Can gold prices scale $3000, and oil prices $100 by 2025?
2024-02-20 11:37AM UTC

According to latest estimates by the Citibank group, analysts say it’s possible for gold prices to hit $3000 an ounce, and for oil prices to hit $100 in the next 12 to 18 months.


The strategic team for the group put three possible catalysts that could materialize these forecasts by 2025. 


The major catalysts for a gold surge would be an increase in gold holdings by global central banks, or an inflationary recession, or if a deep depression hit the global economy.


Central Banks Purchases 


Citibank analysts said in their memo, that the most likely path towards $3000 would be a massive surge in gold purchases by central banks, especially in developing economies as a potential trust crisis around the dollar grows. 


Such purchases already scaled record highs in recent years as central banks seek to reduce credit risks and diversify holdings, especially in China, Russia, India, Turkey, and Brazil. 


The International Gold Council reported that net gold purchases by global central banks surpassed 1000 tonnes for two consecutive years.  


If such purchases increased to 2000 tonnes, it would provide a massive boost to gold prices.


Inflationary Recession 


An inflationary recession leads to higher prices and slower growth and higher unemployment, boosting demand for gold as a safe haven.


Citigroup analysts believe that such a scenario is very unlikely, but remains possible.


Global Depression 


The most important scenario which could push gold prices to $3000 would be a global economic depression that would force central banks, led by the US Federal Reserve, to cut interest rates. 


That means cuts to below 1%, which could push gold prices to $3000, however it’s an unlikely scenario. 


Aside from these scenarios, Citigroup’s main forecasts for gold prices remain at $2,150 an ounce through the second half of 2024. 


Oil’s Path to $100 a Barrel 


On oil, Citigroup analysts said oil prices could hit triple digits once more if geopolitical risks surged, or if OPEC + enacted deeper cuts, or if supply disruptions occurred. 


The ongoing Israel-Hamas war in Gaza hasn’t really impacted oil production or exports, with the sole influence coming from the Yemeni Houthi group attacking ships, including oil tankers in the path through the Red Sea. 


The report said that Iraq, a major oil producer, is impacted by the conflict, and any escalation could hurt other major OPEC+ producers in the region. 


The Citigroup report also warned of potential supply disruptions from Iran, Libya, Nigeria, Venezuela, and others, especially if the US enacted more stringent sanctions on Iran and Venezuela. 


Other geopolitical risks would develop if Ukraine managed to attack Russian oil refineries with drones. 

Commodities News

Gold News


Gold surpasses $2400 for first time ever
2024-04-16 20:03PM UTC
Gold prices rallied on Tuesday and scaled fresh record highs on strong haven demand, as global ...
Oil News


Oil prices hover near two-week lows as markets expect little response from Israel to Iran's attacks
2024-04-16 13:17PM UTC
Global oil prices fell in American trade on Tuesday, approaching two-week lows as the US now ...
Gold News


Will gold prices scale $3000 an ounce in 2024?
2024-04-16 11:59AM UTC
Gold prices continued to move in a positive zone and approached the record highs scaled last week ...

Commodities Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis


Sugar price hits the target – Forecast today - 16-04-2024
2024-04-17 03:03AM UTC
Sugar Price Analysis Expected Scenario Sugar price succeeded to achieve our waited target ...
Brent oil Analysis


Brent oil price forecast update 16-04-2024
2024-04-16 09:52AM UTC
Brent Oil Price Forecast Brent oil price finds solid resistance at 90.90$, to show negative ...
Oil Analysis


Crude oil price forecast update 16-04-2024
2024-04-16 09:48AM UTC
Crude Oil Price Forecast Crude oil price trades negatively to press on 85.45$ support line, ...