Gold prices rose nearly 2.5% in European trading on Monday, extending gains for a second consecutive session, supported by strong demand for safe-haven assets after the United States carried out a complex military strike in Venezuela and arrested President Nicolás Maduro over the weekend.

The advance came despite a strong rise in the US dollar against a basket of major global currencies, ahead of the release of a highly important set of US economic data that is expected to provide strong clues on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate path this year.

Price Overview

• Gold prices today: Gold prices rose by around 2.5% to $4,434.50, from an opening level of $4,332.32, and recorded a low at $4,332.32.

• At Friday’s settlement, the precious metal gained 0.3%, marking its second advance in the past three sessions, as part of a rebound from a two-week low.

The US strike in Venezuela

US forces carried out a large-scale military operation early on Saturday, during which they arrested Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, and airlifted them to New York to face charges related to drug trafficking and terrorism.

Reports said the US strike resulted in civilian casualties. In the aftermath, Vice President Delcy Rodríguez announced she had assumed the presidency on an interim basis, while stressing that Maduro remains the country’s legitimate president.

The US dollar

The US dollar index rose by 0.25% on Monday, extending gains for a fourth consecutive session and reaching a four-week high of 98.49 points, reflecting continued strength in the US currency against a basket of global currencies.

The move comes as investors focus on a crucial set of US macroeconomic indicators due later this week, which are widely seen as key to shaping expectations for US monetary policy this year.

Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s December meeting showed a tendency among US policymakers to proceed cautiously in upcoming meetings, with some participants favoring keeping interest rates unchanged “for some time” following December’s rate cut.

US interest rates

• Anna Paulson, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, said on Saturday that further rate cuts by central banks may take time after the aggressive easing cycle seen last year.

• According to the CME FedWatch tool from CME Group, markets currently price an 83% probability that US interest rates will remain unchanged at the January 2026 meeting, and a 17% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut.

• Investors are currently pricing in two US rate cuts over the course of next year, while the Federal Reserve’s own projections point to just one 25 basis point cut.

• To reassess these expectations, investors are later today awaiting the release of Institute for Supply Management data on US manufacturing activity for December.

Gold outlook

Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade, said events in Venezuela have revived safe-haven demand, with gold and silver among the main beneficiaries, as investors seek protection against geopolitical risks.

SPDR Gold Trust

Gold holdings at the SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, fell by around 5.43 metric tons on Friday, bringing total holdings down to 1,065.13 metric tons, the lowest level since December 22.

The euro fell in European trading on Monday against a basket of global currencies, deepening its losses for a fourth consecutive session against the US dollar and hitting a four-week low, marking a negative start to the week. The move comes as investors continue to favor the US currency, amid weak expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at its January meeting.

At the same time, expectations for a European Central Bank rate cut in February have declined, particularly given the recent improvement in economic activity across the euro area, alongside expectations that this improvement will continue as downside risks fade.

Price Overview

• Euro exchange rate today: The euro fell 0.4% against the dollar to $1.1672, the lowest level since December 10, from an opening price of $1.1720, after touching a session high of $1.1721.

• The euro ended Friday’s session down by around 0.2% against the dollar, marking its third consecutive daily loss.

US Dollar

The US dollar index rose 0.25% on Monday, extending its gains for a fourth straight session and reaching a four-week high of 98.49 points, reflecting continued strength in the US currency against a basket of global currencies.

Currency traders largely ignored political developments in Venezuela over the weekend, including the US military operation and the arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.

Market participants are instead focusing on a key set of US macroeconomic indicators due later this week, which are expected to provide important clues about the path of Federal Reserve monetary policy this year.

The minutes of the Federal Reserve’s December meeting showed a tendency among US policymakers to adopt a more cautious stance in upcoming meetings, with some participants suggesting that keeping interest rates unchanged “for some time” after the December cut could be the most appropriate option.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, market pricing for the probability that US interest rates will remain unchanged at the January meeting is currently steady at 83%, while the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut stands at 17%.

European Interest Rates

• Money market pricing for the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut by the European Central Bank in February remains below 10%.

• To reassess these expectations, investors are awaiting further economic data from the euro area, particularly on inflation, unemployment, and wage growth.

Interest Rate Differential

Following the Federal Reserve’s latest decision, the interest rate gap between Europe and the United States has narrowed to 160 basis points in favor of US rates, the smallest gap since May 2022, which supports a stronger euro-dollar exchange rate over the medium term.

The Japanese yen declined in Asian trading on Monday at the start of the week against a basket of major and minor currencies, hitting a two-week low versus the US dollar, as demand for the US currency remained strong and investors largely ignored the US operation in Venezuela over the weekend.

With the majority of Bank of Japan board members leaning toward continuing interest-rate hikes through 2026, global markets are closely watching for clearer evidence on the future path of Japan’s monetary policy normalization.

Price Overview

• Japanese yen exchange rate today: The dollar rose 0.3% against the yen to ¥157.30, the highest level since December 22, from an opening level of ¥156.81, while the session low was ¥156.68.

• The yen ended Friday’s session up by less than 0.1% against the dollar, marking its first gain in three sessions, amid thin trading due to a Japanese market holiday.

US Dollar

The US dollar index rose 0.25% on Monday, extending its gains for a fourth consecutive session and reaching a four-week high of 98.49 points, reflecting continued strength in the US currency against a basket of global currencies.

Currency traders largely overlooked political developments in Venezuela over the weekend, including the US military operation and the arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.

Market participants are instead focusing on a critical set of US macroeconomic indicators due later this week, which are expected to provide important signals on the direction of Federal Reserve monetary policy this year.

