Ongoing unrest in the Gulf has led to a sharp rise in global gas prices, bringing renewed attention to Turkmenistan’s vast gas reserves, amid fresh calls to revive a long-discussed trans-Caspian pipeline project that could help ease Europe’s energy crisis.

During an energy conference on April 24, Turkish Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar called for urgent international talks to revive the long-awaited pipeline project aimed at transporting Turkmen gas across the Caspian Sea to Turkey and then to Europe.

He said: “We believe it is extremely necessary to implement a pipeline that transports Turkmen natural gas from the Caspian Sea to Turkey, and from Turkey to Europe.”

Supply crisis pressures Turkey and Europe

Ankara is seeking to strengthen its gas supply sources after Iranian supplies were halted in March due to the conflict in the Gulf. Iran had provided about 15% of Turkey’s gas needs, while Ankara imports more than 80% of its consumption, with gas costs rising by about 70% this year.

A previous attempt to import Turkmen gas through a swap agreement with Iran failed last year after just three months, following tighter US sanctions on Tehran. Delivered volumes did not exceed 1.3 billion cubic meters by the end of 2025, despite plans to raise them to 3 billion this year.

A long-term strategic solution

Building a direct pipeline to transport gas from Turkmenistan across the Caspian Sea to Azerbaijan, and then to Turkey and Europe, is seen as a strategic option to ensure long-term supplies.

Although the project has been discussed since the late 1990s, it has not been implemented due to Europe and Turkey previously preferring cheaper gas imports from Russia and Azerbaijan, in addition to Baku’s reservations about allowing Turkmen gas to pass through its territory, as well as the absence of clear commitments from Turkmenistan regarding supply volumes.

A new window of opportunity for Europe

Today, with rising prices due to the Gulf conflict, which has exposed the fragility of the Strait of Hormuz as a vital energy corridor, Europe faces a dilemma in securing gas supplies.

The European Union plans to end its remaining imports of Russian gas by November 2027, while Azerbaijan has not yet succeeded in increasing production sufficiently to compensate for these supplies.

In this context, Turkmenistan may find an opportunity to strengthen its role as a major gas supplier to Europe.

Financing and geopolitical challenges

However, the project faces significant obstacles, most notably its estimated cost of around $12 billion, raising questions about investors’ willingness to bear the risks amid uncertainty surrounding Iran, the Gulf, and the Caspian region.

The proposed pipeline—spanning about 300 kilometers—would lie between the coasts of Iran and Russia, two countries that may not welcome a project that reduces their influence in the European energy market.

Turkmenistan’s focus on China

Turkmenistan’s level of commitment to the project also remains uncertain, as it has shown no clear interest until 2023, with no concrete steps taken so far.

In contrast, Ashgabat is focusing on strengthening its ties with China, marking 20 years of energy cooperation during which about 460 billion cubic meters of gas have been exported since 2009.

In March, Turkmen leader Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov visited Beijing, where he agreed with President Xi Jinping to expand cooperation in the gas sector.

China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) has also secured a contract to develop the fourth phase of the giant “Galkynysh” field, expected to produce 10 billion cubic meters annually, all of which will be directed to China.

Amid geopolitical shifts and rising energy prices, the trans-Caspian pipeline project may represent a strategic opportunity for Europe to reduce its reliance on traditional sources, but it remains dependent on political balances, the availability of financing, and Turkmenistan’s willingness to shift its focus westward.

Copper prices on the London market stabilized on Tuesday after earlier declining to their lowest levels in three weeks, under pressure from the strength of the US dollar and concerns about a slowdown in the global economy.

As of 07:31 GMT, the price of three-month copper contracts on the London Metal Exchange held steady at $12,996 per metric ton, after earlier in the session recording its lowest level since April 13.

Trading remained limited as the Shanghai Futures Exchange was closed for the Labor Day holiday, with trading set to resume on Wednesday.

On the geopolitical front, the United States and Iran launched new attacks in the Gulf on Monday as part of their rivalry over control of the Strait of Hormuz through reciprocal naval blockades, increasing uncertainty in global markets.

Bitcoin (BTC) extended its gains, surpassing the $81,000 level during Tuesday’s trading, supported by strong inflows into spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Despite the positive price momentum, weak on-chain activity points to the fragility of this rally and the possibility of a near-term correction.

Strong institutional demand supports prices

Institutional demand started the week on a positive note, boosting the performance of the world’s largest cryptocurrency. Data from SoSoValue showed that US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded inflows of $532.21 million on Monday, marking the third consecutive day of positive inflows. If this trend continues, it could support further price gains.

Why does the rally appear fragile?

Data from Santiment indicates that overall activity on the Bitcoin network has declined to its lowest level in two years, despite the price returning above $80,000, levels not seen over the past three months.

Historically, such rallies that are not supported by increased on-chain activity tend to be unstable. One company analyst said: “There is simply less buying fuel supporting this move. If large players decide to take profits, there may not be enough new demand from users to absorb the selling and maintain elevated prices.”

In addition to this divergence, previous reports suggest that the current rally is primarily driven by demand for perpetual futures, while spot markets remain in contraction.

Traders are advised to exercise caution, as the current market structure reflects a more speculative nature rather than being based on strong fundamentals, a pattern similar to what occurred at the beginning of the 2022 bear market.

Price outlook: Key resistance ahead

Bitcoin is trading near the $80,900 level, maintaining a short-term upward trend as it remains above the 50-day and 100-day exponential moving averages, which range between $74,700 and $76,000, and is also trading above the 50% retracement level between the January high and February low at around $78,962.

Momentum indicators point to continued strength, with the MACD showing improvement in trend, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is approaching the 68 level, indicating that the market is nearing overbought territory. Meanwhile, the 200-day moving average at around $81,917 represents the first major resistance level.

On the upside, immediate resistance stands at $81,917, followed by $83,437 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement), then $84,410 as a stronger barrier.

On the downside, the $80,000 level represents initial psychological support, followed by $78,962, while deeper declines may extend toward $75,995, then the broader demand zone near $74,500.

Global oil prices fell on Tuesday, a day after the United States launched an operation aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz to shipping traffic, but exchanges of fire between the United States and Iran limited the pace of the decline.

Maersk said that the vessel “Alliance Fairfax,” a US-flagged car carrier, departed the Gulf through the strait accompanied by the US military.

Tim Waterer said in a note: “This shows that limited safe passage is possible under current conditions and helps reduce some of the worst fears about supply disruptions.”

He added: “However, this remains an exceptional event rather than a full reopening of the passage.”

Brent crude futures fell by $1.38, or 1.2%, to $113.06 per barrel, after closing up 5.8% on Monday. US West Texas Intermediate crude declined by $2.21, or 2.1%, to $104.26 per barrel, following gains of 4.4% in the previous session.

Military escalation pressures the market

Iran launched attacks on Monday in the Gulf to counter US attempts to control the strait, which connects the Gulf to global markets and typically carries about 20% of the world’s daily oil and gas supplies.

Several commercial vessels in the Gulf reported explosions or fires on Monday, and an oil port in the United Arab Emirates—hosting a major US military base—was hit by Iranian missiles, causing fires to break out.

US forces, for their part, announced that they destroyed six small Iranian boats, in addition to cruise missiles and drones.

Priyanka Sachdeva said: “Prices continue to trade within a highly volatile range, driven primarily by ongoing tensions in the Strait of Hormuz.”

She added: “Despite the slight decline in prices during recent sessions, this does not reflect a real improvement in fundamentals, but rather represents a temporary relief following the launch of the US ‘Project Freedom’ operation.”