Brent crude futures fell during Friday trading, pulling back from their highest levels in five months, after US President Donald Trump signaled the possibility of holding talks with Iran, easing concerns over potential supply disruptions.

By 09:58 GMT, Brent futures were down 68 cents, or nearly 1%, at $70.03 per barrel. The decline came ahead of the expiry of the March contract later on Friday, while the more actively traded April contract fell 80 cents, or 1.15%, to $68.79 per barrel. US West Texas Intermediate crude also slipped 72 cents, or 1.1%, to $64.70 per barrel.

Tamas Varga, an analyst at PVM, said Trump’s willingness to give diplomacy with Iran a chance makes US military intervention less likely than it appeared a day earlier, adding that a stronger dollar and improving supply conditions also encouraged investors to lock in profits.

The pullback comes ahead of the OPEC+ meeting scheduled for Sunday. Five delegates told Reuters they expect the alliance to keep its production increase pause in place for March, despite Brent climbing back above $70 per barrel on Iran-related concerns. Brent had jumped to around $72 per barrel earlier, its highest level since August.

The eight producers behind the current supply policy had raised output quotas by around 2.9 million barrels per day between April and December 2025, before deciding to suspend any further increases from January through March due to weak seasonal demand. The Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee is also set to meet on Sunday, although it does not take direct decisions on production levels.

In Thursday’s session, Brent surged 3.4% to settle at $70.71 per barrel, marking its highest close since July 31, amid reports that Trump was considering steps against Iran, alongside the European Union imposing new sanctions on Tehran over its crackdown on protests.

PVM analyst John Evans said the main risk remains the potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20 million barrels per day of oil flows. The sharp rally pushed Brent into technically “overbought” territory and widened the Brent–WTI spread to $5.30 per barrel, a move that could encourage higher US crude exports.

According to traders, Friday’s moves looked more like cautious risk reduction ahead of the weekend rather than a shift in the broader market trend, with additional pressure stemming from the expiry of the front-month contract and the roll into later-dated positions along the futures curve.

Oil trading linked to Iran has been highly headline-sensitive this week, with prices factoring in a so-called “geopolitical premium” reflecting disruption risks, which could quickly fade if progress is made toward any potential talks.

Currencies also play a key role. A stronger dollar typically weighs on oil prices, as crude is priced in dollars, making it more expensive for buyers using other currencies.

On the supply side, signals remain mixed. US production is recovering after weather-related disruptions, while Kazakhstan is working to stabilize output following recent interruptions, partially easing the tight-supply narrative.

The spread between Brent and WTI adds another layer to the outlook. When the spread widens, US crude becomes more attractive for export, which over time could cap gains in global benchmarks as shipments increase.

A Reuters poll of 31 economists and analysts forecast Brent crude to average $62.02 per barrel in 2026, expecting surplus supply to ultimately outweigh geopolitical factors. Norbert Rucker, head of economics and next-generation research at Julius Baer, said geopolitics creates plenty of noise, but the oil market appears to be in a state of sustained surplus. The poll estimated a potential surplus ranging between 0.75 million and 3.5 million barrels per day, with expectations that OPEC+ will leave output unchanged at Sunday’s meeting after shelving planned increases for the first quarter.

Risks remain two-sided. If talks with Iran stall or tensions escalate, the market could quickly reprice the risk premium. Conversely, if surplus barrels build up and demand undershoots expectations, any upside may run into a clear ceiling.

Traders are now focused on Sunday’s OPEC+ decision for guidance on March supply and what may follow, depending on developments in US–Iran talks, while also closely watching Trump’s upcoming choice for the next Federal Reserve chair, given its direct impact on the dollar and, in turn, oil demand.

Gold prices fell in European trading on Friday, extending losses for a second consecutive session and moving further away from their all-time highs, amid accelerating corrective moves and profit-taking, and under pressure from the US dollar entering a recovery phase against a basket of global currencies.

Despite the current pullback, gold remains on track to post its largest monthly gain since January 1980, supported by rising investor demand for safe-haven assets amid persistent and escalating global geopolitical and economic tensions, alongside renewed concerns over US assets.

Price Overview

• Gold prices today: Gold fell by around 5.0% to $5,112.57, from an opening level of $5,378.25, after touching an intraday high of $5,451.02.

• At Thursday’s settlement, the precious metal lost 0.7%, marking its first daily decline in nine sessions, due to corrective moves and profit-taking after earlier hitting a record high of $5,598.13 per ounce.

US Dollar

The US dollar index rose 0.6% on Friday, extending a short-term recovery from a four-year low, reflecting continued strength in the US currency against a basket of major and secondary currencies.

The dollar’s rebound was supported by comments from US President Donald Trump regarding the imminent announcement of his nominee for Federal Reserve chair, alongside optimism that a looming US government shutdown could be avoided.

