developer — is in talks to acquire the US operations of crowdfunding platform Republic.com.

Overall sentiment toward crypto remained weak after the Federal Reserve warned Wednesday that another rate cut in December was “not a given.”

The Fed had lowered rates by 25 basis points as widely expected — its second cut this year — but expressed concerns about persistent inflation and the ongoing US government shutdown, which has limited access to economic data.

Cryptocurrencies generally benefit from lower interest rates, as looser monetary conditions boost liquidity and encourage investment in high-risk assets such as digital tokens.

The European Central Bank (ECB) announced its interest rate decision on Thursday, concluding its October 29–30 meeting. As widely expected, the bank kept rates unchanged at 2.15% — the lowest level since October 2022 — marking the third consecutive meeting without a change.

Policymakers at the ECB believe that no further rate cuts are necessary to achieve the 2% inflation target, emphasizing in recent weeks that the current monetary easing cycle is either nearing completion or has effectively reached its end.