Oil prices rose by about 1% in Monday trading, as investors assessed the implications of upcoming talks between the United States and Iran aimed at de-escalation, amid expectations of higher supply from the OPEC+ alliance.

Brent crude futures rose by $0.90, or 1.33%, to settle at $68.65 per barrel. US West Texas Intermediate crude climbed to $63.75 per barrel, up $0.86, or 1.37%, as of 2:14 pm Eastern Time (19:14 GMT). There was no official settlement price for the US contract on Monday due to the Presidents’ Day holiday.

Both benchmark crudes posted weekly losses last week, with Brent down about 0.5% and WTI losing 1%, after US President Donald Trump said Washington could reach an agreement with Tehran within the next month.

The United States and Iran are scheduled to hold a second round of talks in Geneva on Tuesday to discuss Iran’s nuclear program. Ahead of those talks, Iran’s foreign minister met on Monday with the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, the UN body responsible for monitoring nuclear activities.

According to reports citing an Iranian diplomat, Tehran is seeking a nuclear deal with Washington that delivers economic gains for both sides, with discussions covering energy and mining investments as well as aircraft purchases.

On the other hand, US officials told Reuters that the United States is preparing for the possibility of a sustained military campaign if the talks fail, while Iran’s Revolutionary Guard warned that any strikes on Iranian territory could trigger retaliation against US military bases.

While geopolitical tensions are supporting prices, OPEC+ is acting as a counterweight, as the alliance is inclined at its March 1 meeting to resume production increases starting in April after a three-month pause.

Prices also found support from continued strength in China’s crude imports and some disruptions to oil exports, according to Giovanni Staunovo, oil analyst at UBS.

Shipping data and trader estimates showed that China’s imports of Russian oil are set to rise for a third straight month in February to a new record, after India reduced its purchases under US pressure.

Bitcoin fell on Monday, extending its losses after crypto markets recorded four consecutive weeks of sharp declines, as uncertainty over interest rates continued to fuel aversion toward high-risk assets.

As of 05:55 ET (10:55 GMT), Bitcoin was down 2.2% at $68,875.0, after the world’s most popular cryptocurrency retreated following a brief weekend rebound that touched the $70,000 level.

Strategist: No Liquidation Risk Even if Bitcoin Falls to $8,000

Strategy (Nasdaq: MSTR) — the world’s largest institutional holder of Bitcoin — said on Sunday it can meet its debt obligations even if Bitcoin drops to $8,000 per coin.

The company said in a social media post that it can “withstand a BTC price decline to $8,000 while still holding sufficient assets to fully cover our liabilities.”

The company holds 714,644 Bitcoin, having financed its purchases through a mix of new equity issuance and long-term debt financing.

Strategy, led by prominent Bitcoin supporter Michael Saylor, has also continued buying more coins in recent weeks, despite the ongoing loss of momentum in the world’s largest cryptocurrency.

Bitcoin has now erased about 50% of its value since recording a record high near $126,000 in October. The token has led losses among speculative assets as uncertainty over the path of US interest rates pushed traders away from higher-risk investments.

The prolonged decline in Bitcoin has also raised concerns that Strategy could be forced to liquidate part of its holdings to meet debt obligations, although Saylor has repeatedly downplayed those risks.

Strategy reported in early February a loss of $12.4 billion for the December quarter, compared with a loss of $670.8 million in the same period of 2024. Apart from its large Bitcoin holdings, the company’s operating revenues remain limited.

Crypto Prices Today: Altcoins Follow Bitcoin Lower

Broader cryptocurrency prices also declined on Monday, tracking Bitcoin’s continued losses.

Ether, the world’s second-largest cryptocurrency, fell 3.9% to $1,982.03.

XRP dropped 5.9% to $1.4919.

BNB declined about 2%.

Solana and Cardano fell 4.2% and 3.4% respectively.

Among meme tokens, Dogecoin slid 9.5%, while TRUMP coin fell 1.1%.

Sentiment toward the crypto market has remained weak since October, with a sharp slowdown in both retail and institutional investment inflows. The strong rally in gold prices — amid a speculative surge in precious metals — has also largely overshadowed Bitcoin, as investors rotate toward tangible assets.

Oil prices moved within a narrow range on Monday as investors assessed the implications of upcoming US–Iran talks aimed at de-escalation, against expectations of increased supply from the OPEC+ alliance.

Brent crude futures rose 11 cents, or 0.2%, to $67.86 per barrel as of 13:17 GMT.

US West Texas Intermediate crude climbed to $62.99 per barrel, up 10 cents. The contract will not see a settlement on Monday due to the Presidents’ Day holiday in the United States.

Trading is also expected to remain subdued with markets closed in China, South Korea, and Taiwan for Lunar New Year holidays.

