Gold prices rose in European trading on Thursday, heading for their first gain in four sessions, supported by a weaker US dollar and a decline in global oil prices after US Central Command announced the end of military strikes on Iran.

Markets are closely watching the release of more key economic data from the United States, as well as comments from Federal Reserve officials, for fresh clues on the path of US interest rates.

The Price

• Gold prices rose 1.0% to $4,117.80 an ounce, from the opening level of $4,077.01, after hitting a low of $4,054.36.

• At Wednesday's settlement, gold prices lost 0.7%, posting their third consecutive daily decline, pressured by higher oil prices and renewed inflation concerns.

US dollar

The dollar index fell 0.3% on Thursday, extending losses for a second consecutive session and reflecting weaker levels for the US currency against a basket of major and minor currencies.

The decline came amid slower safe-haven buying of the currency, especially after some reports suggested that the current US-Iran military violations would not lead to a renewed war in the Middle East.

Global oil prices

Oil prices fell more than 2.0% on Thursday, retreating from two-week highs amid correction and profit-taking, while reports also pointed to continued shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz.

Latest developments in the Iran conflict

• US Central Command (CENTCOM) announced the end of the current round of airstrikes on military targets inside Iran.

• The US bombardment focused on coastal cities and facilities along the Strait of Hormuz, destroying two maritime traffic control towers and two piers at the strategic Port of Chabahar.

• The US military said it had destroyed more than 60 Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps naval attack boats and targeted air defense systems and coastal radar installations.

• Iran's Revolutionary Guard responded by launching ballistic missiles and drones targeting 85 US military sites in Bahrain and Kuwait.

• Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said Tehran would not back down, and that the strait would only be opened under "Iranian arrangements and procedures," not US threats.

• US President Donald Trump said the American strikes came in response to Iranian attacks on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz.

US interest rates

• According to CME Group's FedWatch tool, markets are currently pricing a 73% probability that the Federal Reserve will leave interest rates unchanged at its July meeting, and a 27% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike.

• Markets are also pricing a 17% probability that the Federal Reserve will leave interest rates unchanged at its December meeting, and an 83% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike.

• To reassess those probabilities, investors are closely monitoring the release of more US economic data, along with comments from Federal Reserve officials.

Gold outlook

Kelvin Wong, senior market analyst for Asia-Pacific at OANDA, said the catalyst supporting the bearish trend in gold is the repricing of the possibility of a second Federal Reserve rate hike, expected in the first quarter of next year.

Wong added that after yesterday's skirmishes, the temporary ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran is now on the verge of collapse, which could lead to sharp market volatility.

SPDR fund

Gold holdings at SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, were little changed on Wednesday, leaving the total at 1,002.51 metric tons.

The euro rose in European trading on Thursday against a basket of major currencies, remaining in positive territory for a second consecutive session against the US dollar as demand for the greenback as a safe-haven asset eased, particularly after US Central Command announced the conclusion of its military operations against Iran.

Following the recent surge in oil prices triggered by renewed tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, expectations have increased that the European Central Bank could deliver one additional 25-basis-point interest rate hike before the end of the year.

The Price

• The euro rose more than 0.1% against the US dollar to $1.1430, from today's opening level of $1.1416, after touching an intraday low of $1.1414.

• The euro closed Wednesday's session up by less than 0.1% against the dollar, marking its fourth daily gain in the past five sessions, supported by expectations of higher European interest rates.

US dollar

The dollar index fell 0.1% on Thursday, extending losses for a second straight session and reflecting broad weakness in the US currency against a basket of major currencies.

The decline came as demand for the dollar as a safe-haven asset slowed after reports suggested that the latest US-Iran military exchanges were unlikely to trigger a renewed war in the Middle East.

Global oil prices

Oil prices fell by around 0.5% on Thursday, retreating from two-week highs amid profit-taking and corrective trading, while reports indicated that shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz continued uninterrupted.

Latest developments in the Iran conflict

• US Central Command (CENTCOM) announced the conclusion of the current round of airstrikes on military targets inside Iran.

• The US strikes focused on coastal cities and facilities along the Strait of Hormuz, destroying two maritime traffic control towers and two piers at the strategic Port of Chabahar.

• The US military said it had destroyed more than 60 Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps naval attack boats, while also targeting air defense systems and coastal radar installations.

• Iran's Revolutionary Guard responded by launching ballistic missiles and drones targeting 85 US military sites in Bahrain and Kuwait.

• Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said Tehran would not back down, stressing that the Strait of Hormuz would only reopen under "Iranian arrangements and procedures," not under US threats.