Trump said he intends to reveal the name of the candidate to succeed Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell later on Friday, following reports that former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh had visited the White House. This fueled market expectations of a more hawkish appointment, providing additional support to the dollar.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent denied reports on Wednesday suggesting that the United States might intervene in currency markets, amid speculation surrounding intervention in the Japanese yen and the dollar’s slide to multi-year lows.

Bessent said the United States has long pursued a strong-dollar policy, adding that such a policy is built on sound fundamentals. He noted that if policies are sound, capital will flow in, and that efforts to reduce the trade deficit would naturally support a stronger dollar over time.

Federal Reserve

• At the conclusion of its first regular policy meeting of the year, and in line with most expectations, the Federal Reserve on Wednesday left interest rates unchanged at the 3.50%–3.75% range, the lowest level since September 2022.

• The decision was not unanimous, with the Federal Open Market Committee voting 10–2, as two members, Stephen Miran and Christopher Waller, dissented in favor of an additional 25-basis-point cut.

• The Fed said available indicators show economic activity continuing to expand at a steady pace, noting that inflation remains somewhat elevated and that labor market indicators point to relative stability.

• Fed Chair Jerome Powell said current monetary policy is appropriate, adding that policymakers are well positioned to determine the timing and extent of any further adjustments to interest rates.

US Interest Rate Expectations

• Following the meeting, and according to the CME FedWatch Tool, market pricing for holding rates steady in March rose from 82% to 88%, while the probability of a 25-basis-point cut fell from 18% to 12%.

• Investors continue to price in two rate cuts over the coming year, while Federal Reserve projections point to a single 25-basis-point cut.

• Investors are closely watching upcoming US economic data, along with comments from Federal Reserve officials, to reassess these expectations.

Gold Outlook

Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade, said that the prospect of appointing a less dovish Federal Reserve chair, the rebound in the dollar, and gold entering overbought territory all contributed to the recent pullback in prices.

Matt Simpson, senior analyst at StoneX, said that speculation around Kevin Warsh potentially becoming Fed chair weighed on gold during Asian trading.

Monthly Performance

• Over January trading, which officially concludes at today’s settlement, gold prices are up around 20%, on track for a sixth consecutive monthly gain and the strongest monthly performance since January 1980.

• This outsized monthly gain, the largest in nearly half a century, is attributed to heavy buying by central banks, institutions, and individual investors seeking gold as the preferred alternative investment, amid intensifying global geopolitical and economic tensions and renewed concerns over US assets due to Trump’s volatile policy stance.

SPDR Gold Trust

• Gold holdings at SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold-backed ETF, fell by 0.85 metric tons on Thursday, bringing total holdings down to 1,086.53 metric tons, retreating from 1,087.38 tons, the highest level since May 3, 2022.

Gold prices fell in European trading on Friday, extending losses for a second consecutive session and moving further away from their all-time highs, amid accelerating corrective moves and profit-taking, and under pressure from the US dollar entering a recovery phase against a basket of global currencies.

Despite the current pullback, gold remains on track to post its largest monthly gain since January 1980, supported by rising investor demand for safe-haven assets amid persistent and escalating global geopolitical and economic tensions, alongside renewed concerns over US assets.

Price Overview

• Gold prices today: Gold fell by around 5.0% to $5,112.57, from an opening level of $5,378.25, after touching an intraday high of $5,451.02.

• At Thursday’s settlement, the precious metal lost 0.7%, marking its first daily decline in nine sessions, due to corrective moves and profit-taking after earlier hitting a record high of $5,598.13 per ounce.

US Dollar

The US dollar index rose 0.6% on Friday, extending a short-term recovery from a four-year low, reflecting continued strength in the US currency against a basket of major and secondary currencies.

The dollar’s rebound was supported by comments from US President Donald Trump regarding the imminent announcement of his nominee for Federal Reserve chair, alongside optimism that a looming US government shutdown could be avoided.

Trump said he intends to reveal the name of the candidate to succeed Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell later on Friday, following reports that former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh had visited the White House. This fueled market expectations of a more hawkish appointment, providing additional support to the dollar.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent denied reports on Wednesday suggesting that the United States might intervene in currency markets, amid speculation surrounding intervention in the Japanese yen and the dollar’s slide to multi-year lows.

Bessent said the United States has long pursued a strong-dollar policy, adding that such a policy is built on sound fundamentals. He noted that if policies are sound, capital will flow in, and that efforts to reduce the trade deficit would naturally support a stronger dollar over time.

Federal Reserve

• At the conclusion of its first regular policy meeting of the year, and in line with most expectations, the Federal Reserve on Wednesday left interest rates unchanged at the 3.50%–3.75% range, the lowest level since September 2022.

