Despite the European Union’s public pledge to sever energy ties with Moscow, new data shows that EU ports remained the largest buyer of Russia’s flagship Arctic liquefied natural gas project throughout 2025.

An analysis of ship-tracking data from Kpler, published on Thursday by the non-governmental organization Urgewald, shows that EU terminals handled 76.1% of total exports from the Yamal LNG facility last year, generating estimated revenues of about €7.2 billion ($8.4 billion) for the Kremlin.

These findings come as the European Union prepares to implement a phased ban on Russian LNG, set to take full effect by 2027. However, the data indicates that the pace of transition remains slow.

In 2025, Yamal LNG accounted for 14.3% of the EU’s total global LNG imports, meaning roughly one in every seven LNG tankers arriving at European ports originated from the Siberian project.

Arctic Fragility and the European Loophole

The Yamal LNG project is located deep in Russia’s Arctic and is a cornerstone of President Vladimir Putin’s strategy to expand Russia’s share of the global super-cooled fuel market. The project, however, faces a critical logistical bottleneck, relying on a highly specialized fleet of just 14 ice-class tankers, known as Arc7 vessels, capable of navigating the frozen Northern Sea Route.

Given the small size and unique nature of this fleet, the project’s commercial viability depends on keeping these ships on the shortest possible routes. By offloading cargoes at European ports such as Zeebrugge in Belgium or Montoir-de-Bretagne in France, the tankers can quickly return to the Arctic for reloading. This function is described as a “logistical lung,” allowing Russia to maintain high export volumes that would be impossible if the vessels were forced to undertake months-long voyages to Asian markets.

Sebastian Roeters, sanctions campaigner at Urgewald, said: “While Brussels celebrates agreements aimed at phasing out Russian gas, our ports continue to act as the logistical lung for Russia’s largest LNG terminal. We are not just customers, but the critical infrastructure that keeps this flagship project alive.”

Regional Import Hubs and the Shipping Backbone

France emerged as the main entry point for Yamal LNG in 2025. A total of 87 vessels delivered 6.3 million tonnes of gas to the French ports of Dunkirk and Montoir, representing about 42% of Yamal’s total exports to the EU.

Belgium’s Zeebrugge terminal ranked second as the single busiest port, receiving 58 vessels—more than the 51 ships that arrived at all Chinese ports combined over the same period.

The logistical backbone of this trade remains largely in Western hands. Two shipping companies—UK-based Seapeak and Greece-based Dynagas—control 11 of the 14 Arc7 tankers currently serving the Yamal project. Together, the two companies transported more than 70% of the volumes destined for the EU last year.

Broader Implications for Industry and Geopolitics

The continued flow of Russian LNG comes at a sensitive moment for Europe’s energy security. While the EU’s 14th sanctions package, adopted in 2024, banned the transshipment of Russian gas to third countries via EU ports, it did not prohibit imports for domestic consumption within the bloc.

Energy analysts believe 2026 will be a pivotal year for the global market, with large volumes of new supply from the United States and Qatar expected to come online, potentially easing price volatility that has made replacing Russian gas so difficult.

Urgewald, however, warns that unless the EU acts to prevent the Arc7 fleet from being transferred into so-called “shadow fleet” structures once current charter contracts expire, Russia may find ways to circumvent the full ban scheduled for 2027.

“We must act now to use our leverage,” Roeters added. “The European Union and the United Kingdom must ensure that the Arc7 fleet does not fall into the wrong hands by the end of the year.”

The European Commission has asked member states to submit energy diversification plans by March 1, 2026, outlining how they intend to replace remaining volumes of Russian gas. While Spain recorded a sharp 33% drop in Yamal imports during 2025, the EU’s overall dependence remains significant, underscoring the difficulty of balancing energy security with geopolitical objectives.

US stock indices rose in Friday’s trading following the release of the monthly jobs report, as investors assessed its implications for Federal Reserve policy.

Data released earlier today showed that the US economy added just 50,000 jobs in December, below market expectations of 73,000, while the unemployment rate declined to 4.4%.

Separately, the US Supreme Court is holding a hearing today to review the legality of tariffs imposed by the Trump administration in April.

In this context, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Washington would be able to offset any lost tariff revenue should the court rule against the measures.

Meanwhile, Federal Reserve official Steven Miran called for interest rate cuts totaling 150 basis points this year, arguing that such a move is necessary to support the labor market.

In market trading, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 0.6%, or 271 points, to 49,537 by 17:21 GMT. The broader S&P 500 gained just under 0.6%, or 42 points, to 6,964, while the Nasdaq Composite advanced by 0.7%, or 170 points, to 23,650.

Copper prices continue to rise, extending their rally as metals markets head toward a fourth consecutive weekly gain. This advance reflects a combination of tight global supply, steady demand expectations linked to the electrification transition, and renewed investor interest in base metals.

Despite some buyers stepping back at record levels, the broader market trend remains positive, keeping copper firmly in focus for traders, manufacturers, and long-term investors.

This move comes at a time when copper is no longer viewed merely as a traditional industrial metal, but increasingly as a strategic asset tied to electric vehicles, renewable energy, power grid upgrades, and global infrastructure plans. As prices climb, market participants are asking key questions: why is copper rising now, who is buying, and where could prices head next?

Below is a clear and investor-oriented breakdown of the full picture.

Copper prices today and weekly market performance

Copper prices have traded higher in recent sessions, pushing metals markets toward a fourth straight weekly gain. Across global exchanges, benchmark copper contracts advanced as investors reacted to a mix of supply constraints and long-term optimism around demand.