• US President Donald Trump said the American strikes were carried out in response to Iranian attacks on commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz.

European interest rates

• Money markets are currently pricing around a 10% probability of a 25-basis-point European Central Bank rate hike at the July meeting.

• The probability of a 25-basis-point ECB rate hike in December has risen to above 90%.

• Investors are awaiting additional eurozone data on inflation, unemployment, and wage growth to reassess those expectations.

The Japanese yen rose in Asian trade on Thursday against a basket of major and minor currencies, heading for its first gain in five days against the US dollar as it attempted to recover from 40-year lows, while Japanese authorities remained on alert to support the currency against excessive moves.

The US dollar weakened after some reports suggested that the latest exchange of military strikes between the United States and Iran would not lead to a renewed war, and that negotiations would resume very soon to complete the roadmap under the 60-day ceasefire agreement.

The Price

• The Japanese yen exchange rate today: The dollar fell against the yen by around 0.15% to 162.36 yen, from today's opening level of 162.58 yen, after hitting a high of 162.61 yen.

• The yen ended Wednesday's trading down 0.3% against the dollar, posting its fourth consecutive daily loss and hitting a one-week low of 162.71 yen, near its weakest level in 40 years at 162.84 yen.

Japanese authorities

The yen has returned to focus once again, especially after approaching its lowest levels against the US dollar since 1986, raising the possibility of intervention by Japanese authorities to protect the local currency from excessive weakness.

US dollar

The dollar index fell 0.1% on Thursday, extending losses for the second consecutive session and reflecting weaker levels for the US currency against a basket of global currencies.

The decline came amid slower safe-haven buying of the US currency, especially after some reports suggested that the current US-Iran military violations would not lead to a renewed war in the Middle East.

Global oil prices

Oil prices fell by around 0.5% on Thursday, retreating from their highest levels in two weeks, as prices corrected lower and investors took profits, while reports also pointed to continued shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz.

Japanese interest rates

• The probability of the Bank of Japan raising interest rates by 25 basis points at its July meeting is currently steady below 25%.

• To reprice those odds, investors are awaiting more data on inflation, unemployment, and wages in Japan.

Minutes from the US Federal Reserve's June 16-17 meeting revealed that policymakers were divided over the future path of interest rates, discussing scenarios that could justify rate cuts if inflation slows, while also considering the possibility of further hikes should price pressures persist.

The meeting was the first chaired by Kevin Warsh following his appointment as head of the Federal Open Market Committee. During the post-meeting press conference, he described the discussions as "a family disagreement," which ultimately ended with a unanimous decision to leave the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, where it has remained throughout 2026.

Even so, the minutes showed no signs of deep divisions, instead presenting the range of views expressed by participants without pointing to any clear consensus within the committee.

They also indicated that the Summary of Economic Projections' dot plot, in which Warsh did not participate, leaned narrowly toward one additional rate hike this year, followed by rate cuts in each of the following two years.

The minutes noted that a significant number of participants believed the appropriate policy rate at year-end would be within or slightly below the current target range.

Meanwhile, another sizable group of participants judged that the appropriate year-end policy rate would be above the current range.

The minutes emphasized that all participants agreed future policy decisions would depend on incoming economic data.

Shift toward shorter policy communications

The 14-page meeting minutes were slightly shorter than usual, reflecting Kevin Warsh's preference for reducing the Federal Reserve's forward guidance on the future direction of monetary policy.

The post-meeting statement was also about one-third shorter than previous statements, a change that received broad support from participants.

According to the minutes, several members believed the time was right for substantial changes to the post-meeting statement, while the majority viewed a more concise statement as offering clear advantages.

The committee also removed language that had previously suggested a bias toward future interest rate cuts after most participants indicated they no longer wished to retain that wording.

In addition, the statement dropped several standard paragraphs describing current economic conditions and the committee's approach to achieving its dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment.

The beginning of Warsh's tenure

The release of the minutes comes less than two months after Kevin Warsh assumed the role of Federal Reserve Chair following his nomination by US President Donald Trump.

Trump had spent years criticizing former Fed Chair Jerome Powell for refusing to cut interest rates.

Since taking office, Warsh has pledged sweeping reforms to the central bank's operating framework.

During his press conference following the June meeting, he announced the formation of five working groups to review several areas, including the Fed's communication strategy with financial markets. The minutes also noted that some participants welcomed the opportunity to reassess the communication tools and practices used by the Federal Open Market Committee.

Since then, Warsh has appeared publicly only once, at the European Central Bank's forum in Portugal, where he largely refrained from offering clear signals about the future direction of monetary policy, remaining consistent with his preference for limiting forward guidance.