Gold prices rose in European trading on Wednesday for the first time in three sessions, as part of a rebound attempt from a two-week low, supported by buying activity at corrective levels. Those recovery attempts are being capped by the rise of the US dollar in the foreign exchange market.

With the probability of a US interest rate cut in March receding, global money markets are awaiting later today the release of the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s latest meeting, which are expected to contain strong clues about the path of US monetary policy this year.

Price Overview

• Gold prices today: Gold rose by 1.3% to $4,942.30, from an opening level of $4,878.63, and recorded a session low at $4,854.25.

• At Tuesday’s settlement, gold prices fell by about 2.3%, marking the second consecutive daily loss, and hit a two-week low at $4,841.43 per ounce, due to slower safe-haven demand amid positive political developments, in addition to upward pressure from the stronger US dollar.

US Dollar

The dollar index rose by 0.2% on Wednesday, extending gains for the third straight session, and trading near its highest level in about two weeks, reflecting continued strength in the US currency against a basket of major and minor currencies.

As is known, a stronger US dollar makes dollar-denominated gold bullion less attractive to buyers holding other currencies.

This advance comes as investors focus on buying the dollar as one of the best available opportunities in the FX market, especially with rising expectations that US interest rates will remain unchanged through the first half of this year.

US Interest Rates

• Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee said on Friday that interest rates may decline, but noted that inflation in the services sector remains elevated.

• Goolsbee said on Tuesday that the Federal Reserve could approve “several” additional rate cuts this year if inflation resumes its decline toward the central bank’s 2% target.

• According to the CME FedWatch tool, pricing for keeping US interest rates unchanged at the March meeting is steady at 90%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is priced at 10%.

• To reprice those probabilities, investors are awaiting later today the release of the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s latest monetary policy meeting.

Gold Performance Outlook

Senior analyst at Reliance Securities, Jigar Trivedi, said that overall gold prices are expected to range between $4,700 and $5,100 throughout the year.

SPDR Fund

Holdings of the SPDR Gold Trust, the largest gold-backed ETF in the world, fell on Tuesday by about 1.43 metric tons, bringing the total down to 1,075.61 metric tons, the lowest level since January 15.

The British pound declined in European trading on Wednesday against a basket of global currencies, extending its losses for the third straight day versus the US dollar, and heading toward testing a four-week low, as investors focused on buying the US currency as the most attractive available investment.

Gloomy data on the UK labor market increased the probability that the Bank of England will cut British interest rates next March. To reprice those expectations, investors are awaiting the release later today of the main UK inflation data for January.

Price overview

• British pound price today: The pound fell against the dollar by more than 0.1% to $1.3550, from the opening level at $1.3565, and recorded a session high at $1.3573.

• On Tuesday, the pound lost 0.45% against the dollar, marking its second consecutive daily loss, and hit a four-week low at $1.3496, due to UK labor market data.

US dollar

The dollar index rose by 0.1% on Wednesday, maintaining gains for the third straight session, and trading near its highest level in nearly two weeks, reflecting continued strength in the US currency against a basket of major and minor currencies.

This rise comes as investors focus on buying the dollar as one of the best available opportunities in the foreign exchange market, especially with growing expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged during the first half of this year.

To reprice those expectations, investors await later today the release of the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s latest meeting, which are expected to include strong clues about the future path of US monetary policy.

British interest rates

• Data released yesterday in the United Kingdom showed the unemployment rate rising to its highest level in about ten years in December, alongside a larger-than-expected increase in jobless claims in January.

• Following those data, pricing for a 25 basis point Bank of England rate cut at the March meeting rose from 60% to 85%.

UK inflation data

To reprice current expectations around British interest rates, investors are waiting later today for the release of the main UK inflation data for January, which are expected to have a strong impact on the Bank of England’s monetary policy path.

At 07:00 GMT, headline CPI is expected to rise by 3.0% year-on-year in January, down from 3.4% in December, while core CPI is expected to rise by 3.0% year-on-year from 3.2% in the previous reading.

Outlook for the British pound

We expect here at FX News Today that if UK inflation data come in below market expectations, the probability of a Bank of England rate cut in March will increase, which would lead to further negative pressure on British pound levels.

The New Zealand dollar declined broadly in Asian trading on Wednesday against a basket of major and minor currencies, hitting a two-week low versus its US counterpart, due to heavy selling after the results of the first Reserve Bank of New Zealand monetary policy meeting of 2026.

In line with expectations, the New Zealand central bank kept interest rates unchanged at their lowest level in three and a half years, and signaled the need to keep monetary policy accommodative to support the country’s economic recovery.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s comments were less hawkish than markets had expected, which lifted the probability of a 25 basis point New Zealand rate cut at the upcoming April meeting.