• The decision was not unanimous, with the Federal Open Market Committee voting 10–2, as two members, Stephen Miran and Christopher Waller, dissented in favor of an additional 25-basis-point cut.

• The Fed said available indicators show economic activity continuing to expand at a steady pace, noting that inflation remains somewhat elevated and that labor market indicators point to relative stability.

• Fed Chair Jerome Powell said current monetary policy is appropriate, adding that policymakers are well positioned to determine the timing and extent of any further adjustments to interest rates.

US Interest Rate Expectations

• Following the meeting, and according to the CME FedWatch Tool, market pricing for holding rates steady in March rose from 82% to 88%, while the probability of a 25-basis-point cut fell from 18% to 12%.

• Investors continue to price in two rate cuts over the coming year, while Federal Reserve projections point to a single 25-basis-point cut.

• Investors are closely watching upcoming US economic data, along with comments from Federal Reserve officials, to reassess these expectations.

Gold Outlook

Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade, said that the prospect of appointing a less dovish Federal Reserve chair, the rebound in the dollar, and gold entering overbought territory all contributed to the recent pullback in prices.

Matt Simpson, senior analyst at StoneX, said that speculation around Kevin Warsh potentially becoming Fed chair weighed on gold during Asian trading.

Monthly Performance

• Over January trading, which officially concludes at today’s settlement, gold prices are up around 20%, on track for a sixth consecutive monthly gain and the strongest monthly performance since January 1980.

• This outsized monthly gain, the largest in nearly half a century, is attributed to heavy buying by central banks, institutions, and individual investors seeking gold as the preferred alternative investment, amid intensifying global geopolitical and economic tensions and renewed concerns over US assets due to Trump’s volatile policy stance.

SPDR Gold Trust

• Gold holdings at SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold-backed ETF, fell by 0.85 metric tons on Thursday, bringing total holdings down to 1,086.53 metric tons, retreating from 1,087.38 tons, the highest level since May 3, 2022.

The euro retreated in European trading on Friday against a basket of global currencies, resuming its losses versus the US dollar and moving away from a five-year high, amid renewed corrective moves and profit-taking, and under pressure from warnings issued by European monetary authorities over the euro’s excessive appreciation.

The euro’s rise above the $1.20 level earlier this week raised concerns among policymakers at the European Central Bank, who warned that a rapid strengthening of the currency could generate deflationary effects.

Despite the current pullback, the single European currency is on track to post its third consecutive monthly gain, supported by a broad selloff in US assets and following the historic trade agreement between the European Union and India.

Price Overview

• Euro exchange rate today: The euro fell against the dollar by 0.65% to $1.1865, from an opening level of $1.1971, after touching an intraday high of $1.1975.

• The euro ended Thursday up 0.15% against the dollar, after losing 0.7% the previous day amid corrective moves and profit-taking from a five-year high at $1.2082.

European Monetary Authorities

The euro’s move above the $1.20 threshold for the first time in five years has raised concerns among European monetary authorities, prompting ECB policymakers to issue a series of cautionary statements regarding the impact of a strong currency on inflation dynamics and economic growth.

Economists noted that euro strength could amplify the deflationary impact of strong Chinese exports, potentially pushing the ECB out of its “comfort zone” and forcing it toward further interest rate cuts.

Jeff Yu, EMEA macro strategist at Bank of New York, said that while the euro-dollar exchange rate last year remained well above the ECB’s baseline scenario without triggering strong deflationary risks, trade-related uncertainty remains elevated.

Ray Attrill, head of FX strategy at National Australia Bank, said he believes ECB remarks are independent, but noted that the $1.20 level appears to have acted as a clear trigger point.

Attrill added that the euro–dollar move, which until recently had not appeared particularly strong, arguably masks broader strength in the euro, which in turn feeds back into the ECB’s inflation outlook.

Monthly Performance

Over January trading, which officially concludes at today’s settlement, the single European currency is up more than 1.5% against the US dollar, putting it on course for a third straight monthly gain.

European Interest Rates

• ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel said on Wednesday that monetary policy is “in a good place,” and that interest rates are expected to remain at current levels for an extended period, with financial markets pricing stability through early 2027.

• Money market pricing for a 25-basis-point rate cut by the ECB in February currently remains below 25%.

• Investors are awaiting further economic data from the euro area, particularly on inflation, unemployment, and wages, to reassess these expectations.

European Economy

Following the trade agreement with India, markets have grown more optimistic about the outlook for the European economy, as the strategic partnership helps diversify supply chains and expand the services sector’s footprint in a vast consumer market. This supports more sustainable European growth and reduces vulnerability to global trade disputes.

The European Union and India reached a historic trade agreement this week after nearly 20 years of negotiations, a deal described by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen as the “mother of all deals.”