On the London Metal Exchange, copper prices have remained close to multi-year highs, supported by strong speculative interest and declining visible inventories. Futures markets indicate that traders are adding to positions in anticipation of further upside, despite short-term profit-taking emerging at elevated levels.

Market commentary has highlighted the strength of the metals sector more broadly, linking performance to structural drivers such as AI-related demand, clean technologies, and rising defense-related industrial activity amid higher global military spending.

Why copper prices are rising despite elevated levels

Despite the sharp rally seen over the past year, copper’s upward trend remains intact. While this may appear surprising, several reinforcing factors continue to support prices.

First, global copper supply remains constrained. Many major mines are facing declining ore grades, rising costs, and increasing operational challenges. At the same time, new project development takes years, and investment has yet to fully catch up with projected future demand.

Second, demand linked to the energy transition continues to grow steadily. Copper is essential for electric vehicles, charging infrastructure, solar panels, wind turbines, and power grids. An electric vehicle uses roughly three to four times more copper than a conventional internal combustion car.

Third, financial investors have returned to metals markets as a hedge against inflation and supply-chain risks. With interest-rate expectations stabilizing across major economies, capital is once again flowing into commodities.

China’s role in the copper rally

China remains the world’s largest copper consumer, accounting for more than half of global demand. Recent developments show that some Chinese industrial buyers have temporarily pulled back after prices reached record highs, a common pattern under such conditions.

When prices rise rapidly, manufacturers often delay purchases while waiting for potential corrections. This behavior reflects postponement rather than a disappearance of demand.

Crucially, global demand remains strong enough to support prices even with this temporary slowdown from China. Analysts also note that inventory levels within China are not excessive, and any improvement in construction or manufacturing activity could quickly revive strong buying interest.

This balance between cautious buying and tight supply helps explain why prices have remained resilient rather than undergoing a sharp correction.

Copper price outlook and analyst views

Over the medium to long term, many banks and research institutions expect copper prices to remain elevated. Forecasts vary, but several credible projections point to copper trading between $9,500 and $11,000 per tonne over the coming years.

Some longer-term scenarios suggest even higher levels in the second half of the decade if supply continues to lag demand driven by electrification and digital infrastructure expansion.

This optimism is rooted in the view that copper demand is no longer purely cyclical, but increasingly structural. Power grids require modernization, renewable energy capacity is expanding, electric vehicles are gaining market share, and all of these trends are copper-intensive.

As a result, copper has become part of broader investment narratives around artificial intelligence, as analysts link metals demand to data centers, automation, and smart infrastructure.

Copper prices and inventory trends

Low inventory levels remain one of the strongest pillars supporting copper prices. Stocks recorded at major exchanges are still near historically low levels relative to global consumption.

Such tight inventories mean that even minor supply disruptions, whether from weather events, labor strikes, or logistical issues, can trigger sharp price moves.

This environment also encourages financial investors to maintain long positions, reinforcing upward momentum in the market.

How traders are reading copper charts

From a technical perspective, analysts point to the formation of strong support zones near recent breakout levels, while resistance remains concentrated near record highs. Momentum indicators suggest that while periods of consolidation or cooling are possible, the broader trend remains upward.

As a result, many traders are relying on disciplined risk-management strategies while continuing to take advantage of the upside opportunities offered by the copper market.

Oil prices rose on Friday, driven by concerns over potential disruptions to Iranian production, alongside continued uncertainty surrounding oil supplies from Venezuela.

Brent crude futures climbed 50 cents, or 0.8%, to $62.49 a barrel by 13:59 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gained 51 cents, or 0.9%, to $58.27 a barrel.

Both benchmarks posted gains of more than 3% on Thursday after two consecutive sessions of losses. On a weekly basis, Brent is heading for gains of around 3%, while WTI is up about 1.8%.

Oli Hansen, head of commodities strategy at Saxo Bank, said that “protests in Iran appear to be gaining momentum, prompting markets to worry about potential supply disruptions.”

Civil unrest in Iran, a major oil producer in the Middle East, combined with concerns that the war between Russia and Ukraine could spill over into Russian oil exports, has heightened anxiety over global supply conditions.

At the same time, the White House is scheduled to hold a meeting on Friday with oil companies and trading houses to discuss Venezuelan oil export deals.

US President Donald Trump has demanded that Venezuela grant the United States full access to its oil sector, just days after the arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro on Saturday. US officials have confirmed that Washington will take control of Venezuelan oil sales and revenues for an indefinite period.

US oil major Chevron, along with global trading houses such as Vitol and Trafigura and other firms, is competing to strike deals with the US government to market up to 50 million barrels of oil accumulated in storage by Venezuela’s state oil company PDVSA, under a strict oil blockade that has included the seizure of four oil tankers, according to two sources.

Tina Teng, a market analyst at Moomoo ANZ, said that “the market will focus in the coming days on the outcome of these talks to determine how the stored Venezuelan oil will be sold and delivered.”

In Iran, internet monitoring group NetBlocks reported a nationwide internet outage on Thursday, as protests continued in the capital Tehran and major cities such as Mashhad and Isfahan, amid mounting anger over worsening economic conditions.

In a separate development, the Russian military said on Friday it had launched a hypersonic Oreshnik missile at targets inside Ukraine, including energy infrastructure supporting Ukraine’s military-industrial complex, according to a statement from Russia’s defence ministry.

Despite these developments, Haitong Futures noted that global oil inventories are rising, and that surplus supply remains the dominant factor likely to cap gains. The firm added that unless Iran-related risks escalate further, the rebound is likely to remain limited and difficult to sustain.