Price overview

• New Zealand dollar price today: The New Zealand dollar fell against the US dollar by about 0.9% to 0.5996, the lowest level since February 6, from the day’s opening level at 0.6049, and recorded a session high at 0.6053.

• The New Zealand dollar ended Tuesday’s session up about 0.3% against the US dollar, marking its second gain in the past three days, within a narrow trading range.

Reserve Bank of New Zealand

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) on Wednesday left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 2.25%, the lowest level since July 2022, in line with most global market expectations.

The New Zealand central bank holds interest rates at their lowest level in 3.5 years.

The RBNZ confirmed that monetary policy needs to remain accommodative for some time to support the weak economic recovery, and that consumer inflation is expected to return to the target range of 1%–3% in the coming months if conditions evolve as expected.

Updated economic projections from the New Zealand central bank indicate the possibility of starting a gradual normalization cycle (rate hikes) by the fourth quarter of 2026 or early 2027, later than some had anticipated.

The RBNZ expects the official cash rate to reach 2.50% in March 2027 versus 2.75% in its previous projections.

New Zealand interest rates

• Following the meeting above, pricing for a 25 basis point New Zealand rate cut at the April 8 meeting rose to above 80%.

• To reprice those expectations, investors will monitor a series of key economic data from New Zealand in the coming period, including inflation, unemployment, and economic growth figures.

Political turmoil in Caracas dominated headlines at the start of 2026. After the dramatic events of early January and the rewriting of Venezuela’s hydrocarbons law on January 29, analysts quickly began debating the ethical dimensions of renewed US engagement in the Orinoco Belt.

But while the world focuses on politics, the real story is unfolding thousands of miles away, inside the distillation towers stretched along the US Gulf Coast.

To understand why Chevron is moving aggressively to expand Venezuelan production, one must look beyond diplomacy and into refining chemistry.

Imbalance in the US crude mix

The United States is now the world’s largest oil producer. That may sound like energy independence, but the reality is more complex.

Most oil produced from shale formations — such as the Permian Basin — is light and sweet, meaning it is easy to refine and low in sulfur.

However, many US refineries were not designed to process this type of crude. During the 1980s and 1990s, refiners invested billions of dollars to increase oil refinery complexity. They installed coking units, hydrocrackers, and desulfurization systems — facilities specifically built to process heavy, high-sulfur crude from countries such as Venezuela and Mexico.

These systems were designed to buy difficult, discounted barrels and convert them into high-value products such as gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, and petrochemical feedstocks.

Running light crude through these systems is technically possible but economically inefficient. It is like using equipment built for processing scrap metal and feeding it premium-grade material — it works, but margins fall.

For a complex refinery such as Chevron’s Pascagoula facility, heavy crude is not just useful — it is optimal.

Disappearance of heavy barrels

For years, the US Gulf Coast relied on imports to supply this heavy crude slate. That supply picture has changed sharply.

Mexican exports have declined as domestic output fell and local refining capacity expanded. Russian medium and heavy barrels largely disappeared from the US market after sanctions. Canadian heavy crude remains important, but transport constraints prevent it from being a perfect substitute.

The result is a structural refining gap: Gulf Coast refineries need heavy crude to maximize margins, but global availability has become more limited.

This is where Venezuela returns to the picture.

Venezuelan grades such as Merey 16 are dense, high-sulfur, and technically challenging — but exactly what complex refineries are built to run. In the right system, these barrels can generate strong refining margins because they are usually priced at a discount to lighter crudes.

Chevron’s strategic advantage

Chevron’s positioning was not accidental. While many Western companies exited Venezuela during the nationalization and sanctions years, Chevron maintained a presence through special US Treasury licenses, allowing it to preserve infrastructure, relationships, and operational continuity.

Now, with legal reforms and shifting geopolitical conditions, the company holds a first-mover advantage. Analysts expect significant production increases supported by solid project economics. That has been reflected in the company’s share price, which has risen more than 20% since the start of the year.

Chevron can produce heavy oil in Venezuela at relatively low cost, then refine it in its high-complexity US facilities. That allows it to capture value across multiple stages: production, logistics, and end refining margins.

In practice, this is vertical integration working as designed. Instead of selling crude into a volatile market, the company can internalize the economics of the barrel and its derived products, helping balance oil price cycles — higher crude prices support upstream, while lower crude prices support refining.

Molecules drive markets

Public debate around Venezuelan oil is often framed in ethical or political terms. Those considerations matter, but markets ultimately respond to physical realities.

Refineries do not respond to ideology — they respond to API gravity, sulfur content, and product yield curves.

As long as the United States operates some of the most complex refining systems in the world, demand for heavy crude will remain.

Chevron appears to understand that today’s real competitive edge is not just producing more oil, but controlling the right type of molecules. In a market where heavy crude supply is tightening, those molecules translate directly into higher refining margins, stronger cash flow, and a durable competitive advantage.