Previous Weekly Declines Driven by De-escalation Hopes

Benchmark contracts posted weekly losses last week, with Brent ending down about 0.5% and West Texas Intermediate losing 1%, after US President Donald Trump said Washington could reach an agreement with Tehran within the next month.

The two countries are scheduled to hold a second round of talks in Geneva on Tuesday regarding Iran’s nuclear program.

Ahead of those talks with Washington — mediated by Oman — Iran’s foreign minister met with the head of the UN’s International Atomic Energy Agency.

Tehran Seeks Economic–Nuclear Deal

Reports citing an Iranian diplomat said Tehran is seeking a nuclear agreement with the United States that delivers economic gains for both sides, with proposed investments in the energy and mining sectors and aircraft purchase deals included in discussions.

On the other side, the US is preparing for the possibility of a sustained military campaign if talks fail, according to US officials speaking to Reuters.

Iran’s Revolutionary Guard warned that if Iranian territory is struck, it could respond by targeting any US military base.

Price Scenarios Between $60 and $80

SEB analysts said in a note: “An escalation with Iran could push Brent to $80 per barrel, while easing tensions could bring it back to $60.”

While US–Iran tensions support prices, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies — known as OPEC+ — are capping the upward momentum, as the group is inclined to resume production increases from April at its March 1 meeting after a three-month pause, according to Reuters.

Shifts in Russian Oil Flows to Asia

Meanwhile, China’s imports of Russian oil are expected to rise for the third consecutive month to a new record in February, after India reduced its purchases under US pressure, according to traders and shipment-tracking data.

The Japanese yen declined on Monday, giving back part of the strong gains it recorded last week following weak growth data, while the US dollar held steady as recent inflation figures reinforced bets on Federal Reserve interest rate cuts later this year.

Liquidity is likely to remain thin in Monday’s trading, with markets closed in the United States, China, Taiwan, and South Korea due to holidays.

The yen fell by 0.5% to 153.43 against the dollar on Monday, after jumping about 3% last week — its biggest weekly gain in roughly 15 months — following a landslide election victory by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and her Liberal Democratic Party.

However, Monday’s data revealed some challenges facing Takaichi and her government, as the Japanese economy barely grew in the past quarter, posting an annualized expansion of just 0.2%.

Mohamed Al-Sarraf, assistant for FX and fixed income at Danske Bank, said: “After the election, the political dust may be settling somewhat — at least in the near term — and we are seeing the yen become more sensitive to data.”

Government–central bank coordination without direct requests

Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda and Prime Minister Takaichi held their first bilateral meeting since the election on Monday.

Ueda said the two sides conducted a “general exchange of views on economic and financial developments,” noting that the prime minister made no specific requests regarding monetary policy.

The Bank of Japan holds its next interest rate meeting in March, where traders assign a 20% probability to a rate hike. Economists polled by Reuters last month expected the central bank to wait until July before tightening policy again.

The Bank of Japan raised its key policy rate in December to its highest level in 30 years at 0.75%, but it remains well below most major economies, contributing to notable yen weakness and prompting direct currency interventions in past years.

US rate cut bets

Data released on Friday showed US consumer prices rose less than expected in January, giving the Federal Reserve additional room to ease monetary policy this year.

Kyle Rodda, senior financial analyst at Capital.com, said: “Markets have started to hint at pricing in a third rate cut.”

Futures indicate about 62 basis points of easing over the remainder of the year, equivalent to two quarter-point cuts, with roughly a 50% chance of a third. The next cut is most likely in June, with markets assigning an 80% probability to that move.

Currencies and bonds moves

The euro slipped by less than 0.1% to $1.1862, while the British pound edged down slightly to $1.3647.

The US dollar index — which measures the currency against six major peers — rose by less than 0.1% to 97, after falling 0.8% last week.

Most post-inflation data moves were concentrated in the bond market, where the US two-year Treasury yield — which reflects Fed policy expectations — closed at its lowest level since 2022 on Friday, while the 10-year yield fell by 4.8 basis points. US bond markets remain closed on Monday.

The Swiss franc, Australian, and New Zealand dollars

The Swiss franc edged lower to 0.7696 against the dollar after gaining more than 1% last week, as investors grew more cautious about possible Swiss National Bank intervention to curb the strength of the traditional safe-haven currency.

OCBC analysts said in a note: “Any further gains in the franc increase the risk of downside surprises relative to the Swiss National Bank’s inflation forecasts.”

They added that this “could challenge the bank’s recent tolerance for currency strength, even if the probability of a return to negative rates remains low.”

Meanwhile, the Australian dollar rose 0.2% to $0.7083, remaining below last week’s three-year high of $0.71465, while the New Zealand dollar held steady at $0.6041 ahead of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand policy meeting on Wednesday, where rates are widely expected to be kept unchanged.