How can Europe access 22 trillion cubic feet of Barents sea gas?

New research and analysis by Rystad Energy suggests that a rethink of the European Union’s Arctic policy could help keep Norwegian Barents Sea gas within Europe’s supply mix during the 2030s, offering a nearby and relatively lower-emission source as Europe becomes increasingly reliant on the global LNG market.

The European Commission is currently reviewing its 2021 Arctic policy and has opened a public consultation running until March 16, 2026. Since Barents Sea projects typically require five to ten years to move from discovery to stable production, policy signals issued by the EU today will determine whether additional volumes from currently open Norwegian areas become available by the mid-2030s — or whether Europe will depend more heavily on imported LNG over the next decade.

A More Targeted Policy Without Undermining Climate Goals

Rystad’s analysis suggests that the EU could allow higher production in the Barents Sea by defining clearer geographical and operational boundaries without necessarily weakening its climate policies. This could be achieved by defining the “Arctic” more precisely and linking any activity to strict emissions and environmental safeguards.

Such an approach would allow differentiation between Norwegian areas already open for exploration and more environmentally sensitive zones. However, the proposal is likely to remain controversial among environmental groups and would not fundamentally change the broader debate around Arctic oil and gas drilling, though it could influence how buyers and policymakers assess supply sources during the 2030s.

Under Rystad’s base-case scenario for the EU-27 plus the United Kingdom, Norway is expected to continue supplying around 20%–30% of Europe’s gas demand through 2050, while Europe’s dependence on LNG is projected to rise from 30% to 50%, increasing exposure to global market volatility.

Resource Size and Development Challenges

The Norwegian Offshore Directorate estimates that areas currently open for exploration in the Barents Sea contain around 3.5 billion barrels of oil equivalent in natural gas resources, equal to roughly 22 trillion cubic feet.

Rystad expects projects approved before 2030 to contribute about 2.25 billion barrels of oil equivalent in cumulative production through 2050. Additional output would require new discoveries, coordinated multi-field development, and — most importantly — sufficient export infrastructure.

Infrastructure as a Key Constraint

Infrastructure remains one of the biggest challenges for long-term expansion. A study by Gassco and the Norwegian Petroleum Directorate found that additional export capacity from the Barents Sea could be commercially viable if sufficient production volumes are proven.

Currently, the Hammerfest LNG export terminal is the main outlet, but it is largely tied to the Snøhvit field, limiting flexibility for additional production. A pipeline connecting southward to the Norwegian Sea network is a potential option, but would require large production volumes and coordinated project timelines to justify financing.

Emissions and Environmental Standards

Emissions are a central issue in the ongoing policy review, directly affecting how buyers compare future gas supply sources.

Norwegian production is globally recognized for relatively low emissions, and pipeline gas from Norway is considered a lower-emission option for Europe. At the Snøhvit project, carbon dioxide is captured and reinjected offshore, while planned electrification of the Snøhvit–Hammerfest facilities is expected to further reduce the project’s carbon footprint.

Environmental critics argue that lower emissions intensity does not change the fact that burning gas still adds carbon dioxide to the atmosphere. However, methane intensity and lifecycle emissions are increasingly being used in procurement and policy frameworks to differentiate between energy sources.

A Managed Approach Rather Than Full Opening

The report argues that fully opening the Arctic for exploration is unrealistic. Instead, a strict regulatory framework could allow continued development in already opened Norwegian areas while excluding environmentally sensitive regions.

Any approvals could be tied to measurable criteria such as:

Limiting methane and carbon dioxide emissions

Ending routine gas flaring

Electrifying facilities where possible

Independent verification and transparent environmental reporting

Additional safeguards may include protection of sensitive ecosystems, seasonal restrictions on operations, and consultation with Sami communities, coastal populations, and the fishing industry.

Energy Security and Market Shifts

Demand security is also a key factor, as periodic policy reviews could reduce stranded-asset risks if gas consumption declines faster than expected.

Ultimately, Europe is likely to compare marginal gas sources rather than add massive new volumes, using emissions and lifecycle metrics to select remaining lower-impact supplies — a shift that could help steer demand toward less carbon-intensive energy sources during the energy transition.