Japanese Interest Rates

• Last week in Tokyo, the summary of opinions from the Bank of Japan’s most recent monetary policy meeting—held on December 18 and 19—was released, showing that the central bank raised its policy rate to 0.75%, the highest level since 1995.

• The summary revealed a clear hawkish shift among most board members, with many highlighting the need for further rate hikes in the future. Members agreed that gradually raising interest rates and scaling back monetary stimulus are necessary to ensure long-term price stability.

• Market pricing for the probability of a quarter-percentage-point rate hike by the Bank of Japan at its January meeting remains steady at around 20%.

• To reassess these expectations, investors are awaiting further data on inflation, unemployment, and wage growth in Japan.

As trading in 2025 draws to a close, analysts and investors across global markets agree on one clear conclusion: this was, without question, the year of silver.

While other assets captured headlines early in the year, silver quietly built a historic launch base that ultimately delivered extraordinary annual gains exceeding 150%, marking the metal’s strongest performance in more than four decades, specifically since 1979.

Breaking Historical Barriers

The year 2025 was not a typical rally, but rather a period of genuine price liberation. In October, silver decisively broke above the $49.76 per ounce level, the long-standing record high that had held since April 2011.

Following that breakout, silver entered a powerful and uninterrupted upward phase, repeatedly setting new records and ultimately reaching an all-time high of $83.97 per ounce on December 29, 2025.

Key Drivers Behind the Rally

While global attention focused on record highs in gold, silver delivered the year’s biggest surprise, posting gains that stunned markets. This explosive move was fueled by a rare convergence of structural challenges and investment opportunities during 2025, restoring silver’s status as a strategic metal. The main drivers included:

1. Retail Investor Demand

Silver saw an unprecedented surge in demand from retail investors and individual buyers, particularly for physical bullion and coins.

This momentum was driven by silver’s prolonged undervaluation relative to gold, whose prices had already reached historic highs. As a result, silver bullion emerged as a more accessible and attractive option for investors seeking to preserve wealth against the erosion of fiat currency purchasing power.

2. Strong Industrial Demand

Silver solidified its role as a critical input for future technologies, with industrial demand reaching a historic peak in 2025 amid rapid expansion in solar energy and electric vehicle production.

In addition, silver became increasingly embedded in infrastructure linked to artificial intelligence technologies, sectors that consume large volumes well beyond what current supply can comfortably meet.

3. Global Supply Deficit

Supply pressures intensified as the silver market entered its fifth consecutive year of structural deficit.

Declining output from major mines and the depletion of available global inventories made it impossible for supply to keep pace with surging demand, propelling prices to unprecedented levels.

4. Global Monetary Policy Shifts

The year 2025 marked a turning point in global monetary policy, with the US Federal Reserve and other major central banks continuing a cycle of interest rate cuts.

This environment sharply reduced the opportunity cost of holding precious metals, prompting large investment funds to channel substantial liquidity into both gold and silver markets.

Additional Supporting Factors

Safe-haven demand increased sharply amid escalating geopolitical tensions throughout 2025, driving capital flows into precious metals as protection against economic instability.

The decline in the US dollar, driven by rate cuts, enhanced silver’s appeal to international buyers by lowering its cost in non-dollar terms and boosting global demand.

Aggressive price forecasts and extensive media coverage also played a role, as bold projections from prominent analysts attracted widespread attention, reinforcing speculative demand and helping turn expectations into reality before year-end.

Silver Outperforms Gold

Spot silver prices surged by roughly 150% in 2025, far outperforming gold, which gained more than 70%. This outperformance was supported by strong investment demand, silver’s inclusion among US critical minerals, and sustained buying by major funds.

Kiyosaki’s Call and the 2026 Outlook

Financial author Robert Kiyosaki, best known for Rich Dad Poor Dad, was among the most vocal proponents of silver’s rally, accurately predicting a move to $70 per ounce before the end of 2025.

With the year now closing at record levels, attention has shifted to his more ambitious 2026 forecast, which envisions silver reaching $200 per ounce.

While such a target may appear extreme, current market dynamics suggest that silver’s price floor has permanently shifted higher. With ongoing erosion in fiat currency purchasing power and rising industrial dependence, silver appears to have left behind its long-standing status as an underappreciated metal, entering a new era of price leadership in global markets.

Bullish Expectations for 2026

Forecasts for 2026 vary between cautious optimism and strong bullish conviction. Although most institutions stop short of Kiyosaki’s $200 target, there is broad consensus that silver will remain on an upward trajectory. Key institutional outlooks include:

Goldman Sachs expects silver to be the primary strategic metal for the green transition, projecting an average price range of $85–$100 per ounce in 2026, supported by AI-related demand and solar expansion. The bank believes the structural supply deficit will make sustained moves below $70 increasingly difficult.

UBS anticipates continued outperformance versus gold in 2026, targeting around $95 per ounce, citing ongoing Federal Reserve easing, a weaker dollar, and increased institutional allocations to silver.

Citigroup has raised its outlook, flagging the potential for prices to reach $110 per ounce in the second half of 2026, driven by explosive demand from the electric vehicle sector and the risk of acute shortages in deliverable physical silver.

The Silver Institute refrained from assigning a specific price target but warned that the supply-demand gap could reach critical levels in 2026. It suggested that prices above $120 per ounce may be required to incentivize higher mine output or encourage investors to release holdings to meet industrial demand.

Commerzbank takes a more conservative stance, expecting prices to stabilize around $80–$85 per ounce. The bank cautioned that the sharp gains of 2025 could trigger profit-taking early in 2026 before the broader uptrend resumes.