Brent crude futures were little changed on Friday, as investors monitored progress in peace talks between Russia and Ukraine and awaited the outcome of the OPEC+ meeting scheduled for Sunday, looking for signals on potential supply shifts that continue to pressure prices.

Front-month Brent futures — which expire on Friday — were unchanged at $63.34 a barrel by 01:34 GMT in thin trading, after settling 21 cents higher on Thursday. The more active February contract stood at $62.85 a barrel, down two cents.

US West Texas Intermediate crude rose 35 cents, or 0.60%, to $59.00 a barrel. There was no settlement on Thursday due to the US Thanksgiving holiday.

Both benchmarks were heading toward a fourth straight monthly loss, the longest losing streak since 2023, driven by increased global supply that has weighed on prices.

Investors are watching talks on a Washington-led peace deal between Russia and Ukraine that could result in the lifting of Western sanctions on Russian oil, potentially boosting global supply and pushing prices lower.

Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Thursday that the draft peace proposals discussed by the United States and Ukraine could serve as a basis for future agreements to end the conflict in Ukraine, but emphasized that Russia would continue fighting if no accord is reached.

Putin added that US President Donald Trump’s special envoy, Steve Witkoff, plans to visit Moscow early next week.

For his part, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Thursday that delegations from Ukraine and the United States will meet this week to finalize a formula agreed during the Geneva talks to achieve peace and secure security guarantees for Kyiv.

“After several promising starts that failed to materialize, participants are reluctant to take strong positions until there is tangible progress — or a breakdown in the talks,” said IG Markets analyst Tony Sycamore in a note.

OPEC+ meeting expectations

OPEC+ is expected to keep oil production levels unchanged during its meetings on Sunday and agree on a mechanism to assess member countries’ maximum production capacity, according to two delegates from the group and a source familiar with OPEC+ discussions cited by Reuters.

Weekly gains supported by hopes of a US rate cut

Brent and WTI were on track to end the week more than 1% higher, supported by expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates, potentially boosting economic growth and oil demand.

A drop in the number of active US oil rigs to the lowest level in four years this week also provided additional support to prices.

The US dollar headed on Friday toward its worst weekly performance since late July, as traders intensified their bets on further monetary easing by the Federal Reserve next month, while liquidity remained thin due to the Thanksgiving holiday in the United States.

The dollar index — which measures the US currency against a basket of six major peers — was last up 0.1% at 99.624, recovering part of its losses after a five-day decline pushed it to its worst weekly drop since July 21.

Fed funds futures were pricing in an implied 87% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the December 10 policy meeting, compared with 39% a week earlier, according to CME’s FedWatch tool.

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury was up 0.8 basis point at 4.0037%, after a rebound that followed five straight days of declines which had pushed the yield to briefly slip below 4% twice.

The Japanese yen swings as data support tightening

In Asia, the Japanese yen fluctuated between gains and losses after a period of weakness, and was last down 0.1% at 156.385 per dollar, as labor-market and inflation data supported expectations that Japan is moving toward policy tightening, despite the currency’s continued weakness that has increased the likelihood of intervention by the Ministry of Finance.

The yen had briefly strengthened after data showed Tokyo consumer prices rising 2.8% in November, beating economists’ expectations and exceeding the Bank of Japan’s 2% target.

“With the labor market remaining tight and core inflation (excluding fresh food and energy) still above 3% for now, the Bank of Japan will resume its tightening cycle in the coming months. The bottom line is that the case for policy tightening remains intact,” Capital Economics analysts said in a research note.

The yen is on track for a third month of losses, at a time when the government of Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is rolling out a 21.3 trillion-yen ($135.4 billion) stimulus package, while the BOJ continues to hold off on raising interest rates despite inflation exceeding its target.

The euro and sterling hold steady… and attention turns to efforts to end the Ukraine war

The euro held at $1.1600 with little change during Asian trading, after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Thursday that delegations from Ukraine and the United States will meet this week to discuss a formula agreed during the Geneva talks to end the war with Russia and secure safety guarantees for Kyiv.

Sterling dipped 0.1% to $1.323 but was headed for its best weekly performance since early August, after UK Finance Minister Rachel Reeves unveiled plans on Wednesday to raise taxes by £26 billion ($34 billion).

Reeves on Thursday responded to criticism of the spending plans, which would finance additional social-welfare allowances by lifting the tax burden to its highest level since World War II.

Commodity currencies: the Australian dollar, the yuan, and the kiwi

The Australian dollar was trading at $0.6536, up 0.1% in early dealings, after data showed private-sector credit rising 0.7% in October from the previous month, a slight acceleration from the prior reading.

The offshore yuan held at 7.074 per dollar and is on track for its best monthly performance since August.

The New Zealand dollar — the “kiwi” — traded at $0.5725, down 0.1%, after ending its strongest week since late April.

The euro is attempting a modest recovery, with EUR/USD rising to 1.1589 and moving back above its short-term moving averages, offering an early signal of returning bullish momentum. And although the pair remains within a broader consolidation range, momentum indicators have begun to improve — raising the prospect that the euro may be preparing for a breakout attempt in the coming days.

Technical outlook: bullish momentum rebuilding gradually

Price action shows a slight but meaningful shift:

The rise above the 15-day moving average at 1.1574 and the 20-day moving average at 1.1561 signals a short-term bullish turn. The flattening of these averages suggests fading downside momentum and the early formation of a higher low. The 14-day RSI stands at 51.07 and has moved back above the 50 neutral line — often an early sign of improving momentum or a potential trend shift. The pair remains range-bound, but the technical bias has tilted in favor of euro bulls for the first time in weeks.

Fundamental backdrop: improved risk appetite supports the euro

Several factors have helped stabilize EUR/USD:

Euro-positive elements include improving global risk sentiment, eurozone data that — despite mixed signals — has not shown further deterioration, and a slightly more optimistic tone from the ECB that has reduced pressure on the currency.

US dollar weakness is also a key driver: the dollar has retreated alongside stabilizing yields, markets believe the Fed has concluded its major tightening phase, and softening US data has reduced the incentive to buy the dollar.

A break above 1.1620–1.1640 would confirm short-term bullish momentum, while a daily close above 1.1700 would lift the pair out of its consolidation structure and signal a broader trend reversal. Conversely, a failure to hold 1.1550 would shift attention back toward 1.1500, the current range floor.

Investor sentiment: shifting toward mild optimism

Retail traders have increased long exposure, institutional positioning has shifted from bearish to neutral, and options markets show a slight improvement in bullish pricing versus last week. Overall sentiment remains balanced — but tilts modestly in favor of buyers.

In short, EUR/USD is showing early signs of a bullish turn, supported by improving technicals and a softer dollar. A breakout has not yet occurred, but upward pressure is building. The bullish scenario opens above 1.1620, targeting 1.1700, while a break below 1.1550 refocuses attention on 1.1500. For now, the euro is stable and gradually rebuilding momentum.

Data

A series of data released Friday indicates that eurozone inflation continues to follow a reassuring trajectory, supporting economists’ expectations that it will remain close to target in the coming years — reducing the need for further rate cuts by the European Central Bank.

Inflation has hovered around the ECB’s 2% target for most of this year, and policymakers expect it to remain near this level in the medium term — a rare success for a central bank that struggled with extremely low inflation for a decade before it surged above 10% after the pandemic.

French inflation remained steady at 0.8% this month, eased slightly to 3.1% in Spain, and was broadly unchanged across several major German states — keeping the aggregate eurozone reading, due Tuesday, on track to hold near 2.1%.

No additional rate cuts expected

An ECB survey last month showed consumers expect inflation at 2.8% next year, up from 2.7% a month earlier, while three-year expectations stayed at 2.5%, and five-year expectations at 2.2%.

The survey — covering 19,000 adults in 11 eurozone countries — supports policymakers’ view that inflation has become anchored near target and is likely to stay there in the coming years, even if short-term fluctuations occur.

For this reason, financial markets see virtually no chance of a rate cut next month and assign only about a one-in-three probability to any further easing next year. Most economists believe the rate-cutting cycle has reached its floor.

Rate-cut debate continues

Still, the internal ECB debate on rate cuts is unlikely to fade soon. Lower energy prices could push inflation below target in 2026, and some policymakers worry that persistently low readings may drag expectations lower and entrench weak inflation.

However, the ECB typically looks past volatility caused by energy prices and focuses on the medium-term outlook. Chief economist Philip Lane warned that underlying price pressures excluding energy remain too high.

Lane also said that domestic inflation is set to moderate and pointed to the ECB’s income and spending survey, which showed consumer expectations for income growth rising to 1.2% from 1.1%, while expectations for spending growth remained at 3.5%.

Although the ECB is keeping the door open to further rate cuts, it has made clear it is in no hurry to adjust policy. Some policymakers argue the bank may have already completed its easing cycle after cutting the deposit rate in half over the past year through June.

Spot gold rose on Friday and is on track to notch a fourth straight monthly gain, supported by growing investor optimism that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in December, while a technical outage at CME Group halted trading in futures contracts.

Trading on CME’s currency platform — along with futures tied to FX, commodities, Treasurys, and equities — was suspended after the disruption. Before the outage, US gold futures for December delivery were last quoted at 4,221.30 dollars an ounce.

Nicholas Frappell, global head of institutional markets at ABC Refinery, said: “The main impact was a significant widening of over-the-counter spreads as liquidity disappeared from the futures market.”

Spot gold climbed 0.7% to 4,185.34 dollars an ounce by 07:17 GMT, marking its highest level since 14 November and heading for a weekly gain of roughly 3%. The metal is also poised for a 3.9% rise this month.

Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade, noted: “Liquidity appears thin, which is amplifying some price moves. Much of gold’s upside has been driven by pre-positioning ahead of a potentially lower-rate environment.”

Traders are assigning an 85% probability to a rate cut in December, up sharply from 50% a week earlier.

Comments this week from San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly and Fed Governor Christopher Waller further reinforced expectations of a cut next month.

And like President Donald Trump, Kevin Hassett — now emerging as the leading contender to succeed Jerome Powell as Fed chair — said interest rates should be lower.

Gold, which offers no yield, typically benefits from lower-rate environments.

The US dollar is heading for its worst week since late July, making dollar-priced gold more attractive for buyers using other currencies.

Among other precious metals, spot silver rose 1% to 53.98 dollars an ounce, and platinum gained 2.3% to 1,645.60 dollars. Silver is up 7.9% this week, while platinum has advanced 8.9%. Palladium slipped 0.4% to 1,433.20 dollars but remains on track for a weekly gain of about 4.3%.